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The Importance of Efficiency?

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The Importance of Efficiency?

Postby FatFoot » Tue Sep 27, 2011 5:58 pm

I read someone post something along the lines of "if you're getting 95% efficiency on your scoring, you're doing great."

It got me to thinking. Does it?

Efficiency in this case, is defined as "Did you get your max possible points for the week?"

Consider what could cause you low efficiency ratings?

Consider what could cause high efficiency ratings?

Some of what gives you a low efficiency could be a VERY good sign for your team.
High efficiency is always preferable, because it gives you your best chance of winning each week.
But just as likely as demonstrating that you're making good decisions, it could be that you drafted poorly, or are working the wire poorly, or that your team was attacked by the Injury Demon.

Do you guys track this stuff for your league at all?

Here's one of my leagues (pardon the team names)
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I'm not sure how useful efficiency is, as a FF statistic.
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Re: The Importance of Efficiency?

Postby DraftDodger » Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:17 am

Without the win-loss records of those teams, we can't see how much good efficiency has done them. There are leagues that play by total points scored every week, so obviously efficiency there would be much more important than in head-to-head.

Efficiency requires gambling, which to my way of thinking increases your chances of being inefficient. We almost always advise people to play their studs. Even this week, having a bad feeling about Fred Jackson vs. the Patriots (boy was I wrong) I stuck with him. It's tempting to play matchups, to look like you have second sight by benching Fitz and playing some 3rd stringer who on paper should have a monster day, but that more often costs games than wins them.

This kind of ties into the Tebow discussion that's been going on, about how his floor was pretty high, so people who played him at the end of last year often won championships because he didn't fail fantasy-wise at the QB position. It's consistency vs. efficiency. If you're playing head to head, as most leagues are set up, it's a weekly decision whether to try to guarantee yourself a certain number of points, or to take gambles and try to maximize your points. This requires some knowledge (or good guesswork at least) of the floor, average, and ceiling for each of your players. If you're scoring 130 pts a week and that's good enough to beat most of your competition, that's great, but what happens when you come up against the guy who is scoring 150 a week? Do you just plug in your regular guys and hope for the best, or do you try to play some good matchups and maybe sit a couple players with lower ceilings?

I do agree with you that high efficiency can say some negative stuff about the quality of your bench. If those guys didn't have great potential, why did we draft them, and why are we stashing them away?
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Re: The Importance of Efficiency?

Postby FatFoot » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:20 pm

I think the win loss records will help to decide whether or not efficiency has HAD an impact on a team, but not whether it has any merit as a predictor, or demonstrates any sort of quality of decision making, by the owner.

One would think that "If you've got a good efficiency mark, you're making all of the right decisions."
That is the snap judgement.
But is it true at all?
Does it mean much of ANYTHING?

Week 1, this season.
Would anyone in his right mind have started:
Flacco over Rivers?
CJ Spiller over Chris Johnson or Shonn Green?

and more of a judgement call, but the biggest efficiency hit was starting Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall, both of whom had excellent games... instead of Wes Welker.

And then "Never Sit Your Studs," no one is thinking "Bench CJ" in week 2, and very few, if any benched him in what looked like a sweet matchup for week 3.
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Re: The Importance of Efficiency?

Postby dgan » Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:29 pm

Just to clarify (since I think he's referring to my comment in another thread), the discussion we were having was a debate on when to bench an underperforming stud to plug in an on-fire nobody. To which I made the comment that, generally speaking, starting your studs is always the safest bet until you have 3 or 4 weeks of data.

The point I was making to that poster was that by trying to gamble all the time to hit the hot player or the best matchup will turn out to be shooting yourself in the foot more often than not. Where as if you draft a stud and he's had two bad weeks - he's probably due. Or at least I find that more likely than this Week 1 waiver wire pickup is going to have his 3rd straight 20 pt fantasy game.

It's case by case, obviously, as there are so many variables. But my argument was accepting the fact you will in most weeks be leaving points somewhere on your bench is much better than trying to gamble too much to squeeze every point out of it. I find my personal success is about 90 - 95% of total possible points over the course of a season (so far in this young season my average best possible is 119 pts, my average starting lineup is 112 pts...and I'm 1-2, lol). Taking risks trying to get to 100% would more likely take me to 80%. You just can't beat yourself up every time a bench player scores 3 TDs, which less experienced fantasy owners have a tendency to do.

