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Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:21 am

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=501537

As with the prior week, there were a few teams in my predicted top 10 who had bad games. However, only 7 teams managed over 10 points last week and of those, 4 were in my top 10. Overall 6/10 had above average scores for week 5 and combined week 4, that makes 12/20 or roughly 60% accurate in predicting above average scores. Of the bottom 10, 4/10 had above average scores and combined with week 4, that makes 5/20 or 25% that had above average scores.

I looked at the Cafe start/sit for week 5 as well. Their top 10 and output were:
1) NYG - 11
2) DET - 7
3) SD - 3
4) TEN - -1
5) TB- -2
6) CIN - 14
7) PIT - 6
8) KC - 0
9) IND - 1
10) GB - 6

My top 10 were:
1) BUF - 17
2) DET - 7
3) GB - 6
4) NYG - 11
5) CIN - 14
6) NE - 2
7) TEN - -1
8) SF - 22
9) TB- -2
10) NYJ - 5

So basically, my top 10 did catch 4 of the 7 that were over 10 points for the day, we both blew the TEN and TB calls. My system ranked BUF the highest while the Cafe's ranking had it dead last. SF also was a midling rank in the cafe system.

And so on we go!

DEFENSE:
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.

I've previously said that NYJ, BAL and GB are teams that should probably be started every week regardless of matchup. I've also been impressed with NYG, DET, SF and CHI and think they may be good starts regardless as well.


Image

Not a lot of surprises if you've been following this thread but I would think that PIT is a little underranked at this point. They did poorly for four weeks but last week looked possessed against a pretty solid team and they are playing JAX this week where they should shut them down well. SF has been a terrific defense to have most of this year but I wonder how they'll do against a DET offense that has surrendered only 6 sacks, 4 picks and 4 fumbles in 5 games. Otherwise, I think the lineup looks pretty good.

PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

Each line shows my rank, the team, the NFL's rank, the average score they are yielding opposing passers, and the toughness of their schedule so far this year. For example, the NYJ are my number 1 passing defense, they are the NFL's number 5 ranked defense. They are yielding opponents only 8.9 points per game on average and have faced the 8th toughest schedule so far.

You should also note that this is passing only and if your qb has good legs, look also at the rushing rankings.
You should also note that this doesn't take into account their opponent that week.
PASSING:
Image

The Giants did a strange flip in their toughness rating. Last week they had the 3rd toughest schedule and this week they are rated as having the easiest. So I reran the numbers about five times and it keeps coming out that way. I can't reproduce last week's numbers as I update the spreadsheet every week. It appears that all of the teams that they have faced in the past (WAS, STL, PHI, ARI, SEA) had poor weeks passing in Week 5 and went down on their average passing offensive power. Still, this is how it works out most years where eventually, the teams with the best 'score' have had the easiest schedules as far as output goes. Still one has to raise an eyebrow at NE's defense yielding an average of 21.1 points to opposing QBs and having had the 5th easiest schedule to date. And impressed with the Jets who held Tom Brady to less than 20 points and are still my number one rank despite having the 8th toughest schedule. I'm a little surprised that JAC is rated in the top 10 by the NFL and 12th by me and have had the 4th toughest schedule.

Some may also have noticed GB scraping out of the bottom 10 passing defenses this week but I'd still consider them a suspect passing defense. Nearly every QB facing them from Brees, Cam newton, Cutler, Kyle Orton had 2 or more TDs and well over 300 yards on average. Matt Ryan really struggled against them but again, I think the Packers have yielded a lot of points despite blowing teams out.

Which teams have had only one interception over 5 games? Not the KC Chiefs, they've had 5 picks in 5 games! No, it's the PITTSBURGH STEELERS?!!! Wow. Of course, they've only surrendered 5 passing TDs in the same period and the Bengals have the same line as they do with only 1 pick but only allowing 5 TDs. The Buffalo Bills lead the league with 12 picks on the year but have surrendered 10 passing TDs this year.

RUSHING
The following is based on 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover.
Image

Which team hasn't allowed a single rushing TD through 5 games? The Ravens? No.....San Francisco?! Yes they remain the only team in the NFL to have not yielded a single rushing TD. Here's another surprise, the other teams to have yielded only 1 are BAL, DAL, CLE, DET and TEN but remember that BAL, DAL and CLE have only played 4 games so far this year. Pretty badass eh?

