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lottery time

Postby paperbags » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:05 pm

14 team keeper league and this year we are going to have a lottery for the three worst teams for next years first three picks. How many pieces of paper should each team get?

The teams records are...
4-9 w/1000 pts scored
5-8 w/800 pts scored
5-8 w/900 pts scored

Should the 4-9 team have more than the other two. Any advice would be great.
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Postby joester » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:10 pm

4-9 gets 3 pieces of paper

5-8 (800) gets 2 pieces

5-8 (900) gets 1 piece
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Re: lottery time

Postby Free Bagel » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:11 pm

paperbags wrote:Should the 4-9 team have more than the other two. Any advice would be great.


I would say yes, points should only be used as a tiebreaker between teams with the same record.
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:11 pm

joester wrote:4-9 gets 3 pieces of paper

5-8 (800) gets 2 pieces

5-8 (900) gets 1 piece

I think that would be the easiest way.
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Postby 4Pack » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:43 pm

I don't really care too go by records so much when determining draft order for next season. Since FF is a huge part luck....it is not uncommon too see great teams sitting way down in the division standings. At the sametime...it is also not uncommon too see very very mediocre teams high in the standings. We have a team in our league this season who has scored the 2nd LEAST points in the league..yet is also sitting in 2nd place. That team is winning almost every week by sheer luck of the draw. On the other hand...my team in that league is loaded and has the 2nd most points and I am in 7th place. Again...luck of the draw has killed me.

We will also go by record too determine draft order next season. While I am very happy too be able too get a high pick....too be honest....I don't need it. The team in 2nd place IMO needs it more since it is unlikey that his luck will continue next season as well. He has a borderline pathetic team and that draft pick he will get will not help his team a hell of alot.
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disagree...

Postby matmat » Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:01 am

joester wrote:4-9 gets 3 pieces of paper

5-8 (800) gets 2 pieces

5-8 (900) gets 1 piece


I totally disagree...

Do you really think that one 5-8 team deserves TWICE the chance of getting the best pick than the other 5-8 team? Here's how I'd do it (keep in mind that I tend to overthink these things...) I'm actually going to give you several prescriptions ...
I'd also probably do things electronically (random number generator and such)

anyway...

SETUP I

4-9 is 2.5 games under .500 record
5-8 is 1.5 games under .500 record
I'd give the 4-9 team 25 (2.5*10) "lottery balls" and split the remaining 30 ( 1.5*2*10) between the other two teams based on their point totals

(1700-800)/1700 * 30 = approx = 16
(1700-900)/1700 * 30 = approx 14
so I'd give the team that had 900 points 14 "lottery balls" and the team that scored 800 16...

not sure how well this would work if you were to extend it to teams that have
above 500 records or how to modify the algorithm

SETUP II
Roughly what the NBA does... purely by record, so the 4-9 team gets 2 and both 5-8 teams get 1 each .. .seems fair enough...

SETUP III
If you believe that the record is more of an indication of matchup luck you might as well do it puirely by points (values in parentheses are how much you think each "extra" 100 points should be worth . . . )
1000 points = 8 (or 6)
900 points = 9 (or 8)
800 points = 10 (or 10)

If I were actually doing this method very seriously I'd take the average number of points scored by all teams, find the standard deviation for all the teams and give the "mean" number of points 100 lottery balls subtract/add 10 balls for each sigma above/below this mean... just as an example for the three values you gave...

AVG = 900
SIGMA = approx. = 81

so... 800 points gets 112 lottery balls
900 points gets 100 lottery balls
1000 points gets 88 lottery balls...

of course the above values would be much different if you took into consideration the average and standard deviation for the entire league, I would imagine that the average is probably around 1200 points and the standard deviation about 90... which gives values of (120, 130 and 140 ... or simly 12,13,14... etc)

anyway. sorry for the overkill statistics... sometimes I like to waste time...
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Re: disagree...

Postby chilifries » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:24 am

matmat wrote:
joester wrote:4-9 gets 3 pieces of paper

5-8 (800) gets 2 pieces

5-8 (900) gets 1 piece


I totally disagree...

Do you really think that one 5-8 team deserves TWICE the chance of getting the best pick than the other 5-8 team? Here's how I'd do it (keep in mind that I tend to overthink these things...) I'm actually going to give you several prescriptions ...
I'd also probably do things electronically (random number generator and such)

anyway...

SETUP I

4-9 is 2.5 games under .500 record
5-8 is 1.5 games under .500 record
I'd give the 4-9 team 25 (2.5*10) "lottery balls" and split the remaining 30 ( 1.5*2*10) between the other two teams based on their point totals

(1700-800)/1700 * 30 = approx = 16
(1700-900)/1700 * 30 = approx 14
so I'd give the team that had 900 points 14 "lottery balls" and the team that scored 800 16...

not sure how well this would work if you were to extend it to teams that have
above 500 records or how to modify the algorithm

SETUP II
Roughly what the NBA does... purely by record, so the 4-9 team gets 2 and both 5-8 teams get 1 each .. .seems fair enough...

SETUP III
If you believe that the record is more of an indication of matchup luck you might as well do it puirely by points (values in parentheses are how much you think each "extra" 100 points should be worth . . . )
1000 points = 8 (or 6)
900 points = 9 (or 8)
800 points = 10 (or 10)

If I were actually doing this method very seriously I'd take the average number of points scored by all teams, find the standard deviation for all the teams and give the "mean" number of points 100 lottery balls subtract/add 10 balls for each sigma above/below this mean... just as an example for the three values you gave...

AVG = 900
SIGMA = approx. = 81

so... 800 points gets 112 lottery balls
900 points gets 100 lottery balls
1000 points gets 88 lottery balls...

of course the above values would be much different if you took into consideration the average and standard deviation for the entire league, I would imagine that the average is probably around 1200 points and the standard deviation about 90... which gives values of (120, 130 and 140 ... or simly 12,13,14... etc)

anyway. sorry for the overkill statistics... sometimes I like to waste time...




8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o 8-o


Oh now I get it, you are a smart guy matmat. :-B
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Postby latraffic » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:39 am

Uh... I agree with Matmat. :-o

Seriously, I'd weight it by the total points with the 5-8 (800) team needing the most "help" and the 4-9 (1000) team needing the least. The final season record can be so screwed up (as noted above) by luck and other flukes. Just this week we had a team in playoff contention score an impressive 137 points only to LOOSE to a lower placed team that scored 176 points! Approx. twice what the team has scored on average this year. GO FIGURE.
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Postby phunkadelic » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:44 am

I'd go strictly with percentage of wins compared to one another.

4 wins guy get 5 balls
5 wins guys each get 4 balls
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Postby Poobah » Tue Dec 02, 2003 1:09 pm

if it's a true lottery, you should allow every team, or at least every team that missed the playoffs to get a chance at the top pick. That way, the 5 win team with less points would get one more shot at the top prize, but if say 8 teams out of 14 make the playoffs, you could do the lottery like this:

9th place - 1 ball
10th - 2 balls
11th - 3 balls
12th - 4 balls
13th - 5 balls
14th - 6 balls

That way the teams with same records wouldn't get an overwhelmingly higher chance at the #1 pick, but would see a reflection of some advantage... not that matmat's thesis didn't have its advantages as well :-D
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