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Defense Analyzer - Week 7

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Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:26 am

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=503013

Median DST score was 5 points, average was 5.9 points in my NFL league.

Last week's outcomes:
1) NYJ - 23
2) WAS - 7
3) BAL - 5
4) GB - 12
5) BUF - 0
6) SF - 8
7) NE - 7
8) DET - 6
9) MIN - -1
10) HOU - 5

Bottom 10:

JAC-4
TB -9
CAR-0
IND-0
NO-0
CHI-17
STL-3
CLE-4
MIA-5
CIN - 14

Once more there were 4 teams beneath the average this week making our tally so far 18/30 or 60% of the top 10 being above the average score. 7 teams had more than 10 points. Two of them were in my bottom 10. The bears had a return TD and a safety worth a total of 8 points and that would have been very hard to predict although Hester is a threat for 3-4 returns in a season. Cincinnati had 14 points including a defensive TD and 3 turnovers in a very strong day, the analyzer jsut blew that call. Baltimore dominated their game but had no turnovers and allowed 14 points. Buffalo had no sacks or turnovers for the first time this year and allowed 27 points. Analyzer blew that one as well. The Vikings were the worst call on that one. 1 sack, 1 turnover and allowing 37 points. 3 of the bottom 10 had above average scores for a total of 8/30 or roughly 27%. Thus, we're more than twice as likely to have an above average day in the top 10 than the bottom 10.

Of my never sits: NYJ-23, GB -12, BAL-5; most already discussed.
Of my need good reason to sit: NYG-7, SF-8, CHI-17, DET-6; PIT used to be on this list but had some rough weeks but 9 vs. JAX.

Of the other teams that did well, DAL had 12 points off the strength of 4 turnovers by NE. The analyzer didn't see that one coming. And Philly also did well on the strength of Rex's toiletbowling game. Oakland also had a special teams return for a TD which put them over 10 points. Don't know of any system that could predict that one.

So pressing on!

DEFENSE:
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.

I've previously said that NYJ, BAL and GB are teams that should probably be started every week regardless of matchup. I've also been impressed with NYG, DET, SF and CHI and think they may be good starts regardless of matchup as well. The BYE teams are still listed. The bye 'score' btw, is just the alphabetically best fit for the computer so please ignore it.

Image

A few sneakier picks in there. Denver vs. MIA seems like an interesting matchup. Tebow gets one of the league's worst passing defenses and MIA is really coughing up the sacks (18) and turnovers (7 picks and 6 fumbles). Washington should be above average just in turnovers that Cam Newton is likely to produce, let alone that they will bring a lot of heat on his passing game. I seriously doubt that STL will actually perform this week and they are there mostly because of Dallas' poor protection of the ball. However, I anticipate a pretty hefty Dallas domination of this game. Another sneaky pick could be Cle vs. Sea. Sea has given up a ridiculous 20 sacks in only 5 games along with 9 turnovers in the same time frame. Cle has a respectable 13 sacks and 7 turnovers over their 5 games.

Despite being a terrible offensive team, Indy seems to always be on the low end of the list to start against. They have yielded very few Turnovers until Cincy and 11 sacks through 6 games. I'm a little curious to see if NO just destroys them or not. Indy is 22nd against the pass and 28th vs. the rush. CHI vs. TB ends up very low on this weeks list. I do think CHI is a good defense but they have struggled to grab turnovers and TB isn't giving up a lot.

PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

Each line shows my rank, the team, the NFL's rank, the average score they are yielding opposing passers, and the toughness of their schedule so far this year. For example, the NYJ are my number 1 passing defense, they are the NFL's number 5 ranked defense. They are yielding opponents only 8.9 points per game on average and have faced the 8th toughest schedule so far.

You should also note that this is passing only and if your qb has good legs, look also at the rushing rankings.
You should also note that this doesn't take into account their opponent that week.

PASSING
Image

Once more the jets, baltimore, washington dominate the top of the ladder. Those who are watching Cam Newton should note that he had monster yards vs. ARI, GB but cooled off considerably after that vs. JAC (rain), great games vs. CHI and NO (both bottom 10 passing defenses) but struggled badly vs. ATL. So other than ARI, Cam has really performed predictably well vs. bottom 10 passing defenses, mediocre to poor vs. midling defenses and now faces a number 3 ranked WAS defense. The stats suggest he's about to get really ugly here.

