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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:11 pm

Sex Panther wrote:
dgan wrote:
Sex Panther wrote:Not to derail either, but Finley is like the old version of Lee Evans of TE's - capable of huge weeks vs anybody, but MIA for fantasy purposes for weeks at a time.


Isn't that the case for most TEs, though? Even the best TEs average in the vicinity of 50 yds receiving per game. Which means a lot of 3, 5, and 7 pt outings any time they don't reach the endzone. The knock on Finley right now is that he scored 3 TDs one game, and his been shut out of the others. But I think he's far too young right now to simply extrapilate low TD totals based on what we've seen a few games last season before he got hurt and this season so far.

Finley and Jennings are only going to get better. If you're looking at opportunity from Nelson or Jones, it will have to come from beating out the other guy and then taking over for Driver. If they can't do those two things, you'll see a lot more of the same from them.

Also I think it is important to point out that Nelson and Jones are different style receivers. Nelson is faster, tends to run crisper routes, and makes people miss after the catch. Jones is bigger, stronger, a good leaper, and physical...breaks tackles. He has had a problem with drops prior to this year (but Driver appears to taken that role over). So it will probably be difficult for them to really elevate themselves over one another because the coaches really like to utilize their different strengths in different ways.

If I had to guess, I'd say eventually Driver becomes the role player, Jones plays more out wide and Nelson plays a Welker type role in the slot. But the Packer offense is so diverse, I don't see them ever pigeon-holed into specific roles.


Most TE's aren't drafted in the 5th round.

Finley's ADP & going into the season expectations were/are much greater than what he's been producing.

I'm sure when people invested a relatively high draft pick on him this summer, this isn't the return they were expecting.

I'm not doubting his immense talent or that he is arguably the 2nd most important piece of the Packers juggernaught offense. I'm just saying he hasn't lived up to expectations - IMO, that is hard to argue against.

He's had 1 game with more than 5 catches, he's had 0 100 yard games, he's caught a TD pass in only 1 game (he happened to catch 3).

He has had 1 good (actually monster game) & a bunch of mediocre or duds through 6 weeks.

Using 6+ in standard, 9+ in .5 PPR, 12+ in full PPR as a measuring stick for "useable/reasonable expectations" from your TE slot Finley has delivered the following lines -

wk1 3/53/0 - 5.3/6.8/8.3 - dud/dud/dud
wk2 5/68/0 - 6.8/9.3/11.8 - decent/decent/decent
wk3 7/85/3 - 26.5/30/33.5 - stud/stud/stud
wk4 3/28/0 - 2.8/4.3/5.8 - dud/dud/dud
wk5 4/67/0 - 6.7/8.7/10.7 - decent/dud/dud
wk6 1/20/0 - 2.0/2.5/3.0 - dud/dud/dud

In stand scoring formats, 52.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 8.35 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

In .5 PPR formats, 48.7% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 10.27 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

In full PPR formats, 45.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 12.18 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

Finley belongs in the conversation of "who's been the biggest dissapointment in fantasy 2011"

I'm sure his end of year statistics will be gaudy, I'm also fairly certain that a disproportionate chunk of those stats will come in a handful of games based on early returns - very similar to Lee Evans in his heyday.

Hindsight is always 20/20, that said, I'm fairly certain the vast majority of Finley owners who spent a 5th round pick on him at the end of August or beginning of September haven't got what they thought they paid for considering what guys like Graham/Daniels/Hernadez/Gornkowski/etc.. are doing with a much cheaper price tag.

Biggest problem with him is that if you have him rostered, you really have no choice but to play him based on ceiling/upside/potential & you can't trade him unless you want to get 50 cents on the dollar.


Wow, you said it way better than I did!!
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby dgan » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:13 pm

Sex Panther wrote:
dgan wrote:
Sex Panther wrote:Not to derail either, but Finley is like the old version of Lee Evans of TE's - capable of huge weeks vs anybody, but MIA for fantasy purposes for weeks at a time.


Isn't that the case for most TEs, though? Even the best TEs average in the vicinity of 50 yds receiving per game. Which means a lot of 3, 5, and 7 pt outings any time they don't reach the endzone. The knock on Finley right now is that he scored 3 TDs one game, and his been shut out of the others. But I think he's far too young right now to simply extrapilate low TD totals based on what we've seen a few games last season before he got hurt and this season so far.

Finley and Jennings are only going to get better. If you're looking at opportunity from Nelson or Jones, it will have to come from beating out the other guy and then taking over for Driver. If they can't do those two things, you'll see a lot more of the same from them.

Also I think it is important to point out that Nelson and Jones are different style receivers. Nelson is faster, tends to run crisper routes, and makes people miss after the catch. Jones is bigger, stronger, a good leaper, and physical...breaks tackles. He has had a problem with drops prior to this year (but Driver appears to taken that role over). So it will probably be difficult for them to really elevate themselves over one another because the coaches really like to utilize their different strengths in different ways.

If I had to guess, I'd say eventually Driver becomes the role player, Jones plays more out wide and Nelson plays a Welker type role in the slot. But the Packer offense is so diverse, I don't see them ever pigeon-holed into specific roles.


Most TE's aren't drafted in the 5th round.

Finley's ADP & going into the season expectations were/are much greater than what he's been producing.

I'm sure when people invested a relatively high draft pick on him this summer, this isn't the return they were expecting.

I'm not doubting his immense talent or that he is arguably the 2nd most important piece of the Packers juggernaught offense. I'm just saying he hasn't lived up to expectations - IMO, that is hard to argue against.

