Sex Panther wrote:Not to derail either, but Finley is like the old version of Lee Evans of TE's - capable of huge weeks vs anybody, but MIA for fantasy purposes for weeks at a time.
Isn't that the case for most TEs, though? Even the best TEs average in the vicinity of 50 yds receiving per game. Which means a lot of 3, 5, and 7 pt outings any time they don't reach the endzone. The knock on Finley right now is that he scored 3 TDs one game, and his been shut out of the others. But I think he's far too young right now to simply extrapilate low TD totals based on what we've seen a few games last season before he got hurt and this season so far.
Finley and Jennings are only going to get better. If you're looking at opportunity from Nelson or Jones, it will have to come from beating out the other guy and then taking over for Driver. If they can't do those two things, you'll see a lot more of the same from them.
Also I think it is important to point out that Nelson and Jones are different style receivers. Nelson is faster, tends to run crisper routes, and makes people miss after the catch. Jones is bigger, stronger, a good leaper, and physical...breaks tackles. He has had a problem with drops prior to this year (but Driver appears to taken that role over). So it will probably be difficult for them to really elevate themselves over one another because the coaches really like to utilize their different strengths in different ways.
If I had to guess, I'd say eventually Driver becomes the role player, Jones plays more out wide and Nelson plays a Welker type role in the slot. But the Packer offense is so diverse, I don't see them ever pigeon-holed into specific roles.
Most TE's aren't drafted in the 5th round.
Finley's ADP & going into the season expectations were/are much greater than what he's been producing.
I'm sure when people invested a relatively high draft pick on him this summer, this isn't the return they were expecting.
I'm not doubting his immense talent or that he is arguably the 2nd most important piece of the Packers juggernaught offense. I'm just saying he hasn't lived up to expectations - IMO, that is hard to argue against.
He's had 1 game with more than 5 catches, he's had 0 100 yard games, he's caught a TD pass in only 1 game (he happened to catch 3).
He has had 1 good (actually monster game) & a bunch of mediocre or duds through 6 weeks.
Using 6+ in standard, 9+ in .5 PPR, 12+ in full PPR as a measuring stick for "useable/reasonable expectations" from your TE slot Finley has delivered the following lines -
wk1 3/53/0 - 5.3/6.8/8.3 - dud/dud/dud
wk2 5/68/0 - 6.8/9.3/11.8 - decent/decent/decent
wk3 7/85/3 - 26.5/30/33.5 - stud/stud/stud
wk4 3/28/0 - 2.8/4.3/5.8 - dud/dud/dud
wk5 4/67/0 - 6.7/8.7/10.7 - decent/dud/dud
wk6 1/20/0 - 2.0/2.5/3.0 - dud/dud/dud
In stand scoring formats, 52.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 8.35 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.
In .5 PPR formats, 48.7% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 10.27 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.
In full PPR formats, 45.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 12.18 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.
Finley belongs in the conversation of "who's been the biggest dissapointment in fantasy 2011"
I'm sure his end of year statistics will be gaudy, I'm also fairly certain that a disproportionate chunk of those stats will come in a handful of games based on early returns - very similar to Lee Evans in his heyday.
Hindsight is always 20/20, that said, I'm fairly certain the vast majority of Finley owners who spent a 5th round pick on him at the end of August or beginning of September haven't got what they thought they paid for considering what guys like Graham/Daniels/Hernadez/Gornkowski/etc.. are doing with a much cheaper price tag.
Biggest problem with him is that if you have him rostered, you really have no choice but to play him based on ceiling/upside/potential & you can't trade him unless you want to get 50 cents on the dollar.