Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 5

[mattb47]

Alright, with 4 weeks under our belt I feel a bit better about the accuracy of the analysis I've been doing on the best/worst matchups for each position. Instead of some matchup stats that just tell you which team gives up the most fantasy points to a position, this takes it a step further and analyzes how many points a defense gives up to a position in comparison to how that player does on average.

For example:
QB A: Scores 32 FP/G
QB A vs. Team 1: Scores 27 FP

QB B: Scores 28 FP/G
QB B vs. Team 1: Scores 23 FP

Now just based on average it looks like Team 1 allows 25 FP/G to QBs which is seems pretty bad. But when you see that these 2 QBs average 30 FP/G for the season, Team 1 only gives up about 83% of what a QB normally averages. That's what this analysis is based on and it is continually updating itself throughout the season as player averages change and so each week it should continue to become more and more accurate and give a better understanding of how a player will perform compared to their normal output.

I'll just be giving the 5 best and 5 worst matchups for each position.

Quarterbacks:

Best Matchups:
1. Mark Sanchez vs. New England Patriots - Allowing 25.42 FP/G, 133% of average
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Allowing 22.17 FP/G, 132% of average
3. Philip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos - Allowing 29.54 FP/G, 130% of average
4. Matt Ryan vs. Green Bay Packers - Allowing 27.09 FP/G, 123% of average
5. Cam Newton vs. New Orleans Saints - Allowing 22.43 FP/G, 121% of average

Worst Matchups:
1. Tom Brady vs. New York Jets - Allowing 7.25 FP/G, 45% of average
2. Blaine Gabbert vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Allowing 13.43 FP/G, 72% of average
3. Andy Dalton vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Allowing 17.92 FP/G, 76% of average
4. Matt Hasselbeck vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Allowing 12.48 FP/G, 78% of average
5. Tarvaris Jackson vs. New York Giants - Allowing 13.02 FP/G, 80% of average

On BYE:
Baltimore - Allowing 8.58 FP/G, 54% of average
Washington - Allowing 13.96 FP/G, 78% of average

Should be interesting to see the result of Brady against what has been the best fantasy defense against QBs with the Jets as well as Mark Sanchez who has been a bit up and down against one of the best matchups in the Patriots.

Running Backs:

Best Matchups:
1. Fred Jackson vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Allowing 27.98 FP/G, 158% of average
2. Arian Foster vs. Oakland Raiders - Allowing 26.20 FP/G, 145% of average
3. Mark Ingram vs. Carolina Panthers - Allowing 23.78 FP/G, 138% of average
4. Thomas Jones/Dexter McCluster vs. Indianapolis Colts - Allowing 20.10 FP/G, 124% of average
5. Ryan Grant vs. Atlanta - Allowing 19.88 FP/G, 124% of average

On BYE:
Cleveland - Allowing 17.6 FP/G, 133% of average

Worst Matchups:
1. LaGarrette Blount vs. San Francisco 49ers - Allowing 9.25 FP/G, 63% of average
2. Ryan Mathews vs. Denver Broncos - Allowing 12.35 FP/G, 68% of average
3. Michael Turner vs. Green Bay Packers - Allowing 13.55 FP/G, 82% of average
4. Knowshon Moreno/Willis McGahee vs. San Diego Chargers - Allowing 13.83 FP/G, 83% of average
5. Matt Forte vs. Detroit Lions - Allowing 13.25 FP/G, 86% of average

On BYE:
Baltimore - Allowing 9.05 FP/G, 67% of average
Dallas - Allowing 12.78 FP/G, 73% of average
Miami - Allowing 17.75 FP/G, 85% of average

Wide Receiver 1:

Best Matchups:
1. Percy Harvin vs. Arizona Cardinals - Allowing 18.75 FP/G, 171% of average
2. Santonio Holmes vs. New England Patriots - Allowing 16.6 FP/G, 149% of average
3. DeSean Jackson vs. Buffalo Bills - Allowing 16.95 FP/G, 131% of average
4. Denarius Moore vs. Houston Texans - Allowing 12.33 FP/G, 125% of average
5. Dwayne Bowe vs. Indianapolis Colts - Allowing 11.75 FP/G, 124% of average

On BYE:
Miami - Allowing 17.18 FP/G, 125% of average

Worst Matchups:
1. Brandon Lloyd vs. San Diego Chargers - Allowing 6.68 FP/G, 55% of average
2. Mike Wallace vs. Tennessee Titans - Allowing 4.63 FP/G, 57% of average
3. Nate Washington vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Allowing 5.08 FP/G, 60% of average
4. Wes Welker vs. New York Jets - Allowing 6.03 FP/G, 60% of average
5. Sidney Rice vs. New York Giants - Allowing 6.50 FP/G, 71% of average