And who has allowed the MOST TDs on the ground so far this year? OMG! The New York Jets have yielded 8 TDs (including 2 to the b-grade Green-Ellis) this year. Only the Arizona Cardinals are as bad as they are in defending their goal line vs. the rush. And the St. Louis Rams, despite yielding a league worst 179 ypg, have only given up 3 TDs on the ground. What kinda strange world do we live in where the Detroit Lions are undefeated and the Jets are the worst rushing defense in the league.

I'm taking the kids to disneyworld this weekend so spotty coverage from here on out until next week's update. Hopefully other cafe members will chime in.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby robotninja » Tue Oct 11, 2011 3:54 pm

Thanks for the heads up, I will probably roll the dice with Washington this week, but have Cincy as a 2nd option. I doubted you a bit on the bills last week but I think you have fully turned me at this point.

Have fun in Disney World with the kids.

I'll say it once for you right now. Points against is not a good predictor of Fantasy defense success!
10 Team Std Scoring No PPR
QB Stafford
RB Spiller
RB Morris
WR Nelson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR/TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Ridley
K and Def by committee
Min and Hartley

Bench
A Brown (pit)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby HotHandz305 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:58 am

Right now my best options seem to be Wash or Det.

My biggest concern is that in our league we have an addition scoring on D/ST.

0-99 yards is +5 pts, but the big problem is 500+ defensive allowed yards is -5 and Phi has broken the 500 mark once and twice came close.

From weeks 1-5 defenses scored these pts while playing them in my league 5,5,9,3,17.

The redskins have allowed about 300 yards per game defensively against not so great teams in my opinion. NYG, Ari, Dal (highly injured) and StL.



In all do you all believe it would still be better to roll with Was vs Phi who tend to give up a decent amount of turn overs or go with an all round solid Det vs SF?

EDIT* As a note everything else is standard defense scoring in a yahoo fantasy league which I've just read is slightly different from espn when comparing defenses.
Week 13 Roster
QB Tony Romo
WR1 Greg Jennings
WR2 Vincent Jax
RB1 Arian Foster
RB2 LeSean McCoy
TE Vernon Davis
Flex (W/R/T) Willis McGahee
K Billy Cundiff
DST GB
IDP Patrick Willis
BEN Roy Helu
BEN Fred Davis
BEN Stevie Johnson
BEN Pitt D/ST
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:20 am

HotHandz305 wrote:Right now my best options seem to be Wash or Det.

My biggest concern is that in our league we have an addition scoring on D/ST.

0-99 yards is +5 pts, but the big problem is 500+ defensive allowed yards is -5 and Phi has broken the 500 mark once and twice came close.


That's an interesting twist and yes, there is some reason to worry.
Short answer is: How's your matchup looking? If you think you're going to lose, go for the highest probability of a big Defensive day and go with WAS who I think may give up more than 350-400 yards but I think has a higher chance of a 10+ day. If, however, you look fine to win and just want an above average game with some chance of a monster day, go with DET.

Long answer: Of the teams WAS has faced, PHI is superior to all but DAL in passing YPG and is number 1 in the league in rushing YPG . Passing: PHI is 8th in ypg at 280. The NYG are just behind at 275ypg and the Cowboys get 331 ypg. ARI is farther back at 237ypg and STL a miserable 187 ypg.
Rushing, however, the eagles are number one in rushing ypg at 165.6. Of the teams WAS has faced , the cardinals are 19th at 103 ypg, the rams are 25th at 92.5 ypg , cowboys are 26th at 87ypg, the giants 28th at 84ypg. So in truth, the skins haven't faced the combined vick, mccoy type of threat from a rushing standpoint.