So I just wanted to clarify why this topic originated, in case my name comes up somewhere. :-b
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Re: The Importance of Efficiency?

Postby FatFoot » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:09 pm

dgan wrote:Just to clarify (since I think he's referring to my comment in another thread), the discussion we were having was a debate on when to bench an underperforming stud to plug in an on-fire nobody. To which I made the comment that, generally speaking, starting your studs is always the safest bet until you have 3 or 4 weeks of data.

The point I was making to that poster was that by trying to gamble all the time to hit the hot player or the best matchup will turn out to be shooting yourself in the foot more often than not. Where as if you draft a stud and he's had two bad weeks - he's probably due. Or at least I find that more likely than this Week 1 waiver wire pickup is going to have his 3rd straight 20 pt fantasy game.

It's case by case, obviously, as there are so many variables. But my argument was accepting the fact you will in most weeks be leaving points somewhere on your bench is much better than trying to gamble too much to squeeze every point out of it. I find my personal success is about 90 - 95% of total possible points over the course of a season (so far in this young season my average best possible is 119 pts, my average starting lineup is 112 pts...and I'm 1-2, lol). Taking risks trying to get to 100% would more likely take me to 80%. You just can't beat yourself up every time a bench player scores 3 TDs, which less experienced fantasy owners have a tendency to do.

So I just wanted to clarify why this topic originated, in case my name comes up somewhere. :-b


I didn't want to attribute anything to anyone... it is a question that comes up from time to time, so I just used an anonymous pseudo-quote for the sake of starting the conversation. :)

I am one of the geeks who does a lot of nerd-work right before the draft. I pay attention through the off season, but I go full nerd the weekend before the draft, and then for the first 2 or 3 weeks of the season, on the wire. I feel like that's where you end up getting most of the "you lucky $%*&" finds. But as a result, my team either gets moshed, or (maybe I'm just lucky) I have a bunch of "who the hell is David Nelson" type comments from league mates. I think that those of us who always have a FFC and Rotoworld tab open on the browser window are usually at least a couple of hours ahead of league mates who don't.

Anyway, all it takes is a couple of studs sucking, and a couple of your guesses landing, and your efficiency rating is in the tank. But I'm 3-0 and 2-1 in my two money leagues. Within 10 fp of the top score in one, and solid in the other.

I think it's an interesting stat, but too dependent on different criteria. Worrying about it is similar to people who complain that "you haven't had NEARLY as many 'points against' as I have! You're so lucky!" Except the reason I don't is because I'M DOING that big scoring against your teams... if I'm getting 20-40 pts better than at least half of the league, and a couple other teams are doing similarly, there WILL be a big discrepancy. And it wouldn't be luck. It'd be because I don't face my team, and the top scorer doesn't face his team, etc.

I just sort of wanted to read some opinions on the subject.
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Re: The Importance of Efficiency?

Postby dgan » Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:34 pm

I guess lineup efficiency is particularly interesting to me because my main league has 11 bench spots (used to actually be 16, until we cut it down last year). With such large benches, the chances of everyone on your bench being hurt is pretty slim. So instead of having just a couple of choices to make each week as you would in a league with 5 bench spots - you may have 6 or 7 different decisions to make, most of them difficult. In that scenario, efficiency actually becomes a pretty telling statistic of how proficient you are at recognizing trends and matchups.

Now, if your bench is full of injured players or you have handcuffs to your starters, your efficiency rating should be 100% almost every time. Also league size and bench size will determine how important that is. And it is just one stat amongst a hundred others...I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

But I'd like to recognize if I see a trend of 4 straight weeks where I started the wrong kicker every time, or if it seems my backup QB always tears up his divisional rivals. Having it all laid out on a spreadsheet also gives me easy recognition to see who is scoring 4,20,4,20 and who is scoring 12,12,12,12. Those things might be helpful in picking playoff matchups or even help me next season (hmm...drafting Grant and Starks...maybe not my best draft strategy...)

So I guess you'd have to look at your league setup to see if it would be beneficial to track how good you are at starting the right guys. And then you have to figure out what equates to a "good" efficiency percentage in your league. But at least taking a look? I don't think it can hurt. ;-D
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