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Buying into the Bills?

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Buying into the Bills?

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:50 pm

"Start Fitz!"
"Start Jackson!"

This is what the fantasy sites are telling us this week, and certainly nobody can argue in favor of the Patriots pass defense; it gives away real estate like banks dumping condemned foreclosures.

But rushing?

In Week #1, the Pats gave up a whopping 39 yards and 0 TDs on the ground to running backs. (QB Henne scrambled for 59 yards and a score, and Bush got his TD in the air).

Week #2, the Pats gave up less than 100 on the ground, and 1 TD. They also held Tolbert to 10 yards on 9 carries, 1 of them a 7-yarder. No TDs for him.

In two games, the Pats have given up a total of 137 yards and 1 (ground) TD to opposing running backs.

Well, big deal, right? The RBs made up in the air what they didn't get on the ground, so now we have to ask, in those crazy high-scoring Buffalo games, how did Jackson fare in the air?

Last week, 2 catches, 23 yards, 0 scores
Week one, 1 catch, 5 yards, 0 scores

So I ask you: is Jackson a solid start this week vs. the Patriots?
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby Mr.Joshua » Sat Sep 24, 2011 3:23 am

Good point, big difference between NE's run and pass D. I'd say between a low end #2 and a flex play this week.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby mattb47 » Sat Sep 24, 2011 4:40 am

Good points but something I wonder is how much of New England's "success" against RBs has to do with the teams they've played and how those games have gone rather than the caliber of their rushing defense. They have given up a pretty hearty 4.5 ypc to RBs this season (in the bottom half of the NFL) and according to the defensive analysis I've been working through, New England is giving up just slightly under average of what RBs have averaged in the two games they've played this season. They've played in what has essentially been 2 shootouts with over 700 yards of passing in each game and while they may have shut down Tolbert, Mathews managed a pretty nice 12 carries for 64 yard day (5.3 ypc) and we already knew that Reggie Bush can't be an every down back and between the tackles runner so it's hard to base projections for Jackson on that first game against Miami.

Something that is somewhat encouraging for me is that Buffalo has had a shootout game like this game against New England could turn out being and yet they still didn't forget about Jackson and still got him his touches especially with opportunity to score. Against a soft New England defense I think we'll see a solid dose of Jackson mixed in to at least attempt to keep Brady off the field. I'd be surprised with less than 20 touches for Jackson in this one and I think he'll end up with 100+ total yards and a TD which makes him a good play in my book.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby TaDa » Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:57 am

Personally, I don't think that the Pats' run D is all that stout. As mentioned, look at who they played. Bush would have had more rushing yards, but he's always been a back heavily involved in the passing game. Same with Mathews. Add up the numbers that Bush and Mathews put together out of the backfield, and they had monster games against the Pats. My issue with using FJax this week, is that I think that the Pats will be up big. The Bills have a good pass rush, but if Brady gets any time in the pocket, he's going to surgically dismember the Bills' secondary. If the Bills are down by 2 TDs or more, they're going to tell Fitzpatrick to start airing it out, which will hurt Jackson's touches. Overall, I still think that he's a solid play though.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby DraftDodger » Sat Sep 24, 2011 12:25 pm

TaDa wrote: Add up the numbers that Bush and Mathews put together out of the backfield, and they had monster games against the Pats.


On the ground they combined for 102 and 1 TD. That's over two weeks. To put it in perspective, per game that's 51 yds each and 1/2 of a TD. Are those monster games? Granted neither of them is the style of runner that Jackson is, but keep in mind that their numbers were boosted (118 yds, 1 TD) through the air, something we don't expect for Jackson.

Also, who is BB going to try and shut down? None of the receivers are considered elite, and are unlikely to draw extra attention. No Gates this time around either. So if BB's whole defensive game plan is built around stopping Jackson, how successful is Jackson likely to be?

I'm pretty much forced to start Jackson this week (and will hope for a TD) since my other flex option is Lynch (who I'm not ready to trust in that dismal offense). If my opponent's line-up wasn't decimated by injuries, I'd be worried about starting Jackson. I think some people out there ought to be worried.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby mattb47 » Sun Sep 25, 2011 2:07 am

DraftDodger wrote:
TaDa wrote: Add up the numbers that Bush and Mathews put together out of the backfield, and they had monster games against the Pats.


On the ground they combined for 102 and 1 TD. That's over two weeks. To put it in perspective, per game that's 51 yds each and 1/2 of a TD. Are those monster games? Granted neither of them is the style of runner that Jackson is, but keep in mind that their numbers were boosted (118 yds, 1 TD) through the air, something we don't expect for Jackson.

Also, who is BB going to try and shut down? None of the receivers are considered elite, and are unlikely to draw extra attention. No Gates this time around either. So if BB's whole defensive game plan is built around stopping Jackson, how successful is Jackson likely to be?

I'm pretty much forced to start Jackson this week (and will hope for a TD) since my other flex option is Lynch (who I'm not ready to trust in that dismal offense). If my opponent's line-up wasn't decimated by injuries, I'd be worried about starting Jackson. I think some people out there ought to be worried.


But you completely ignored that the Pats aren't really all that good against the run...they just aren't. They played against a RB who is really more of a WR playing RB (Bush) and then against the Chargers, Tolbert may not have had a good day but Mathews ran pretty easily against them averaging over 5 ypc. And Jackson is definitely a more polished runner than Mathews and I think he'll have plenty of success...the Bills have been winning through the air and I don't think we'll see the Pats focus on stopping the running game when they've been making all their plays in the passing game.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby Hippo45 » Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:13 am

mattb47 wrote:But you completely ignored that the Pats aren't really all that good against the run...they just aren't. They played against a RB who is really more of a WR playing RB (Bush) and then against the Chargers, Tolbert may not have had a good day but Mathews ran pretty easily against them averaging over 5 ypc. And Jackson is definitely a more polished runner than Mathews and I think he'll have plenty of success...the Bills have been winning through the air and I don't think we'll see the Pats focus on stopping the running game when they've been making all their plays in the passing game.


The Pats added Haynesworth specifically to plug up the middle and so far he had done a good job of stopping the inside run. The Pats give up a lot of yards through the air because A) they are weaker against the pass and B) score a lot of points so teams need to pass a lot to catch up. Jackson is a more polished runner than Mathews? I don't see how you can make that conclusion based off how they have played this season.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:43 am

Do you guys think Nelson will have a decent game against the Pats today? Thinking of starting him over Wayne and Bowe.....
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby LMack » Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:48 am

I think what needs to be considered when talking about RB plays vs. the Patriots is how susceptible they have been to check downs and screen passes. Reggie Bush caught 9 passes for 56 yards and a TD. Ryan Mathews caught 7 passes for 62 yards. Mike Tolbert caught 8 passes for 73 yards.

The Bills haven't been looking for their backs too much on passing downs, but one big reception could change the day for Fred Jackson.
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Re: Buying into the Bills?

Postby LMack » Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:52 am

latsprewell20002000 wrote:Do you guys think Nelson will have a decent game against the Pats today? Thinking of starting him over Wayne and Bowe.....


Seems very weird on paper at this point in the season but I have David Nelson ranked higher than both Bowe/Wayne this week. Neither Kerry Collins nor Matt Cassel have shown half the ability to get the ball to their wideouts that Fitzpatrick and Nelson have done two weeks in a row.
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