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Jordy Nelson

Postby tah161 » Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:45 pm

What the heck is going on with this dude?

Is he in the dog house or something? That pass Jones caught is normally Jordy's spot, but instead I have barely even seen him on the field so far in this game.

I just dont understand. I have only seen him on the field for maybe 5 plays...
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby tah161 » Sun Oct 16, 2011 12:53 pm

Finally YES!!!!!!!!!!


However, I would still be interested to see how many total plays he is on the field for.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby dgan » Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:03 pm

I've been telling people to watch out for James Jones. He and Nelson will cancel each other out from week to week. Driver is the key...until he is hurt/retired/benched, neither of these guys will get enough face time to be consistent/predictable fantasy producers. You can roll the dice with them, but you can't be disappointed when the "other guy" scores.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby tah161 » Sun Oct 16, 2011 1:32 pm

dgan wrote:I've been telling people to watch out for James Jones. He and Nelson will cancel each other out from week to week. Driver is the key...until he is hurt/retired/benched, neither of these guys will get enough face time to be consistent/predictable fantasy producers. You can roll the dice with them, but you can't be disappointed when the "other guy" scores.


Yes, that is true. Luckily they both got theirs today.

Thing is I figured Jordy was slated as the undisputed number 2 wide out. They just gave him a pretty nice contract. Its also frustrating not to see him on the field a lot of the time.

Either way, Driver does complicate things even though he has taken a back seat to both these guys so far this year.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby Jeff Kearns » Sun Oct 16, 2011 3:56 pm

Rodgers will always throw to the open man. That's why all of the Packers receivers are decent options, but only Jennings and Finley are great options. Driver will be the starting WR2 for Green Bay until he retires. He's given enough to the organization and is still preductive enough to deserve that. But you really can't expect to much out of No. 3 and 4 WRs in the world of fantasy football regardless of how talented they are.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Jeff Kearns wrote:Rodgers will always throw to the open man. That's why all of the Packers receivers are decent options, but only Jennings and Finley are great options. Driver will be the starting WR2 for Green Bay until he retires. He's given enough to the organization and is still preductive enough to deserve that. But you really can't expect to much out of No. 3 and 4 WRs in the world of fantasy football regardless of how talented they are.


How can you even say Finley is a great option? Hes not. Hes had one great game surrounded by terribleness.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby dgan » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:31 pm

He just said Rodgers spreads the ball around. 5 different players have multiple TD receptions, and 5 have 15 or more receptions.

Nonetheless, Finley is ranked 5th among TEs in non-ppr.

On the best passing offense in the league, he ranks:
2nd in receptions
3rd in yards
3rd in TDs

Did all of his TDs come in one game? Sure. But are you watching these games. He is getting double-teamed more than Jennings, particularly in the red zone. And don't forget, he hasn't even played 2 full seasons worth of games yet in a complicated offense.

Not to get another thread derailed...the point is Rodgers uses everyone. It's going to be difficult for Nelson or Jones to be consistent because they are not on the field all the time. Jennings and Finley are the only two that never come off the field, so they are your most reliable fantasy options.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby Sex Panther » Wed Oct 19, 2011 11:45 am

Not to derail either, but Finley is like the old version of Lee Evans of TE's - capable of huge weeks vs anybody, but MIA for fantasy purposes for weeks at a time.

Him being out there is vital to the Packers offense being the juggernaught it is - he commands so much attention it makes all the other guys that much better - guys like Nelson & Jones.

Not much you can do about it as a Finley owner - if you have him you have to start him and just be prepared for the meager stat totals and reap the benefits of the occasional monster games.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby dgan » Wed Oct 19, 2011 6:52 pm

Sex Panther wrote:Not to derail either, but Finley is like the old version of Lee Evans of TE's - capable of huge weeks vs anybody, but MIA for fantasy purposes for weeks at a time.


Isn't that the case for most TEs, though? Even the best TEs average in the vicinity of 50 yds receiving per game. Which means a lot of 3, 5, and 7 pt outings any time they don't reach the endzone. The knock on Finley right now is that he scored 3 TDs one game, and his been shut out of the others. But I think he's far too young right now to simply extrapilate low TD totals based on what we've seen a few games last season before he got hurt and this season so far.

Finley and Jennings are only going to get better. If you're looking at opportunity from Nelson or Jones, it will have to come from beating out the other guy and then taking over for Driver. If they can't do those two things, you'll see a lot more of the same from them.