However, I would point out that going from giving up 300 ypg to those other teams to giving up 500 ypg is a pretty big stretch. I am not sure that it would dissuade me against starting the skins as a defense this week but it's possible any given week that Vick will finally stop giving up an average of 2 turnovers per game (he's surrendered 7 picks and 3 fumbles). If he does that vs. WAS, there goes that prediction. History suggests that teams that give up lots of sacks and turnovers continue to do so regularly throughout the season. Only MIA has a higher value to me in starting against. :)

DET really, really is a solid defense. Honestly, if I had DET, I'd probably start them against SF. I'm more scared about starting SF vs. DET frankly. Statistics aside, I just don't think there are many corners in the NFL that can contain megatron and I think that Best is going to test the SF streak so far of not allowing a TD on the ground. Detroit is in the top 10 for both passing and rushing defense in my estimation largely because of takeaways. They've faced AP and Forte and while both gave up yards, DET still did fine as a defense both of those weeks and above average.

If you're looking for higher reward potential, I think WAS has a better shot of a defensive TD this week but statistically, DET is no better than WAS as a defense and has a lesser opponent. Still, both are in my top 10 and I think either is a legit start.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby rstandi » Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:51 am

Good morning,

I think your completely on to something with your formula! Turnovers are key. That being said, for me last week, I picked up Buffalo, mid week for my defense, as I only drafted baltimore to start. I was concerned about the matchup, because PA matters so much in our league. I look at 5 ranking systems. I start with yours and then check out the rest. averaging the 5, San Fran was listed #3 or 4. When they came up on the waiver wire, I grabbed them. 31 points later and I won most points for the 5th week in a row.

Again, this is great information. If there is anything I can do to help, I would love to!

Rod
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby rstandi » Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:55 am

Hey, also, the last part of your article that talks about SF vs DET, is exactly what I'm talking about. It just appears to be a tough matchup. SF will still probably get the turnovers and sacks, but in my league giving up 30 pts is a killer to score. Last week SF had the better matchup with Tampa, then did Buffalo. If you can find a way to predict that, this thing would be a money maker!!!! LOL

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby rasmusDoh » Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:13 am

rstandi -> What are the other 4 ranking systems? :)
2013 roster (10-man PPR league)

QBs: R. Wilson, Romo
RBs: D. Martin, Sproles, L. Miller, G. Bernard
WRs: R. White, Amendola, Josh Gordon, Edelman, James Jones, Keenan Allen
TEs: Graham
K: Weekly
DEF: Weekly
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby rstandi » Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:45 am

The cafe, sit and start from the front page. Yahoo, Espn and Fantasy football insider from pro football weekly. It ended up on my phone somehow. If I run across others, I will usually check them out. Have seen rotoworlds and espn's also. Those initial 4 always remember to check.

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby Ruby Tues. » Fri Oct 14, 2011 11:01 am

OK I'm not the brightest guy here, I'm trying to understand the D analyzer to no avail. I have Buffalo's D going in week 6 and Cincy's D is available on the FA list. Who should I go with....Thanks

Ruby
Standard 12 team non ppr:
QB- Romo, Locker
WR- R. White, B. Marshall, R. Wayne, and P. Garcon
RB- L. McCoy, D. Martin, K. Smith, P. Hillis, and M. Goodsen
TE- G. Olsen
K- M. Bryant
D- Hou
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 6

Postby robotninja » Fri Oct 14, 2011 1:25 pm

Ruby Tues. wrote:OK I'm not the brightest guy here, I'm trying to understand the D analyzer to no avail. I have Buffalo's D going in week 6 and Cincy's D is available on the FA list. Who should I go with....Thanks

Ruby


By these rankings you should stick with Buffalo based on the fact that they have consistently caused sacks and turnovers. The high turnover rate coupled with the fact that NYG has fairly commonly let up turnovers can lead to a big day for a defense. Most ranking sites are going to have Cin ranked higher than buffalo because they are #1 defense in the nfl based on yards against and points allowed which is not necesarily the best predictor of fantasy defense scoring.

In your situation I would say that if you think the team you are playing is going to beat you swing for the fence and play buffalo, if you feel that your team is stronger as will most likely win you could play it safe and play cincy and get a solid score from them. Honestly either play should work out and like in all things fantasy sometimes you have to go with your gut.
10 Team Std Scoring No PPR
QB Stafford
RB Spiller
RB Morris
WR Nelson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR/TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Ridley
K and Def by committee
Min and Hartley

Bench
A Brown (pit)
Bernard Pierce
Roy Helu
Bryce Brown
Mark Ingram
Marlon Brown
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