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What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby FatFoot » Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:48 pm

I want to look at all of those stats and care, because you are passionate about what you've typed, and you believe in what you're saying, but the football nerd in me can't see past the "SEC" in each category, as opposed to the "AFC" in the reality of his playing situation.

There's a reason so many of those network analysts are "overpaid." Film on Tebow in the NFL will expose weaknesses in his game, which, like any other qb, DCs will try to take advantage of, and OCs will try to work around, and QB coaches will try to solve. All of that takes time. It's part of the chess game. Tebow coming out at the end of last year and doing well was the first move. Him not having the starting job at the beginning of the season gave Denver the advantage of being able to sort-of get that bump again. But teams WILL understand how to take him apart after a while, just as teams figured out how to handle Michael Vick again.

Tebow will have to get his release point and footwork better in order to be an accomplished passer in the NFL. I assume he's been working on it, and will continue to do so. But right now, apart from his athleticism and mobility, it's hard for me to consider him an upgrade from Orton, regardless of college accomplishments. This is the big time.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby dgan » Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:51 pm

As he plays right now, Tebow cannot have long term success. The accomplishment list is great - but Tim Crouch had a lot of accomplishments too. College is different than the pros. That's why a guy who was a nobody at Harvard (Fitzgerald) or a backup at Michigan (Brady) can be very successful and guys like Randle El can dominate in college and can't even play the position in the pros.

Throw his college stats out...they simply don't matter.

Now, that said, no one will doubt his intangibles. He has all the things you can't teach. Now he just needs the things you can teach, but not everyone can learn. If he learns them, he'll be good. If not, he'll be sitting next to the other really talented college players playing backup QB in the NFL.

Decker, and all the receivers, are dependent on Tebow changing his game, mechanics, habits, etc... I did find it interesting listening to Jaws (the only time you will ever here that phrase...I promise you) talk about how much Aaron Rodgers changed his mechanics over a single offseason, adding a lot more strength and speed into his throw. He said at the time he could hardly recognize it was the same guy.

I am far from a Tebow fan, but I respect what he's done enough to never count him out. If someone is going to make the major changes he needs to make, it is probably him. I just wouldn't expect it this season, and I think Decker is a fill-in/emergency play only. And not just because of Tebow...Fox wants to run the ball. Period. His offenses are not going to have reliable fantasy receivers, no matter how talented they are.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Oct 17, 2011 7:49 pm

Now that Lloyd has been traded, the outlook for Decker is very good.

I totally disagree that Tebow can't have longterm success as a QB in the NFL. Drew Brees wasn't more impressive physically, nor did he have the better pedigree than Tebow coming out of college. Tebow is already a borderline QB1 in fantasy, and until proven otherwise should be started as one.

Granted, much of Tebow's value will be derived from his running which does not directly benefit Decker or the other receivers, but considering volume of targets with a QB demonstrably capable of producing TDs at the NFL level, Decker has considerably more upside than some are giving him credit for. I don't necessarily expect him to set the world on fire, but he can easily maintain a top 25 level of production if things go right for him.

If you want to say Tim Tebow is Doug Flutie and that his gimmic will eventually run its course, then that's your prerogative, but I'm not willing to say he stinks until he proves it on the field.
Last edited by CBMGreatOne on Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby FatFoot » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:11 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:Now that Lloyd has been traded, the outlook for Decker is very good.

I totally disagree that Tebow can't have longterm success as a QB in the NFL. Drew Brees wasn't more impressive physically, nor did he have the better pedigree than Tebow coming out of college. Tebow is already a borderline QB1 in fantasy, and until proven otherwise should be started as one.

Granted, much of Tebow's value will be derived from his running which does not directly benefit Decker or the other receivers, but considering volume of targets with a QB demonstrably capable of producing TDs at the NFL level, Decker has considerably more upside than some are giving him credit for. I don't necessarily expect him to set the world on fire, but he can easily maintain a top 25 level of production if things go right for him. Cert

If you want to say Tim Tebow is Doug Flutie and that his gimmic will eventually run its course, then that's your prerogative, but I'm not willing to say he stinks until he proves it on the field.


Drew Brees was a much more polished qb, and STILL wasn't really relevant until his last year in SD.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:19 pm

FatFoot wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:Now that Lloyd has been traded, the outlook for Decker is very good.

I totally disagree that Tebow can't have longterm success as a QB in the NFL. Drew Brees wasn't more impressive physically, nor did he have the better pedigree than Tebow coming out of college. Tebow is already a borderline QB1 in fantasy, and until proven otherwise should be started as one.

