Defense Analyzer - Week 6

[prince_45243]

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=501537

As with the prior week, there were a few teams in my predicted top 10 who had bad games. However, only 7 teams managed over 10 points last week and of those, 4 were in my top 10. Overall 6/10 had above average scores for week 5 and combined week 4, that makes 12/20 or roughly 60% accurate in predicting above average scores. Of the bottom 10, 4/10 had above average scores and combined with week 4, that makes 5/20 or 25% that had above average scores.

I looked at the Cafe start/sit for week 5 as well. Their top 10 and output were:
1) NYG - 11
2) DET - 7
3) SD - 3
4) TEN - -1
5) TB- -2
6) CIN - 14
7) PIT - 6
8) KC - 0
9) IND - 1
10) GB - 6

My top 10 were:
1) BUF - 17
2) DET - 7
3) GB - 6
4) NYG - 11
5) CIN - 14
6) NE - 2
7) TEN - -1
8) SF - 22
9) TB- -2
10) NYJ - 5

So basically, my top 10 did catch 4 of the 7 that were over 10 points for the day, we both blew the TEN and TB calls. My system ranked BUF the highest while the Cafe's ranking had it dead last. SF also was a midling rank in the cafe system.

And so on we go!

DEFENSE:
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.

I've previously said that NYJ, BAL and GB are teams that should probably be started every week regardless of matchup. I've also been impressed with NYG, DET, SF and CHI and think they may be good starts regardless as well.




Not a lot of surprises if you've been following this thread but I would think that PIT is a little underranked at this point. They did poorly for four weeks but last week looked possessed against a pretty solid team and they are playing JAX this week where they should shut them down well. SF has been a terrific defense to have most of this year but I wonder how they'll do against a DET offense that has surrendered only 6 sacks, 4 picks and 4 fumbles in 5 games. Otherwise, I think the lineup looks pretty good.

PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

Each line shows my rank, the team, the NFL's rank, the average score they are yielding opposing passers, and the toughness of their schedule so far this year. For example, the NYJ are my number 1 passing defense, they are the NFL's number 5 ranked defense. They are yielding opponents only 8.9 points per game on average and have faced the 8th toughest schedule so far.

You should also note that this is passing only and if your qb has good legs, look also at the rushing rankings.
You should also note that this doesn't take into account their opponent that week.
PASSING:


The Giants did a strange flip in their toughness rating. Last week they had the 3rd toughest schedule and this week they are rated as having the easiest. So I reran the numbers about five times and it keeps coming out that way. I can't reproduce last week's numbers as I update the spreadsheet every week. It appears that all of the teams that they have faced in the past (WAS, STL, PHI, ARI, SEA) had poor weeks passing in Week 5 and went down on their average passing offensive power. Still, this is how it works out most years where eventually, the teams with the best 'score' have had the easiest schedules as far as output goes. Still one has to raise an eyebrow at NE's defense yielding an average of 21.1 points to opposing QBs and having had the 5th easiest schedule to date. And impressed with the Jets who held Tom Brady to less than 20 points and are still my number one rank despite having the 8th toughest schedule. I'm a little surprised that JAC is rated in the top 10 by the NFL and 12th by me and have had the 4th toughest schedule.

Some may also have noticed GB scraping out of the bottom 10 passing defenses this week but I'd still consider them a suspect passing defense. Nearly every QB facing them from Brees, Cam newton, Cutler, Kyle Orton had 2 or more TDs and well over 300 yards on average. Matt Ryan really struggled against them but again, I think the Packers have yielded a lot of points despite blowing teams out.

Which teams have had only one interception over 5 games? Not the KC Chiefs, they've had 5 picks in 5 games! No, it's the PITTSBURGH STEELERS?!!! Wow. Of course, they've only surrendered 5 passing TDs in the same period and the Bengals have the same line as they do with only 1 pick but only allowing 5 TDs. The Buffalo Bills lead the league with 12 picks on the year but have surrendered 10 passing TDs this year.

RUSHING
The following is based on 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover.


