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Defense Analyzer - Week 9

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:03 am

Thanks for posting the Yahoo rankings.

Taking it all together:
YAHOO AND ANALYZER: SF, GB, ATL, HOU, DAL, BAL, KC
ONLY YAHOO: OAK, PHI, PIT
ONLY ANALYZER: ARI, CIN, NYJ
If I could swap out one of mine for Yahoo, I would put PIT into CIN slot.

Details:
OAK faces DEN this week and are bringing Carson Palmer and a probable lack of DMC against Tebow and company. Nothing wrong with that call, just surprised it's number 2 on their list as I'd normally rate that a midling matchup. PHI is facing CHI and I think that's an okay call. Looking at the points given up, CHI has given above average points to defenses on 5 of 7 games they've played although only two games over 10 points early in the year. I can't see anything particularly high yield about that matchup. PIT faces BAL and has definitely been an improved defense over early in the year. In the past two weeks, BAL has given up 12 and 11 points and have given break out games of 10+ points 4 of 7 games. I like that call a lot actually and think it has a good chance of paying off.

I listed ARI vs. STL based primarily on the fact that the lowest output they've given a defense this year is 9 points with all others being over 10 point games as formerly pointed out. I also include the Jets as one of my stud defenses that I would never sit but with the caveat that BUF has yet to yield more than 7 points to any defense. Cincy faces TEN and are on the list primarily for their being a strong defense. It doesn't appear that TEN has given up more than one game over 7 points all year, however and I think I'd be pretty comfortable just replacing them with PIT.

Good luck,
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:19 pm

Okay Im having trouble deciding between playing KC or Oakland.

KC plays Miami
Oakland plays Denver

Im leaning towards Oakland. What do you guys think?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby Drift Monkey » Thu Nov 03, 2011 4:23 pm

latsprewell20002000 wrote:Okay Im having trouble deciding between playing KC or Oakland.

KC plays Miami
Oakland plays Denver

Im leaning towards Oakland. What do you guys think?

Was stuck between Dallas and Oakland myself.

I'm going Oakland.
Week 13

QB - Tim Tebow
WR - Hakeem Nicks
WR - Dez Bryant
RB - Ray Rice
RB - Ryan Mathews
TE - Jermichael Finley
W/R/T - Vincent Jackson
BN - Tony Romo
BN - Julio Jones
BN - Roy Helu
BN - Ben Tate
BN - Kevin Smith
K - Mason Crosby
D - Houston
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:12 am

Itchy wrote:Please give your opinions. I have 3 defenses and don't want to drop any of them, but looks like I might have to. I'm not a sure thing for playoffs, but it's looking good-I'm 7-1. Our playoffs are weeks 15 & 16. Here's the defenses and upcoming opponents:

DEFENSE 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

GB SD MIN TB DET NYG OAK KC CHI
NYG NE SF PHI NO GB Dal WAS NYJ
PHI CHI ARI NYG NE SEA MIA NYJ DAL

My dilemma is that I think GB is the best defense of the 3, but seems to have a tougher schedule. I looks to me PHI has the best schedule toward the end. I was hoping to keep all 3 and play depending on matchups. I could drop a WR if needed-but that'll leave me pretty weak in that dept - although my WR's aren't all that great anyway. Thoughts?


Wow that's a tough one to analyze. Let's assume you keep two of those. GB, after SD, has only one team that gives up 8 ppg on average: MIN (6.3), TB (7.1), DET (3.9), NYG (6.7), OAK 8.3), KC, 8.1 and CHI 7.0.

However, NYG don't have a good schedule ahead until week 14: NYG NE (4.7), SF (5.7), PHI (7.6), NO (6), GB (4), DAL (9.3), WAS (10), NYJ (10)

While PHI has the most favorable schedule early and late: PHI: CHI (7), ARI (8.6), NYG (6.7), NE (4.7), SEA (13), MIA (10.3), NYJ (10), DAL (9.3)

PHI has a sack/to rating of 7.9, GB has a 9.9 rating and NYG have 8.9. GB is the superior defense, NYG are very good and PHI is beneath both of those.

