joester wrote:4-9 gets 3 pieces of paper

5-8 (800) gets 2 pieces

5-8 (900) gets 1 piece

I totally disagree...

Do you really think that one 5-8 team deserves

TWICE the chance of getting the best pick than the other 5-8 team? Here's how I'd do it (keep in mind that I tend to overthink these things...) I'm actually going to give you several prescriptions ...

I'd also probably do things electronically (random number generator and such)

anyway...

SETUP I

4-9 is 2.5 games under .500 record

5-8 is 1.5 games under .500 record

I'd give the 4-9 team 25 (2.5*10) "lottery balls" and split the remaining 30 ( 1.5*2*10) between the other two teams based on their point totals

(1700-800)/1700 * 30 = approx = 16

(1700-900)/1700 * 30 = approx 14

so I'd give the team that had 900 points 14 "lottery balls" and the team that scored 800 16...

not sure how well this would work if you were to extend it to teams that have

above 500 records or how to modify the algorithm

SETUP II

Roughly what the NBA does... purely by record, so the 4-9 team gets 2 and both 5-8 teams get 1 each .. .seems fair enough...

SETUP III

If you believe that the record is more of an indication of matchup luck you might as well do it puirely by points (values in parentheses are how much you think each "extra" 100 points should be worth . . . )

1000 points = 8 (or 6)

900 points = 9 (or 8)

800 points = 10 (or 10)

If I were actually doing this method very seriously I'd take the average number of points scored by all teams, find the standard deviation for all the teams and give the "mean" number of points 100 lottery balls subtract/add 10 balls for each sigma above/below this mean... just as an example for the three values you gave...

AVG = 900

SIGMA = approx. = 81

so... 800 points gets 112 lottery balls

900 points gets 100 lottery balls

1000 points gets 88 lottery balls...

of course the above values would be much different if you took into consideration the average and standard deviation for the entire league, I would imagine that the average is probably around 1200 points and the standard deviation about 90... which gives values of (120, 130 and 140 ... or simly 12,13,14... etc)

anyway. sorry for the overkill statistics... sometimes I like to waste time...