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Defense Analyzer - Week 4

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:20 pm

Well I've only done it last week (unpublished) and this week. It predicts the extremes fairly well. Of my top 8 picks last week, 4 of them scored over 15 points and 2 scored over 10 points but unfortunately two of them had less than 8 points. This week...I don't know. Of the bottom 10 from last week's figures, 7 out of the 10 had less than 8 points. But there are no guarantees. (If there were I wouldn't be writing for you guys).

But more specifically to your situation, OAK has looked awfully good against DEN, BUF and NYJ and NE has allowed a surprising number of points against MIA, SD and BUF. NE is not in the same stratosphere as I would put BAL and the NYJ. The Jets really struggled against OAK but did great against the other two teams. SF has 7 sacks and 8 turnovers having faced SEA DAL and CIN. Philly has given up 5 sacks 4 picks and 4 fumbles. Those stars align pretty nicely for about 6-8 points from your defense just on sacks and turnovers alone in one game on average. NE on the other hand, has a similarly good looking defense with 6 sacks and 7 turnovers but faces an Oakland team who have given up only 2 sacks in 3 games, 1 fumble and 1 interception. More sacks and turnovers is a higher chance for a low scoring game, defensive touchdowns and the oddball safety. That looks like a good bet for maybe 1 or 2 sacks and 1 or 2 turnovers or between 2 and 4 points total from sacks and turnovers and less of a chance for all of the other good things to happen.

SF hasn't really faced an offense like PHI before but PHI has made alot more turnovers early this year than prior years and SF has picked up on their turnovers. I kinda like them over NE at this point but I wish I could say so with certainty.

BTW, someone whispered me on what teams I'd consider studly enough to never drop: Bal, NYJ, GB

Would need a good reason to drop: CHI, NYG, PIT... SF may be working themselves into this category along with (someone chop my fingers off for writing this) DET.

But those teams have performed well enough that I think you throw out the statistics and just play and forget them until the numbers go truly wrong. There is also the possibility that some team will come out to be so terrible (like DET or KC or STL were for several years running) that you're better off picking up a DST playing one of those 3. So far though that hasn't happened.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby Jeff Kearns » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:11 pm

You said you'd need a good reason to drop the Giants...are you saying that despite the injuries, the Giants D is still an elite defense? I've kind of been playing defense by ear weekly and could use a good one to have on a weekly basis and the Giants are available, but the injuries have scared me off. What do you think?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby Honeybadgers » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:26 pm

Kudos you to you for this extra work!! ;-D

So I have both the SD (13) and Chi (15) DST. Should I drop one of them this week for SF or wait until another week goes by to see how the stats shake out? If so, who do you recommend?

Little nervous with SF going up against Philly since Vick is so hard to bring down, but has had more INT's than I expected
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:00 am

Oh I wish I knew the answer to some of those questions. I'm sure you've heard the phrase: "There are lies, damn lies, and then statistics."

Jeff: But to answer more directly, I do think very highly of the giants defense so far this year. Only Baltimore and SF are actually better than they are from the standpoint of my TO+S metric. Osi (probably) coming back this week can only help matters. They have a midling matchup vs. ARI this week and I think worth keeping the Giants.

Honey: First off, do you really need two defenses? If there's some requirement, CHI is a fine defense to keep up most weeks but SD is just going to sit on your bench the rest of the year. They have a measly 2 turnovers over 3 games and no D/ST TDs having faced MIN, NE and KC. I think you're safe to drop them, and imho, pick up SF and start SF and possibly just keep those two for the rest of the season playing matchup thereafter. If a better opportunity comes along, you'd be hard pressed to switch one of yours which is a good position to be in. Statistically speaking, SF has one of the highest scoring fantasy defenses going up against the team that has given up the most in combinations of sacks and turnovers. I have them myself this week.

Of course, that's just my opinion. There is a lot of experience on this forum and I invite others to respond to these questions as well. I'm not the guru, just the guy with the fancy excel sheet and too much statistical knowledge.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:36 pm

Yeah, first thanks for doing all of this. Second should i play the 49ers DST this week? I have them and the Bears. Just picked up the niners cause they had the most points out of all the DST so far in my league. Thanks!!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby Mlozano03 » Sat Oct 01, 2011 8:30 pm

Okay so from my understanding of this analysis, i should start 49ers defense this week instead of steelers defense?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby saemick » Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:56 pm

I'm torn myself. I currently have TB, but NYG, ATL, & WAS are all available on the ww. Which DST would you recommend I start this week?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby c0megets0me » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:15 am

Thanks for all the info......ive just been picking up what ever Def is facing KC and Seattle, but its worked well so far. However someone in my league just dropped Jets D. Should I pick them up or just keep playin the waiver?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby impervious » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:42 am

so you rank NYJ as #1 this week? for passing D? i kinda don't get this lol
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby prince_45243 » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:46 am

The analyzer works well the more data we have in it and we only have 4 weeks so far. That data can be skewed by only one bad game (Bal blowing up Pit) or one great game (Vick with 4 turnovers vs. NYG). But as the season wears on, the cream should rise to the top. I'm getting nervous about people placing too much stock in these numbers. It's entirely possible that Vick and McCoy catch fire against the 49ers and shoots this analysis down. What do the stock market analysts say? Prior performance is no guarantee of future results?

In general, if you have Darren McFadden, you start him every week irrespective of one or two bad games here and there. But if you have Ryan Mathews and Felix Jones who are not as reliable week in and week out, you look for any advantage you can find and statistics may help. But I'm not a Las Vegas odds maker and have no reputation to stake here.

As I've said before I think the Jets are a high quality defense that have held up well despite some stiff opponents this season already. I think they're worth picking up. And yes, from the analysis, SF vs. a recently turnover happy PHI looks a lot better than PIT that struggled against BAL and a weakened IND now facing a pretty high quality HOU offense.

Good luck all :)
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