The statistics suggest you should keep GB and NYG and just start NYG vs. NO and the rest stay with GB. If you're more of a gambler, you keep GB and PHI and start PHI vs. teams like CHI, ARI, SEA, and MIA all of which by odds alone are giving up tons of points. Then back to GB for your playoffs with their very favorable matchups.

(Stop asking such hard questions it takes me days to figure out....grrrrrrr....)
Last edited by prince_45243 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:26 am

Drift Monkey wrote:
latsprewell20002000 wrote:Okay Im having trouble deciding between playing KC or Oakland.

KC plays Miami
Oakland plays Denver

Im leaning towards Oakland. What do you guys think?

Was stuck between Dallas and Oakland myself.

I'm going Oakland.


I kinda like KC here. Tebow is a likely turnover machine, Matt Moore is a money back guarantee? And KC has been playing inspired ball for weeks now with 8 picks in two weeks. That flowers guy ruined VJax day and will likely ruin Miami's. Both Yahoo and my analyzer picked KC as a top 10 pick. From sacks and turnovers, MIA is the best matchup in the league with an average of 8.1 ppg from sacks and turnovers alone. That's better than seattle (7.4) or DEN (6.6). It's close but for me, I think I'd tip to KC.

For DAL v. SEA and OAK v. DEN, I would probably call that a toss-up. If you like OAK, that seems fine to me. DAL vs. SEA is a nice start though :)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby Itchy » Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:40 pm

(Stop asking such hard questions it takes me days to figure out....grrrrrrr....)


LOL---thanks for the great thoughtout reply!!

One more question please.....

I decided to drop Phi but now I see Det has been dropped-would you try to grab them off waiver, or just stay put with GB and NYG (I'd need to drop one of these 2 to get Det).

Here's Det remainder..starting wk 10-Chi, Car, GB, NO, MIN, Oak, SD
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Sat Nov 05, 2011 12:35 pm

Itchy wrote:(Stop asking such hard questions it takes me days to figure out....grrrrrrr....)


LOL---thanks for the great thoughtout reply!!

One more question please.....

I decided to drop Phi but now I see Det has been dropped-would you try to grab them off waiver, or just stay put with GB and NYG (I'd need to drop one of these 2 to get Det).

Here's Det remainder..starting wk 10-Chi, Car, GB, NO, MIN, Oak, SD

I don't think you should. DET is a great defense to have but the matchup on GB's off week is against GB and not sure you'd have started them then. You could start them vs. CAR but it doesn't give you many options otherwise.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby Itchy » Sat Nov 05, 2011 6:58 pm

Thanks again! I look forward to your defense analyzing every week.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby dzsman » Sat Nov 05, 2011 8:21 pm

[quote="latsprewell20002000"]Okay Im having trouble deciding between playing KC or Oakland.

KC plays Miami
Oakland plays Denver

Im leaning towards Oakland. What do you guys think?[/quote]


Spree- I am facing the same decision.

I haven't hear it stated but it cannot be overlooked that KC just played a very emotional game vs a division rival on MNF- and though they are at home they are still playing a team desparate for their first win. For Miami's woes, they still looked motivated last week in their close loss to the NYG- and that too was a daunting road matchup for MIA. Granted KC could go up big early- get the crowd behing them- and put on the clamps on Miami's offense- but this may just as easily be a trap game and a struggle for KC. Oakland's defense is not world beaters- and they likely won't generate the pass rush vs Tebow the Lions did- but it is a home game, a division rivalry, and OAK are coming off a bye week- and all those factors will help their focus. A coin flip really, but I am leaning towards Oakland as well- especially because the lack of stability with Denver's QB situation.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 8:07 am

Thanks for the help guys. Yeah lol I cant make up my mind. KC, Oakland, KC, Oakland. I think I will probably go with Oakland. Tebow is the worst QB in the history of the league. Ill take my chances against that. I realize that Matt Moore is a close second. At least Miami has some weapons, Marshall, Bush, Thomas... Denver has almost zero, oh I forgot McGahee??...
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