Granted, much of Tebow's value will be derived from his running which does not directly benefit Decker or the other receivers, but considering volume of targets with a QB demonstrably capable of producing TDs at the NFL level, Decker has considerably more upside than some are giving him credit for. I don't necessarily expect him to set the world on fire, but he can easily maintain a top 25 level of production if things go right for him. Cert

If you want to say Tim Tebow is Doug Flutie and that his gimmic will eventually run its course, then that's your prerogative, but I'm not willing to say he stinks until he proves it on the field.


Drew Brees was a much more polished qb, and STILL wasn't really relevant until his last year in SD.


Drew Brees wasn't a fantasy star until late in his career, but I disagree that he was more polished than Tebow at this point in their respective careers. If you want to say that Drew Brees was more conventional than Tebow in terms of mechanics, style, etc. then fine, but I am going to give Tim credit for being a surprisingly effective, and relatively efficient player. Last year, in his three starts he was top 3 at the QB position and so far he's played one half in 2011 with 2 more TDs.

Could Decker disappoint even if Tebow excels? Sure, but I don't think it is particularly likely and nobody should be burying Tebow or Decker in terms of fantasy value as of this moment. Tebow is a buy low and Decker is a hold.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby FatFoot » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:45 pm

... I believe I pointed that out, re Brees. I don't believe that does anything to support that Tebow is likely to succeed... Nor does it have any bearing on the thread.

Tim Tebow's rushing success won't support an argument that he's positive for Decker. A conventional qb is better for any wr's output.

I just dislike the appeals to Tebow's college achievements. His brand of college football skill is not something I trust in the NFL. I'd take a yound Drew Brees over this Tim any day.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Oct 17, 2011 9:12 pm

FatFoot wrote:... I believe I pointed that out, re Brees. I don't believe that does anything to support that Tebow is likely to succeed... Nor does it have any bearing on the thread.

Tim Tebow's rushing success won't support an argument that he's positive for Decker. A conventional qb is better for any wr's output.

I just dislike the appeals to Tebow's college achievements. His brand of college football skill is not something I trust in the NFL. I'd take a yound Drew Brees over this Tim any day.


Are you saying that you already pointed out that Brees was more "polished" than Tebow or more "conventional." The former is open to a lot more interpretation than the latter. It doesn't matter anyway, as either way it is abundantly relevant to Tebow's productivity and by extension, Decker's fantasy value.

Advanced scouting sources tell me that QBs who are a threat to run the ball can occasionally soften coverages. They go on to say that DeSean Jackson favored Michael Vick over the more "conventional" Kevin Kolb.

The evidence that Tebow is likely to succeed is his unblemished (albeit short) NFL resume of 3 straight QB1 caliber (fantasy) performances followed by 2 more TDs in just one half of work this week. At this point the onus is on you to show me the evidence that he won't succeed, considering yours is the viewpoint that contradicts the currently observable reality.

I never appealed to Tebow's college resume except insomuch as to compare him to Drew Brees at this point in their careers.

My point is that you can sell your Tebow stock, I'm buying. As for Decker, nobody should be considering dropping him at this point. How many players on your roster have 5 TDs?
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby dgan » Mon Oct 17, 2011 9:33 pm

Is this bizarro world? What conversation are we having here?

Brees played in a spread offense in college and broke most Purdue passing records. His only rushing production was when he tripped forward (exaggeration).

Tebow ran the ball more than he threw it in college...in what world does that make them equals at this point in their career????

And ask Roddy White how Vick's rushing production helped his receiving production. White was considered a bust my most until a "conventional" QB took over. DJax has had success because Vick developed as a PASSER. It has nothing to do with Vick's rushing ability.

Anyone not already dead from a Tebow koolaid overdose can see that he's got more fouled up mechanics than if you put Leftwich's torso on top of Favre's legs. There isn't anyone in their right mind that thinks that is going to work for the next 5 years without him adjusting that. He won't be accurate enough, consistent enough, or get the ball out quickly enough to hit WRs while they are open. Long windups give DBs and LBs time to run to the receiver and time for the Dline to get their hands up and knock balls down. Not to mention how many Leftwich-like sacks and empty-hand fumbles that long release invites. And that's assuming he's learned to read defenses - something Brees did every play in college (albeit less complex college defenses).

Add to all of that you have a coach that wants to run the ball 70% of the time (whether it is working or not) and a QB that will keep the ball himself in the redzone, and I don't see how you can expect Decker or any other WR to have more than one or two good games this season.

