Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=504373
Checking out a number of different defense rankings, so far I haven't found one better than my own analysis except for the yahoo ranking which ranks by the opinion of four different experts plus yahoo players overall ranking. It's an interesting system and while my analyzer does as good a job on most weeks, last week was the first that they really beat the stats and I think it's largely a reflection of so many new quarterbacks in the NFL last week. So, I do recommend checking them out as well.
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.
I've previously said that NYJ, BAL and GB are teams that should probably be started every week regardless of matchup. I've also been impressed with NYG, DET, SF and CHI and think they may be good starts regardless of matchup as well. The BYE teams are still listed. The bye 'score' btw, is just the alphabetically best fit for the computer so please ignore it.
A few caveats here. DAL vs. PHI is based on a high turnover rate by Vick and company which may not necessarily prove true every week. Feast of famine. I also am beginning to wonder if Cam Newton has figured out how to hold onto the ball and nnot sure if MIN vs. CAR should be ranked as high as it is. NO vs. STL didn't make it as far up as I would have hoped and I do wonder if that would make Yahoo's top 10. Otherwise, I feel pretty comfortable with the top 10 listed.
PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:
The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.
Each line shows my rank, the team, the NFL's rank, the average score they are yielding opposing passers, and the toughness of their schedule so far this year. For example, the NYJ are my number 1 passing defense, they are the NFL's number 7 ranked defense. They are yielding opponents only 8.2 points per game on average and have faced the 8th toughest schedule so far.
You should also note that this is passing only and if your qb has good legs, look also at the rushing rankings.
You should also note that this doesn't take into account their opponent that week.
Washington dropped significantly in the NFL ranks after giving up 250 to Cam Newton but on my ranking they remain at 3rd as DET also slipped in their numbers and TDs. I still feel that the Jets are the number one passing defense with BAL right behind. PIT is the number 1 ranked defense facing against a rested Brady and company. But if you look at PIT's toughness so far, they've faced one of the easiest schedules from a passing output stage. BAL, SEA, IND, HOU, TEN, JAC, ARI. Schaub and Flacco are probably A- grade QBs but a lot of C grade qbs so far.
Basically, the top 10 and bottom 10 defenses are likely to remain the same the rest of the season but a few blowups may move things around.
The difference between playing the NYJ vs. IND btw, is nearly 13 points!
Tebow should have an interesting time against DET who I think is smarting after a few tough losses. But should have a much easier time vs. OAK and KC before hitting the NYJ and SD. Ends with CHI, NE and BUF all of which are bottom half passing defenses. He also has legs of course.
Cam Newton excelled against a quality passing defense (WAS). I'd say that gives him the stud mantle in my book and he's a must start no matter the defense. He faces a bottom tier MIN passing defense and those of us who own him and/or S. Smith have to hope for one of those lovely 400+yard days to save us from bye week hell.
Based on 1 per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.
For example SF is my number 1 rushing defense, ranked 11th by NFL, giving up an average of only 6.1 ppg to opposing rushers but with the 4th easiest schedule this year.
More movement here than in the passig logs. TEN fell out of the top 10 and I think deservedly so. NE was on bye and fell out of the top 10 as JAC moved up and MIA dropped down.
SF had a bye and so was unlikely to move. They remain the only team in the NFL to have not allowed a rushing TD all year. I remember when TB did this a few years ago and then Michael Turner opened up 4 rushing TDs on them in one game. This streak has to end at some point but it's hard to tell when.
Houston climbed into the top 10 this week after holding Chris Johnson to 18 yards rushing and no scores. Jacksonville also cracked into the top 10 from way back at 22nd after holding Ray Rice to only 28 yards rushing. JAC's play last night was a shocker to me and they are now ranked as top 10 defenses in rushing and passing by me and the NFL. And although the stats say they are yielding 13.5 ppg to opposing rushers, of late, they have really been a much harder defense to rush against.
I had said a few weeks ago that Rivers to VJax looked great this year. They've had a lot of bottom 10 passing defenses to start the year and other than last week vs, the NYJ, they are about to go on another nice long string of bottom 10 passing defenses. KC, GB, OAK, CHI, DEN, JAC, BUF. Most of those are bottom half defenses except for JAC. Playoff weeks look rougher for them though. BAL, DET are 2 and 4 on passing defense. Final week (week 16 in my league) is lovely Oakland however. They'll get you there, but not sure if they'll finish the season for you.
DeMarcus Murray gets to feast on a PHI rushing defense that has yielded an average of 18 ppg to opposing rushers. Two solid weeks may have him pushing Jones off the lead position in the depth chart. And then he gets SEA, BUF, WAS. BUF and WAS are both bottom 10 defenses and SEA is the only top half defense he faces. MIA is 13th and falling on the rushing defense ladder followed by ARI, NYG which are both bottom 10 defenses and closes out with TB (21) and PHI bottom 10. That's a whole lot of bottom 10 defenses and he joins their team having destroyed STL and likely to have a very solid game vs. PHI. If things work out, primarily through matchup, Murray could end up being a monster this year and a starting RB on a good team.
Thinking about getting Torain? He has a nice matchup vs. BUF this week. But beware, he follows that with SF, MIA, DAL, SEA. All top half defenses with SF and DAL being 1 and 3. NYJ should be a little easier time but then NE, NYG, MIN to close out the season. Only NYG are in the bottom 10 for defenses. Okay for a filler but I wouldn't rest your championship on Torain unless he proves to be a monster.
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Please do not replace common sense and good judgment with a bunch of statistics.
Last edited by prince_45243 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.