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Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby DVauthrin » Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:34 pm

arian and nicks for me, though it's close.
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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby prophecy135 » Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:38 pm

TugzMcBoat wrote:
prophecy135 wrote:IF this is a ppr league, I say its 50/50, if you really want Megatron and feel okay with having a minor downgrade to Forte, I would really concider this. If its standard I dont think I would do this.



well how much of an upgrade do you see Megatron to Nicks? I think that difference is bigger than between Forte and Foster

I see the bigger drop off being foster to forte. The bears can run, but they also chuck it around more often then not. Foster is in a very run heavy offense, and he will be the primary carrier. Forte, in a standard league will not be nearly as consistent as foster, and foster will have consistently higher points in my opinion. Ppr this goes away and the difference is much smaller.

The lions have been playing great, but they're schedule gets tougher, and the o line has been struggling to protect Stafford at times. The lions also don't have a strong run game like the giants have to keep defenders honest. Opposing teams can bracket cover calvin, nicks will rarely see bracket coverage and if he does its not for the entire game. Overall, yes Megatron is a better play then nicks, more consistent so far, but I believe his consistency relies heavily on Stafford, and the o line worries me.

I would much rather have the consistency of a great rb in a great run based offense then rely on the health of a fragile qb. Now Im not saying I'm right about this, but I would prefer to have foster. If you could do the deal without foster, maybe a back and nicks for Megatron I would be all for it, as Megatron is an absolute beast, but if it comes at the expense of foster then I would say no.
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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby TugzMcBoat » Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:46 pm

prophecy135 wrote:I see the bigger drop off being foster to forte. The bears can run, but they also chuck it around more often then not. Foster is in a very run heavy offense, and he will be the primary carrier. Forte, in a standard league will not be nearly as consistent as foster, and foster will have consistently higher points in my opinion. Ppr this goes away and the difference is much smaller.

The lions have been playing great, but they're schedule gets tougher, and the o line has been struggling to protect Stafford at times. The lions also don't have a strong run game like the giants have to keep defenders honest. Opposing teams can bracket cover calvin, nicks will rarely see bracket coverage and if he does its not for the entire game. Overall, yes Megatron is a better play then nicks, more consistent so far, but I believe his consistency relies heavily on Stafford, and the o line worries me.

I would much rather have the consistency of a great rb in a great run based offense then rely on the health of a fragile qb. Now Im not saying I'm right about this, but I would prefer to have foster. If you could do the deal without foster, maybe a back and nicks for Megatron I would be all for it, as Megatron is an absolute beast, but if it comes at the expense of foster then I would say no.


+1

I think I would still make the trade (gut feeling?) but I can't argue against anything you said, very well put and a great analysis. ;-D
10 team standard- passing TD's = 6pts
QB: Stafford
RB: R. Matthews, A. Bradshaw, I. Redmann, B. Tate, CJ Spiller,
WR: G. Jennings, A. Johnson, E. Decker, T. Smith, K. Britt, M. Crabtree
TE: J. Tamme
DEF: Philly
start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1DEF 1K
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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby Halo Girl » Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:22 pm

It is close, but I think I like the Forte/Megatron side because I like Megatron better then Nicks and though Foster looked healthy, I'd be a little worried he might get hurt again. And Forte is a big part of the passing game and got more looks last week.

Please help with mine: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=501686
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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby prophecy135 » Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:59 pm

Halo Girl wrote:It is close, but I think I like the Forte/Megatron side because I like Megatron better then Nicks and though Foster looked healthy, I'd be a little worried he might get hurt again. And Forte is a big part of the passing game and got more looks last week.

Please help with mine: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=501686

Everyone likes Megatron better then Nicks, just like everyone prefers Foster to Forte, the problem is the dropoff from Foster to Forte I think is much greater then difference from Nicks to Calvin. Calvin is a clear cut top of the WR tier 1, many, including myself, concider Nicks to be in that same tier. Foster is arguably the top of the tier 1 RB's, Forte, in my opinion is a tier 2 back, a very good one, but definetly a difference. This is where I see the difference in the trade.

There's by no means a clear cut winning side in this trade, and I think it will basically break down to the owners personal preference. I dont have Nicks on any team and wouldnt trade for him, so I would prefer to have Megatron. Scoring also will have a huge play in this, ppr, I think the drop off from Foster to Forte is negligible due to Forte being heavily involved in the passing game, so I would do this trade, in a ppr format. In a standard I think there are the drop offs as stated above. Forte in a standard format loses some value due to the fact that he'll rarely break the 100 yard mark in either rushing or recieving, where many leagues have bonus points.

Also, if you really look at it, as far as injuries go, I think Stafford is a liability for Calvin. His inability to stay healthy through a season will limit his potential. Calvin will not have the same scoring potential if he's got Shaun Hill throwing to him. Calvin also hasnt been the healthiest of guys, missing games in each of the last few seasons. He does, to his credit, try to gut some games out, playing through injury, but he rarely puts up the kind of numbers everyone expects when he does so.

All in all, this trade is fair on both sides, I can see taking it, and I can see staying with what you have. If you're okay with the drop off, or dont see the drop off from Foster to Forte, I can definetly see taking the trade and being completely happy with it.
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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby TugzMcBoat » Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:08 pm

very good analysis again, but if you're gonna spring up the injury bug- Foster has already missed 2 1/2 games with a Hammy. To be fair he certainly looks fully healed and its not something that will linger but very real possibility of it springing up again. So I wouldn't necessarily mark Foster down as being a for sure thing for the next 13 weeks.

Johnson is certainly more likely to miss a game or two more than Foster from here on out, then again he hasn't yet and Foster already missed 2 1/2
10 team standard- passing TD's = 6pts
QB: Stafford
RB: R. Matthews, A. Bradshaw, I. Redmann, B. Tate, CJ Spiller,
WR: G. Jennings, A. Johnson, E. Decker, T. Smith, K. Britt, M. Crabtree
TE: J. Tamme
DEF: Philly
start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1DEF 1K
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Re: Arian/Nicks or Forte/Megatron? WHIR

Postby prophecy135 » Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:48 pm

TugzMcBoat wrote:very good analysis again, but if you're gonna spring up the injury bug- Foster has already missed 2 1/2 games with a Hammy. To be fair he certainly looks fully healed and its not something that will linger but very real possibility of it springing up again. So I wouldn't necessarily mark Foster down as being a for sure thing for the next 13 weeks.

Johnson is certainly more likely to miss a game or two more than Foster from here on out, then again he hasn't yet and Foster already missed 2 1/2

I dont like bringing up injuries as they're too unpredictable, and really shouldnt be concidered when looking at a trade unless one of the players is already injured. Foster gave himself more then enough time to properley heal his hammy, I dont think the hamstring injury should be concidered. If you do concider it, then you must also concider the fact that Calvin hasnt played a full season and neither has his QB.

Again though I dont think this should be a factor, I just mentioned it as it was brought up above.
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