Yes, the Lloyd trade helps Decker's value, but to me that is almost meaningless since it also corresponds with Tebow taking over.
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Oct 17, 2011 9:49 pm

dgan wrote:Is this bizarro world? What conversation are we having here?

Brees played in a spread offense in college and broke most Purdue passing records. His only rushing production was when he tripped forward (exaggeration).

Tebow ran the ball more than he threw it in college...in what world does that make them equals at this point in their career????

And ask Roddy White how Vick's rushing production helped his receiving production. White was considered a bust my most until a "conventional" QB took over. DJax has had success because Vick developed as a PASSER. It has nothing to do with Vick's rushing ability.

Anyone not already dead from a Tebow koolaid overdose can see that he's got more fouled up mechanics than if you put Leftwich's torso on top of Favre's legs. There isn't anyone in their right mind that thinks that is going to work for the next 5 years without him adjusting that. He won't be accurate enough, consistent enough, or get the ball out quickly enough to hit WRs while they are open. Long windups give DBs and LBs time to run to the receiver and time for the Dline to get their hands up and knock balls down. Not to mention how many Leftwich-like sacks and empty-hand fumbles that long release invites. And that's assuming he's learned to read defenses - something Brees did every play in college (albeit less complex college defenses).

Add to all of that you have a coach that wants to run the ball 70% of the time (whether it is working or not) and a QB that will keep the ball himself in the redzone, and I don't see how you can expect Decker or any other WR to have more than one or two good games this season.

Yes, the Lloyd trade helps Decker's value, but to me that is almost meaningless since it also corresponds with Tebow taking over.


I can respect wanting to throw cold water on Tebow and Decker, but I think the hate had gotten a little out of hand in this thread.

My only point is that some are dismissing both players out of hand right now even though both have been VERY productive in their very young careers. If I'm pitching the kool aid, it is only in reference to people who don't think Tebow is worth owning/are thinking of dropping Decker. I'm all for advanced scouting and trying to go next level on upstart players like Tebow and Decker and trying to be able to read the tea leaves of what is likely to happen going forward, but there is a point (elite short term numbers for both) where you have to say "the guy is producing, ride the hot hand."

Decker isn't going to score 15 TDs this year and Tim Tebow isn't going to be Cam Newton, but neither guy is a bum, and it is a stretch to say that either isn't "likely to succeed."
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Re: What will Tebow do to Eric Decker's Value?

Postby JeRmZ » Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:17 am

dgan wrote:Tebow ran the ball more than he threw it in college...in what world does that make them equals at this point in their career????


FAIL ... here let me post his stats again for those that think he Ran more than he threw the ball in Florida.

PASSING
Lge Team GP Comp Att % Yds TD INT TD% INT% Y/G Y/A RAT
NCAA Totals 55 661 995 66.4 9285 88 16 8.8 1.6 168.8 9.3 170.8

RUSHING
Lge Team GP Att Yards TD
NCAA Totals 55 692 2947 57


So thats 303 MORE passing attempts in basically 3 years (since Chris Leak played most of '06) which works out to be about 100 more passes a year or approximately 10 more pass attempts PER GAME than rush attempts.

By the way ... did anyone bust out the calculator or use your bean in your dome to calculate how many TD's the kid had over a 3 year span ???? 145 .. ONE HUNDRED FOURTY FIVE TD's TOTAL!!!!!


Now since I see Drew Brees pops up in this discussion let's go ahead and take a look at his stats as well ...

PASSING
Lge Team GP Comp Att % Yds TD INT TD% INT% Y/G Y/A RAT
NCAA Totals 40 1026 1668 61.5 11792 90 45 5.4 2.7 294.8 7.1 133.3

RUSHING
Lge Team GP Att Yards TD % Y/G LNG
NCAA Totals 40 253 900 14 3.56 22.50 11

Let's look at this Tebow plays 15 more games, has 700 less attempts - scores 2 less TD's but also has 39 less INT's and his rating is about 40% higher than Brees. But yet Tebow is "unconventional"
Tebow Obviously was a better runner than Brees so we won't even talk that up, but to say Brees did not run at all is fail ... I see 253 attempts for 900 yards and 14 TD's


Everyone can keep Hating on Tebow .. he loves it, I've noticed after doing so much research on him, that the hate people have had for the kid throughout his career has only fueled him to do what he has done! .... WIN.

as he translates to Fantasy and such ... well I think that speaks for itself. I for one know he will be in my lineup this weekend and then based on matchups and such maybe several weekends after that!!
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