Which team hasn't allowed a single rushing TD through 5 games? The Ravens? No.....San Francisco?! Yes they remain the only team in the NFL to have not yielded a single rushing TD. Here's another surprise, the other teams to have yielded only 1 are BAL, DAL, CLE, DET and TEN but remember that BAL, DAL and CLE have only played 4 games so far this year. Pretty badass eh?

And who has allowed the MOST TDs on the ground so far this year? OMG! The New York Jets have yielded 8 TDs (including 2 to the b-grade Green-Ellis) this year. Only the Arizona Cardinals are as bad as they are in defending their goal line vs. the rush. And the St. Louis Rams, despite yielding a league worst 179 ypg, have only given up 3 TDs on the ground. What kinda strange world do we live in where the Detroit Lions are undefeated and the Jets are the worst rushing defense in the league.

I'm taking the kids to disneyworld this weekend so spotty coverage from here on out until next week's update. Hopefully other cafe members will chime in.

[robotninja]

Thanks for the heads up, I will probably roll the dice with Washington this week, but have Cincy as a 2nd option. I doubted you a bit on the bills last week but I think you have fully turned me at this point.

Have fun in Disney World with the kids.

I'll say it once for you right now. Points against is not a good predictor of Fantasy defense success!

[HotHandz305]

Right now my best options seem to be Wash or Det.

My biggest concern is that in our league we have an addition scoring on D/ST.

0-99 yards is +5 pts, but the big problem is 500+ defensive allowed yards is -5 and Phi has broken the 500 mark once and twice came close.

From weeks 1-5 defenses scored these pts while playing them in my league 5,5,9,3,17.

The redskins have allowed about 300 yards per game defensively against not so great teams in my opinion. NYG, Ari, Dal (highly injured) and StL.



In all do you all believe it would still be better to roll with Was vs Phi who tend to give up a decent amount of turn overs or go with an all round solid Det vs SF?

EDIT* As a note everything else is standard defense scoring in a yahoo fantasy league which I've just read is slightly different from espn when comparing defenses.

[prince_45243]

Right now my best options seem to be Wash or Det.

My biggest concern is that in our league we have an addition scoring on D/ST.

0-99 yards is +5 pts, but the big problem is 500+ defensive allowed yards is -5 and Phi has broken the 500 mark once and twice came close.

That's an interesting twist and yes, there is some reason to worry.
Short answer is: How's your matchup looking? If you think you're going to lose, go for the highest probability of a big Defensive day and go with WAS who I think may give up more than 350-400 yards but I think has a higher chance of a 10+ day. If, however, you look fine to win and just want an above average game with some chance of a monster day, go with DET.

Long answer: Of the teams WAS has faced, PHI is superior to all but DAL in passing YPG and is number 1 in the league in rushing YPG . Passing: PHI is 8th in ypg at 280. The NYG are just behind at 275ypg and the Cowboys get 331 ypg. ARI is farther back at 237ypg and STL a miserable 187 ypg.
Rushing, however, the eagles are number one in rushing ypg at 165.6. Of the teams WAS has faced , the cardinals are 19th at 103 ypg, the rams are 25th at 92.5 ypg , cowboys are 26th at 87ypg, the giants 28th at 84ypg. So in truth, the skins haven't faced the combined vick, mccoy type of threat from a rushing standpoint.

However, I would point out that going from giving up 300 ypg to those other teams to giving up 500 ypg is a pretty big stretch. I am not sure that it would dissuade me against starting the skins as a defense this week but it's possible any given week that Vick will finally stop giving up an average of 2 turnovers per game (he's surrendered 7 picks and 3 fumbles). If he does that vs. WAS, there goes that prediction. History suggests that teams that give up lots of sacks and turnovers continue to do so regularly throughout the season. Only MIA has a higher value to me in starting against.