Also I think it is important to point out that Nelson and Jones are different style receivers. Nelson is faster, tends to run crisper routes, and makes people miss after the catch. Jones is bigger, stronger, a good leaper, and physical...breaks tackles. He has had a problem with drops prior to this year (but Driver appears to taken that role over). So it will probably be difficult for them to really elevate themselves over one another because the coaches really like to utilize their different strengths in different ways.

If I had to guess, I'd say eventually Driver becomes the role player, Jones plays more out wide and Nelson plays a Welker type role in the slot. But the Packer offense is so diverse, I don't see them ever pigeon-holed into specific roles.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby Sex Panther » Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:08 am

dgan wrote:
Sex Panther wrote:Not to derail either, but Finley is like the old version of Lee Evans of TE's - capable of huge weeks vs anybody, but MIA for fantasy purposes for weeks at a time.


Isn't that the case for most TEs, though? Even the best TEs average in the vicinity of 50 yds receiving per game. Which means a lot of 3, 5, and 7 pt outings any time they don't reach the endzone. The knock on Finley right now is that he scored 3 TDs one game, and his been shut out of the others. But I think he's far too young right now to simply extrapilate low TD totals based on what we've seen a few games last season before he got hurt and this season so far.

Finley and Jennings are only going to get better. If you're looking at opportunity from Nelson or Jones, it will have to come from beating out the other guy and then taking over for Driver. If they can't do those two things, you'll see a lot more of the same from them.

Also I think it is important to point out that Nelson and Jones are different style receivers. Nelson is faster, tends to run crisper routes, and makes people miss after the catch. Jones is bigger, stronger, a good leaper, and physical...breaks tackles. He has had a problem with drops prior to this year (but Driver appears to taken that role over). So it will probably be difficult for them to really elevate themselves over one another because the coaches really like to utilize their different strengths in different ways.

If I had to guess, I'd say eventually Driver becomes the role player, Jones plays more out wide and Nelson plays a Welker type role in the slot. But the Packer offense is so diverse, I don't see them ever pigeon-holed into specific roles.


Most TE's aren't drafted in the 5th round.

Finley's ADP & going into the season expectations were/are much greater than what he's been producing.

I'm sure when people invested a relatively high draft pick on him this summer, this isn't the return they were expecting.

I'm not doubting his immense talent or that he is arguably the 2nd most important piece of the Packers juggernaught offense. I'm just saying he hasn't lived up to expectations - IMO, that is hard to argue against.

He's had 1 game with more than 5 catches, he's had 0 100 yard games, he's caught a TD pass in only 1 game (he happened to catch 3).

He has had 1 good (actually monster game) & a bunch of mediocre or duds through 6 weeks.

Using 6+ in standard, 9+ in .5 PPR, 12+ in full PPR as a measuring stick for "useable/reasonable expectations" from your TE slot Finley has delivered the following lines -

wk1 3/53/0 - 5.3/6.8/8.3 - dud/dud/dud
wk2 5/68/0 - 6.8/9.3/11.8 - decent/decent/decent
wk3 7/85/3 - 26.5/30/33.5 - stud/stud/stud
wk4 3/28/0 - 2.8/4.3/5.8 - dud/dud/dud
wk5 4/67/0 - 6.7/8.7/10.7 - decent/dud/dud
wk6 1/20/0 - 2.0/2.5/3.0 - dud/dud/dud

In stand scoring formats, 52.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 8.35 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

In .5 PPR formats, 48.7% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 10.27 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

In full PPR formats, 45.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 12.18 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

Finley belongs in the conversation of "who's been the biggest dissapointment in fantasy 2011"

I'm sure his end of year statistics will be gaudy, I'm also fairly certain that a disproportionate chunk of those stats will come in a handful of games based on early returns - very similar to Lee Evans in his heyday.

Hindsight is always 20/20, that said, I'm fairly certain the vast majority of Finley owners who spent a 5th round pick on him at the end of August or beginning of September haven't got what they thought they paid for considering what guys like Graham/Daniels/Hernadez/Gornkowski/etc.. are doing with a much cheaper price tag.

Biggest problem with him is that if you have him rostered, you really have no choice but to play him based on ceiling/upside/potential & you can't trade him unless you want to get 50 cents on the dollar.
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