SF has fallen off the top 10. Oakland continues to creep lower on the passing defense list. Pit has gone 6 games and only managed 2 picks. Cincy and Miami are marginally better at 2 picks but Miami has yielded 10 TD through the air in only 5 games. Oakland and NOs may be contenders for the playoffs this year but they both share the distinction of having yielded a league worst 12 TD through the air through 6 games. KC also has yielded 12 and did that in only 5 games. As good as Buffalo is on turnovers, they have a league worst 4 sacks on the year. Atlanta is also pretty bad at only 5 sacks. Even Carolina has 8 and compare that to the league leading Redskins with 21 sacks!.

RUSHING
The following is based on 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover.

Image

Always surprised to see DAL so high in these rankings. I don't think much of them as a defense but they have yielded only 1 TD on the ground all season and only 69.6 ypg game on the ground. But the jets continue to be a rushing sieve. 132 ypg and 8 TDs.

San Francisco has gone another week without yielding a TD on the ground and oppposing rushers continue to do poorly against them. Seattle is still absurdly ranked as the second best rushign defense in the league based on yielding only 97.8 ypg but they have allowed 5 rushing TDs and have only 2 ff for the year and I think are a safe defense to rush against. Before retiring with a neck injury, even the laughable Reggie Bush had 71 yds rushing against them. Ryan Mathews yes but I worry about Rivers to VJax this week. They're on my never sit lists but it looks perilous! Remember what I said a few weeks ago, Rivers and VJax have had the luxury of bottom 10 passing defenses through most of the season so far.

This information is for entertainment purposes only. Please do not replace common sense and good judgment with a bunch of statistics.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby rasmusDoh » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:54 am

Love these posts! Thank you!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby robotninja » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:38 pm

I actually was glad to see Dallas so high because they were my gut feeling this week based on matchup. That is my play for the week and it gets even sweeter if Bradford doesnt play.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 18, 2011 2:21 pm

Thanks. However, I've been side-tracking my accuracy vs. some other prediction tools and am finding that I'm pretty close to the Yahoo's rate of predictions.

Yahoo Week 6 DST rankings were:
1) GB - 12
2) NYJ - 23
3) PIT - 9 (not on my list)
4) CIN - 14 (not on my list)
5) DET- 6
6) BAL - 5
7) MIN - -1
8) CHI - 17 (not on my list)
9) WAS - 7
10) NYG - 7 (not on my list

Yahoo actually predicted 7/10 as being above average to my 6/10 and we both had 4/7 of the break out games. Pretty close. Interestingly, BUF -0, SF-8, NE-7, and HOU-5 were on my list but not theirs. So all 4 of the Yahoo's that weren't on my list had above average games with 2 being breakouts while only 2 out of my 4 not on yahoo's list had an above average game and none had a break out. Yahoo wins!

On week 5:
1) NYG - 11
2) DET - 7
3) SD - 3 (not on my list)
4) MIN - 16 (not on my list)
5) TEN- -1
6) HOU-5 (not on my list)
7) NO-3 (not on my list)
8) CIN-14
9) GB - 6
10) SF -22

Yahoo had 4 picks that were not on my top 10 in week 5 of which 1 had a breakout game but other 3 were below average. Overall, they had 6/10 as being above average and 4/7 of the break out games which was the same as my analyzer. On my list but not theirs was BUF-17, NE-2, TB- -2, NYJ-5. Only 1 of theirs that wasn't on my list was above average and also had a break out. One of mine that wasn't on their list was a breakout and above average. Thus, that's just a tie between the two systems.

Overall, I'm thrilled that my simple excel sheet calculation is as good a predictor as a composite ranking of four experts sifting tons of information and complex analyses. However, I think it's a good reality check that this isn't the end-all/be-all of defense predictors and that there is a lot of good in the world out there. The only problem I see with the Yahoo system is that they didn't post their week 6 ranking until Wednesday and their Week 5 ranking until Thursday and my waiver wire procs at Tuesday midnight. But probably worth looking at both.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby curtk » Tue Oct 18, 2011 6:59 pm

I picked up CLE the first thing Monday but am thinking about dropping them for WAS. WAS D has played better and CAR should turn it over enough. Although SEA has given up plenty of sacks, they only have given up five picks, while CAR has thrown almost twice that many. Given that Cam has seemed human lately, and WAS has had an extra week to prepare for him, I think WAS may have a decent day against CAR. Is that enough to tip the scales for WAS?

