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Defense Analyzer - Week 7

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:58 pm

I'm not sure if Best's injury will make that much of a difference and I really do like Denver's matchup vs. Miami. Matt Moore can really cough up the ball sometimes. Detroit has typically been a little above average all year with two break out games vs. high likely teams like KC. The Denver defense hasn't done much but have faced some teams that don't cough up the ball much (OAK, CIN, TEN, GB) and did fine in some of those games (OAK and TEN). They had a great game vs. SD which is a good matchup and now have an even better matchup vs. MIA. I think they're as good as I can predict for a matchup team. But going forward they again will struggle against DET and OAK and NYJ. Only KC and SD look favorable going forward for the rest of the season so I don't know if they'll be a great defense the rest of the way. Meanwhile, DET has the lovely CAR, NO, MIN and SD matchups to look forward to this season. Some tough games no doubt vs. CHI, GB and OAK but still they look like the better defense to have through most of the rest of the season.

Regardless, I think you're fine for this week but if you have someone you'll never start this year anyway, you could try to get Det back.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby Mr.Joshua » Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:10 pm

fyi...looks like Haden will play
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:57 am

Mr.Joshua wrote:fyi...looks like Haden will play


So that means play the Browns over Chicago? It worries me playing the matchup over the better DST....
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby Mr.Joshua » Sun Oct 23, 2011 8:47 am

I dont know if there is a clear cut winner between those 2 D's, but I feel good going with Clev.....at home, Seattle is alot worse on the road, Whitehearst starting and Haden back.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Oct 23, 2011 9:34 am

Yeah, I just have this feeling that Whitehurst is going to throw 5 yard passes all game long or run the ball. I cant make up my mind...
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:19 am

Yahoo Predictions:
1) BAL - TBD
2) DAL - 9
3) GB -6
4) PIT-7
5) NO-17
6) CHI-10
7) DET-7
8) NYJ-6
9) SD-12
10) CLE-14

My predictions:
1) BAL - TBD
2) DAL - 9
3) DEN - 7
4) NYJ - 6
5) CLE - 14
6) WAS - 3
7) DET - 7
8) GB - 6
9) STL - 3
10) PIT - 7

Yahoo slamdunks the analyzer! Yahoo had all 9/9 above average calls and had 4 of 9 teams with breakout games predicted while I had 7/9 above average but only 1/9 of the break out games. UGH!

We both missed KC' 35 points off of 6 turnovers from the OAK QBs, 2 returned for TDs and shutout bonus. Not exactly a bandwagon I would jump on. Also missed SEA' 14 points. Only 1 TO but 5 sacks and held CLE to 6 points. We both called Cleveland correctly and they had 2 to and 3 sacks and held to 3 points. Both missed MIA's 10 point outing with 7 sacks and a turnover off of Tebow and Carolina's 10 point outing with 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against newbie John Beck. Also missed was Hou with 2 sacks 2 picks and a defensive TD vs. TEN. 5 of the 9 break out teams had a defensive TD.

The obvious that we should have emphasized is that a new QB may be worth starting a defense against for the potential of a break out day. OAK, WAS, SEA, MIN, DEN all started new QBs and all but MIN gave up a breakout day to their opponents.

Anyway, I guess that's football. The analyzer works well with normal conditions but I think that there's obviously something to be said for using common sense and taking advantage of unique situations like the whole OAK QB situation.

I had also worried about Cam Newton facing a number 3 ranked pass defense in WAS but he had a superb day with 256 through the air, 59 on the ground and a pass and a rushing score. (Glad I didn't replace judgment with a bunch of statistics) ;-D
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby Team Gooch » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:06 pm

Thanks for all the hard work prince.

Im trying to get a jump on week 8.

the best available in my league

Tenn vs Indy
Cinn @ Sea
SD @ KC
Hou vs Jax
Buf vs Wash
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:01 pm

I have to admit, I've tried to pick kickers based on which team scores the most points and which team gives up the most points. I dunno, I read somewhere that the best kickers are on the teams that score the most points from one season to the next and so you may as well get the kicker on a team like NE or something. However, NE's kicker is pretty low on this year's list of all kickers; 16th out of 32 teams (NE is the overall scoring leader this year). It's all those durn TDs ain't it!

So I've been doing a little statistical analysis and it's been so grim and unhappy that I thought I'd share it with all of you :)

The figure below shows for week 5 (week 6 looks worse) with the Y-axis being the kicker's output for the day. The X-axis is the combined points the offense the kicker was on has scored for the year with the defense's points allowed. Correlation (the R-squared) ranges from 0 no correlation to 1.0 (perfect correlation). My TD and Sacks has a roughly 0.72 correlation with points scored. However, points sum here has only a 0.02 correlatoin. Pretty damn terrible if you ask me!
Image

So I figured it's the damn TDs, eh? Teams that can get the ball across the line(NE) will do worse on FG kicking. The figure below again has kicking on the Y-axis and on the x-axis is the kicker's teams TDs per game plus the defending team's TDs per game. Correlation of 0.0043. $#%^%!!!!
Image

Now my dander is just up. Surely there is something that can predict a good kicking week! Yards per game? Correlation of 0.0081. $#@%#!!!
Image

ZOMG! Does nothing predict a good kicking week across the NFL?! Is it really that much of a turkey shoot every week?!

(Prince starts screwing around with redzone and field goals allowed and combined statistics)

After much toil and trouble: The figure below shows kicking points on the Y-axis and the kicker's teams red zone ATTEMPTS per game and the defending teams red zones allowed per game (where do I find these things?). Correlation is up to 0.115. Okay, it's obviously not as good as sacks and turnovers is at 0.72 but looking at it, it's not unpleasing to the eye. Basically if you have more redzone attempts per game plus your opponent allows more redzone attempts per game, you end up with a trend towards a higher score. There's a few outliers in there and if we remove those, it might get prettier :)
Image

Teams allow between 2.2 (BAL) to 5.1 (TB) Redzone attempts per game and Get between 1.2 (JAC) to 5.1 (NO) Redzone attempts per game. Overall, have a good kicker, stick with them. Your guess is as good as mine. If you must pug, find a matchup where there's going to be a lot of red zone attempts and take them.

(How do I get those 3 hours of my life back?)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:37 pm

Team Gooch wrote:Thanks for all the hard work prince.

Im trying to get a jump on week 8.

the best available in my league

Tenn vs Indy
Cinn @ Sea
SD @ KC
Hou vs Jax
Buf vs Wash


Waiting on tonight's game before I run the numbers. It's enough work that I like to just do it the one time. But I'm thinking HOU vs. JAC looks like your best bet of those.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby audioOtis » Tue Oct 25, 2011 8:58 am

Could you post a link to the yahoo point projections? I am unable to find it...

thanks!
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