He's had 1 game with more than 5 catches, he's had 0 100 yard games, he's caught a TD pass in only 1 game (he happened to catch 3).

He has had 1 good (actually monster game) & a bunch of mediocre or duds through 6 weeks.

Using 6+ in standard, 9+ in .5 PPR, 12+ in full PPR as a measuring stick for "useable/reasonable expectations" from your TE slot Finley has delivered the following lines -

wk1 3/53/0 - 5.3/6.8/8.3 - dud/dud/dud
wk2 5/68/0 - 6.8/9.3/11.8 - decent/decent/decent
wk3 7/85/3 - 26.5/30/33.5 - stud/stud/stud
wk4 3/28/0 - 2.8/4.3/5.8 - dud/dud/dud
wk5 4/67/0 - 6.7/8.7/10.7 - decent/dud/dud
wk6 1/20/0 - 2.0/2.5/3.0 - dud/dud/dud

In stand scoring formats, 52.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 8.35 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

In .5 PPR formats, 48.7% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 10.27 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

In full PPR formats, 45.8% of his points came in week 3, he's got a 12.18 PPG average - he hasn't hit that number or better in any week but week 3.

Finley belongs in the conversation of "who's been the biggest dissapointment in fantasy 2011"

I'm sure his end of year statistics will be gaudy, I'm also fairly certain that a disproportionate chunk of those stats will come in a handful of games based on early returns - very similar to Lee Evans in his heyday.

Hindsight is always 20/20, that said, I'm fairly certain the vast majority of Finley owners who spent a 5th round pick on him at the end of August or beginning of September haven't got what they thought they paid for considering what guys like Graham/Daniels/Hernadez/Gornkowski/etc.. are doing with a much cheaper price tag.

Biggest problem with him is that if you have him rostered, you really have no choice but to play him based on ceiling/upside/potential & you can't trade him unless you want to get 50 cents on the dollar.


You're sort of missing my point. Let's say it another way...

Two best TEs over the past decade:

Tony Gonzalez BEST TD producing season, he scored 11 TDs. He had 7 games that season without a TD.

Antonio Gates BEST TD producing season, he scored 13 TDs. 7 games he did not reach the endzone.

Now, I get that prior to this week, Finley had only lived up to expectations 1 out of 6 times. But to my point - even the greatest fantasy TEs in their BEST seasons had weeks at a time without reaching the endzone. In their other "less-than-best" seasons, they had many 6 week periods that look just like Finley.

All I'm saying is that if you're drafting a TE to get you 12 points every week, it just isn't going to happen. A great TE season is 800/10, which is an average of 50ypg and a TD in half of them. The reason a TE like Gonzalez in his day or Gates or now Finley goes so high is because they are going to have 5 or 6 games during the season where they are going to give you a double-digit advantage over your fantasy opponents. Those rare players at that positioin can win fantasy games on their own. So I don't know that Finley owners should feel anything other than his bigger fantasy games are ahead of him. For every owner that draft Graham or Gronkowski, there was another that drafted VD or Winslow. The value of a high pick has as much to do with floor as it does with ceiling.

I wish I had a way to tie that back into this thread....but I think it's officially derailed. :-b I will say Jones looked better than Nelson today, and Nelson does play on special teams, increasing his risk of injury. I'd guess we are a couple games away from it being Jennings and Jones, with Nelson sharing that WR2 time but also playing as the 3rd WR. Driver will be a role player on third downs....that also will give them more opportunity to get Cobb on the field.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:17 pm

It would have been Jones job a long time ago if he could catch the ball.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby dgan » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:41 pm

latsprewell20002000 wrote:It would have been Jones job a long time ago if he could catch the ball.


No doubt. In the past, I think part of it was that Jones is really more of a possession-type receiver. His big plays usually come from breaking tackles - not outrunning people. (Very similar to Driver...while Driver is small, he's always played bigger than he is and made a career as a possession WR.) With Jennings and Driver, Nelson was the best guy to loosen up the D with his speed. Jones was more of a out-of-place third wheel when lined up with Jennings and Driver. So my assumption is that Jones will continue to take more and more of Driver's role, and Nelson will continue to do what he has been doing, which is play all over the formation and just be a matchup headache for defenses.

All speculative, of course, but that's how the writing on the wall looks to me. Driver just can't separate anymore, plus he's had a case of the dropsies the first few weeks so there really isn't a good reason to have him in there except for clutch 3rd and short situations.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby TitsMcGahee » Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:13 pm

Going forward would you rather have Jordy Nelson or James Jones?? I need to drop one of them for Antonio Brown for the bye week ...
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby dgan » Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:24 pm

Nelson has the longer track record. You pretty much know what you're going to get from him. If you need to know you're going to get production, he's the clear choice.

I personally have always liked the potential of Jones. I think he has the skillset to be a 1200/10 WR. But he hasn't stayed healthy, hasn't been reliable on routes or catches, and no other NFL team showed much interest in him when he was in free agency. So he is a huge gamble. But if you're taking a flyer, I think he has more upside then Nelson.

Just a gut feeling though...my guess is a large majority of people here would tell you Nelson is the right choice.
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Re: Jordy Nelson

Postby The Lung » Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:33 pm

TitsMcGahee wrote:Going forward would you rather have Jordy Nelson or James Jones?? I need to drop one of them for Antonio Brown for the bye week ...


Jordy Nelson, and it's not even close. ;-D
(~);}

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(~);}
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