On BYE:
Cleveland - Allowing 6.80 FP/G, 66% of average

Wide Receiver 2:

Best Matchups:
1. Julio Jones vs. Green Bay Packers - Allowing 11.93 FP/G, 159% of average
2. Jordy Nelson vs. Atlanta Falcons - Allowing 11.53 FP/G, 154% of average
3. Josh Morgan vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Allowing 11.75 FP/G, 153% of average
4. Plaxico Burress vs. New England Patriots - Allowing 8.75 FP/G, 149% of average
5. David Nelson vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Allowing 10.73 FP/G, 143% of average

Worst Matchups:
1. Jason Hill vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Allowing 1.73 FP/G, 27% of average
2. Damian Williams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Allowing 5.08 FP/G, 37% of average
3. Jerome Simpson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Allowing 3.28 FP/G, 38% of average
4. Jeremy Maclin vs. Buffalo Bills - Allowing 3.53 FP/G, 63% of average
5. Deion Branch vs. New York Jets - Allowing 4.70 FP/G, 70% of average

On BYE:
Washington - Allowing 4.10 FP/G, 51% of average
Cleveland - Allowing 4.05 FP/G, 54% of average

Tight End:

Best Matchups:
1. Kellen Davis vs. Detroit Lions - Allowing 8.40 FP/G, 144% of average
2. Dallas Clark vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Allowing 8.68 FP/G, 138% of average
3. Todd Heap vs. Minnesota Vikings - Allowing 7.30 FP/G, 137% of average
4. Jared Cook vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Allowing 8.30 FP/G, 137% of average
5. Visanthe Shiancoe vs. Arizona Cardinals - Allowing 9.43 FP/G, 135% of average

On BYE:
Cleveland - Allowing 11.53 FP/G, 206% of average

Worst Matchups:
1. Randy McMicheal vs. Denver Broncos - Allowing 1.45 FP/G, 20% of average
2. Owen Daniels vs. Oakland Raiders - Allowing 5.25 FP/G, 47% of average
3. Zach Miller vs. New York Giants - Allowing 4.73 FP/G, 74% of average
4. Jake Ballard vs. Seattle Seahawks - Allowing 6.00 FP/G, 76% of average
5. Leonard Pope vs. Indianapolis Colts - Allowing 5.73 FP/G, 77% of average

On BYE:
St. Louis - Allowing 2.88 FP/G, 44% of average
Baltimore - Allowing 3.15 FP/G, 54% of average

[mattb47]

Also, just for the heck of it, here's the top 5 projected scorers based on my results at each position:

QB:
1. Aaron Rodgers vs. Atlanta
2. Cam Newton vs. New Orleans
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Philadelphia
4. Michael Vick vs. Buffalo
5. Matthew Stafford vs. Chicago

RB:
1. Fred Jackson vs. Philadelphia
2. Mark Ingram/Pierre Thomas/Darren Sproles vs. Carolina
3. Darren McFadden vs. Houston
4. Arian Foster vs. Oakland
5. LeSean McCoy vs. Buffalo

WR:
1. Calvin Johnson vs. Chicago
2. Steve Smith vs. New Orleans
3. Wes Welker vs. New York Jets
4. Percy Harvin vs. Arizona
5. DeSean Jackson vs. Buffalo

TE:
1. Rob Gronkowski vs. New York Jets
2. Tony Gonzalez vs. Green Bay
3. Dustin Keller vs. New England
4. Jimmy Graham vs. Carolina
5. Jermichael Finley vs. Atlanta

[DaSh 1s]

Thanks

[moochman]

Thats some pretty swell work there, Matt. bleeping sweet, in fact.
Looks like I should dare start Sproles over Forte this week.

[spodog]

Looks like I should dare start Sproles over Forte this week.

Hmmmm. I'd have to think about that one really, really hard. Sproles over Forte?

[mattb47]

Looks like I should dare start Sproles over Forte this week.

Hmmmm. I'd have to think about that one really, really hard. Sproles over Forte?

Yea, I'm not sure if I would do that or not here. Carolina has primarily given up most of their damage to RBs on the ground rather than through the air which is where Sproles really has his value. And that ranking is essentially for the collective group of the New Orleans RBs as they all combine for easily one of the highest scoring fantasy backfields as a group on a consistent basis but Forte pretty much is the Chicago offense right now.

[LeBron James]

Holy Cow! It's been so long since I have logged in! I remember you Mattb47 and spodog and moochman. This site is not what it used to be. During football season the whole front page would change topics every few days, now it's the same ones forever lol.