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Defense Analyzer - Week 4

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby prince_45243 » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:54 am

impervious wrote:so you rank NYJ as #1 this week? for passing D? i kinda don't get this lol


This doesn't take into account matchups.

Yes. The jets have allowed only 188.7 ypg, have allowed only 2 TD in 3 games and have had 5 picks in the same time frame. That's allowing opposing qbs an average of about 7 points from yards, 2 points or so from TD and over -3 points in picks per game. So from a fantasy perspective, they are the number one passing defense in the league to date. However, I didn't meant that their matchup is the best this week. Joe Flacco has performed very well. This is not a listing which takes into consideration opposing QBS, just gives a more fantasy relevant perspective of how good a passing or rushing defense is than the NFL's rank of passing or rushing defense which is based solely on yards allowed per game.

For example, the jets are ranked 6th by the NFL. The Cleveland Browns are ranked 3rd because they have given up 1 less yard per game. But they have also given up 4 TDs to the jets 2 and have only 2 picks to the jets 5. From a fantasy perspective, the Jets are a tougher matchup than the Browns despite the browns having allowed one less fewer yards per game.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby prince_45243 » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:57 am

saemick wrote:I'm torn myself. I currently have TB, but NYG, ATL, & WAS are all available on the ww. Which DST would you recommend I start this week?


Of those, I like ATL the best. Seattle and KC, as someone has noted before, are awfully good matchups defense wise much as DET and STL had been in the past. And ATL faces SEA where hopefully Ryan and Turner get ball control and lots of production today :)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Oct 03, 2011 8:42 am

Some Monday Morning Quarterbacking:

1) SF - 8 points
2) Bal - 32
3) ATL - 3
4) CAR - 2
5) Dal-2
6) DET-18
7) GB-15
8) NO-9
9) NYG-8
10) Phi-5

Median score in the league was 5 points (half of the defenses had 5 points or less) with an average score of 7.7.
Six of the analyzer's top 10 had 8 or more points but the analysis over estimated ATL, CAR, DAL and PHI defenses.

23) MIA-2
24) TB-TBD
25) CIN-2
26) CLE-2
27) KC-5
28) NE-5
29) STL-5
30) JAC-7
31) PIT-1
32) DEN-2

So far, 8 out of 9 were correctly classified as low likelihood of a breakout game.

Asked about Jets earlier and I would consider Jets, BAL and GB to be never sits: Jets had 21, Bal had 32 and GB had 15.

Would need a good reason to drop:
NYG:8
CHI:13
PIT:1

Maybes:
SF:8
DET:18

Saemick had asked about TB, NYG, ATL and WAS. I had liked ATL the best.
TB: TBD
NYG:8
ATL: 3
WAS:13 (7 sacks!)

The stats blew that call.

Someone had asked about Jets being ranked the number 1 passing defense:
Flacco: 163/0/1 + 1 FL=2.52 Fantasy points.

Someone had SD and CHI and asked about SF. I had said to drop SD and pick up SF and probably start them or CHI the rest of the season:

SD Chargers gave 8 points, SF gave 8 points. CHI gave 13 points (1 ret TD, otherwise 7 points).

As always TDs give you a socre greater than 10. Only the Washington Redskins didn't have a TD and scored greater than 10 points defensively this week and the statistics show that sacks and turnovers are the best predictors of higher scores and TDs. But obviously they aren't perfect.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby c0megets0me » Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:09 pm

I took your advise and picked up the Jets vs Balt and got 24 points in my league. ;-D
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 4

Postby robotninja » Tue Oct 04, 2011 3:21 pm

c0megets0me wrote:I took your advise and picked up the Jets vs Balt and got 24 points in my league. ;-D


Wow I am suprised that the Jets were available. Between these rankings and gut feeling I went with Washington week 4 and got 12 pts, definitely the best performance of what I had to choose from. Thanks!
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