WAS D + CAR O = 14 INT and 28 sacks.
CLE D + SEA O = 8 INT and 33 sacks.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Oct 19, 2011 8:14 am

curtk wrote:I picked up CLE the first thing Monday but am thinking about dropping them for WAS. WAS D has played better and CAR should turn it over enough. Although SEA has given up plenty of sacks, they only have given up five picks, while CAR has thrown almost twice that many. Given that Cam has seemed human lately, and WAS has had an extra week to prepare for him, I think WAS may have a decent day against CAR. Is that enough to tip the scales for WAS?

WAS D + CAR O = 14 INT and 28 sacks.
CLE D + SEA O = 8 INT and 33 sacks.


It's a fine line you're cutting there. I'm afraid I can't really make that call but I like your logic and if you want some further stats, CLE has only had 3 picks this year to 5 for the skins. But is that really a 'big' difference? WAS has a clear advantage in points against for the year allowing one of the league best 83 points in 5 games or only 16.6 points on average to Clevelands 111 or 22.2 points on average per game. But would that make a difference in your scoring regime? Cleveland is a pretty solid defense. 4th by NFL against the pass, a midling 14th on my ranking and 6th against the rush on mine and the NFL's ranking. Was is 3rd against the pass but midling against the rush at 18th. Was is traveling to Carolina, Cle is hosting Sea. WAS' qb just tanked a game and maybe spirits are low but is that bad for this week or good?

To me, it's so close between those two that I'm getting down to reading the tea leaves.

There's a lot of luck in fantasy football. What can I say but good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby Itchy » Wed Oct 19, 2011 5:20 pm

I am also between Cleveland and Washington. I just read that Haden will be out this weekend, do you know if that's true? Also, would that change your thinking at all? Thanks!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby curtk » Wed Oct 19, 2011 9:28 pm

Itchy wrote:I am also between Cleveland and Washington. I just read that Haden will be out this weekend, do you know if that's true? Also, would that change your thinking at all? Thanks!


I've already made the move and dropped CLE (v SEA) for WAS (@CAR), so for me, hearing that Haden is out just makes me feel better about the swap.

I'm trying to not over analyze this, but I've screwed up a couple of times so far this season and selected the "wrong" defense, when I could've picked the "right" one out of the FA pool. I've got a similar Excel spreadsheet that I've used for a couple of years, and I heartily agree with using turnovers and sacks to rate matchups. In general, when confronted with this type of decision, it seems that it's more advisable to select the better defense against the better offense, than to pick the lesser defense against a worse offense. That's really just the way it seems to me...I have never taken the time to go back and actually run those numbers. And because they're worth more, I usually give the nod to turnovers over sacks during a close call. So, is CLE a lesser defense than WAS?

As far as their opponents go, SEA and CAR have a common opponent recently. They each played ATL within the last three weeks. In my league, ATL's defense only scored 3 fantasy points against SEA, while they scored 9 against CAR. Solely based on the common opponent, facing CAR seems better for fantasy purposes. Of course, in real life, many factors can make a difference: maybe ATL just matches up better against CAR, for instance, and maybe WAS doesn't matchup well against them. (I know they had another common opponent earlier, but now teams may be beginning to adjust to Cam, so I don't think that's as relevant.)

At this point, I've looked at this for what seems like hours, and my head hurts. I think I've got my D for the week! :)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:08 am

Just to add Yahoo's predictions just posted today.

1) BAL
2) DAL
3) GB
4) PIT
5) NO
6) CHI
7) DET
8) NYJ
9) SD
10) CLE

Washington is 13th on Yahoo.
Den v. MIa, Was v. Car, Stl v. Dal are on my top 10 but not theirs. I'm hesitant about STL as well. And they have PIT vs. ARI, NO v. IND and SD v. NYJ on their top 10. I agree with PIT being likely a top 10 and would replace STL on my list with them. Not sure about NO and SD, will be interesting to see if either Den or Was do better than NO or SD as a defense this weekend. But the other 7 are on both lists and I think are good to go.

(If you're playing WW Wednesday, the yahoo post comes awfully late.)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby HotHandz305 » Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:42 pm

I had dropped Detroit for Denever, do you all think that was a bad idea? I'm 5-1 and this weeks match up seems to be my hardest so far with Jahvid Best's injury and bye week difficulties.
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