DET really, really is a solid defense. Honestly, if I had DET, I'd probably start them against SF. I'm more scared about starting SF vs. DET frankly. Statistics aside, I just don't think there are many corners in the NFL that can contain megatron and I think that Best is going to test the SF streak so far of not allowing a TD on the ground. Detroit is in the top 10 for both passing and rushing defense in my estimation largely because of takeaways. They've faced AP and Forte and while both gave up yards, DET still did fine as a defense both of those weeks and above average.

If you're looking for higher reward potential, I think WAS has a better shot of a defensive TD this week but statistically, DET is no better than WAS as a defense and has a lesser opponent. Still, both are in my top 10 and I think either is a legit start.

[HotHandz305]

Right now my best options seem to be Wash or Det.

My biggest concern is that in our league we have an addition scoring on D/ST.

0-99 yards is +5 pts, but the big problem is 500+ defensive allowed yards is -5 and Phi has broken the 500 mark once and twice came close.

That's an interesting twist and yes, there is some reason to worry.
Short answer is: How's your matchup looking? If you think you're going to lose, go for the highest probability of a big Defensive day and go with WAS who I think may give up more than 350-400 yards but I think has a higher chance of a 10+ day. If, however, you look fine to win and just want an above average game with some chance of a monster day, go with DET.

Long answer: Of the teams WAS has faced, PHI is superior to all but DAL in passing YPG and is number 1 in the league in rushing YPG . Passing: PHI is 8th in ypg at 280. The NYG are just behind at 275ypg and the Cowboys get 331 ypg. ARI is farther back at 237ypg and STL a miserable 187 ypg.
Rushing, however, the eagles are number one in rushing ypg at 165.6. Of the teams WAS has faced , the cardinals are 19th at 103 ypg, the rams are 25th at 92.5 ypg , cowboys are 26th at 87ypg, the giants 28th at 84ypg. So in truth, the skins haven't faced the combined vick, mccoy type of threat from a rushing standpoint.

However, I would point out that going from giving up 300 ypg to those other teams to giving up 500 ypg is a pretty big stretch. I am not sure that it would dissuade me against starting the skins as a defense this week but it's possible any given week that Vick will finally stop giving up an average of 2 turnovers per game (he's surrendered 7 picks and 3 fumbles). If he does that vs. WAS, there goes that prediction. History suggests that teams that give up lots of sacks and turnovers continue to do so regularly throughout the season. Only MIA has a higher value to me in starting against.

DET really, really is a solid defense. Honestly, if I had DET, I'd probably start them against SF. I'm more scared about starting SF vs. DET frankly. Statistics aside, I just don't think there are many corners in the NFL that can contain megatron and I think that Best is going to test the SF streak so far of not allowing a TD on the ground. Detroit is in the top 10 for both passing and rushing defense in my estimation largely because of takeaways. They've faced AP and Forte and while both gave up yards, DET still did fine as a defense both of those weeks and above average.

If you're looking for higher reward potential, I think WAS has a better shot of a defensive TD this week but statistically, DET is no better than WAS as a defense and has a lesser opponent. Still, both are in my top 10 and I think either is a legit start.

I'm personally going to roll with Detroit this week due to the 500+ scoring setting.

I was researching similar to what you did about the offenses Washington faced versus Philly's offense and believe Wash has yet to face a truely high power offense like Vick/McCoy. I also believe of the teams listed that due give up alot of turnovers Phi does in my opinion stand a good chance at finally stopping that trend.

I do feel as though I have the advantage this week so I believe your also correct about Det being safer vs the higher upside of Was.

I do believe the numbers and analyzing really give a very accurate projection of what is to come though a little in depth research from a person can help such as the situation you mentioned of favoring Det def over SF def this week.


Thank you for all your help to me and everyone on the forum

[BoyNamedSue]

Very nice article and I'll be sticking with the 49ers D until they do me wrong.

Now, let me put my abacus and compass away...who says FF can't be thought-provoking??

[latsprewell20002000]

Yeah but I would say Washington gets another slight boost from coming off the bye. And you can add that to the fact that Philly is really feeling the pressure now, playing tight, and I think Washington could be in for a big week. Detroit is a good play too, just think I like Washington better.