I have to admit, I've tried to pick kickers based on which team scores the most points and which team gives up the most points. I dunno, I read somewhere that the best kickers are on the teams that score the most points from one season to the next and so you may as well get the kicker on a team like NE or something. However, NE's kicker is pretty low on this year's list of all kickers; 16th out of 32 teams (NE is the overall scoring leader this year). It's all those durn TDs ain't it!
So I've been doing a little statistical analysis and it's been so grim and unhappy that I thought I'd share it with all of you
The figure below shows for week 5 (week 6 looks worse) with the Y-axis being the kicker's output for the day. The X-axis is the combined points the offense the kicker was on has scored for the year with the defense's points allowed. Correlation (the R-squared) ranges from 0 no correlation to 1.0 (perfect correlation). My TD and Sacks has a roughly 0.72 correlation with points scored. However, points sum here has only a 0.02 correlatoin. Pretty damn terrible if you ask me!
So I figured it's the damn TDs, eh? Teams that can get the ball across the line(NE) will do worse on FG kicking. The figure below again has kicking on the Y-axis and on the x-axis is the kicker's teams TDs per game plus the defending team's TDs per game. Correlation of 0.0043. $#%^%!!!!
Now my dander is just up. Surely there is something that can predict a good kicking week! Yards per game? Correlation of 0.0081. $#@%#!!!
ZOMG! Does nothing predict a good kicking week across the NFL?! Is it really that much of a turkey shoot every week?!
(Prince starts screwing around with redzone and field goals allowed and combined statistics)
After much toil and trouble: The figure below shows kicking points on the Y-axis and the kicker's teams red zone ATTEMPTS per game and the defending teams red zones allowed per game (where do I find these things?). Correlation is up to 0.115. Okay, it's obviously not as good as sacks and turnovers is at 0.72 but looking at it, it's not unpleasing to the eye. Basically if you have more redzone attempts per game plus your opponent allows more redzone attempts per game, you end up with a trend towards a higher score. There's a few outliers in there and if we remove those, it might get prettier
Teams allow between 2.2 (BAL) to 5.1 (TB) Redzone attempts per game and Get between 1.2 (JAC) to 5.1 (NO) Redzone attempts per game. Overall, have a good kicker, stick with them. Your guess is as good as mine. If you must pug, find a matchup where there's going to be a lot of red zone attempts and take them.
(How do I get those 3 hours of my life back?)