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Defense Analyzer - Week 9

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:46 pm

Okay, I have officially learned my lesson. I figured I would try my hand at this playing the matchup thing. I just cant seem to get it right. The first 5-6 weeks I just played Chicago despite the matchup and I did fairly good. Then the last two weeks I tried playing the matchups.

Last week I didnt have a choice cause Chicago was on a bye, however it didnt end up working out.

Then this week I figured I could not miss playing Oakland against Tebow. I was seriously wrong. Oakland got lit up by him... And scored a whopping 4 points for the DST...

From now on Im playing the better DST over the better matchup. Chicago it is for me from here on out. I dont care if they play the Pack.

One saving grace is that I had McGahee going against them so some of the damage was mitigated by me scoring on the raping they did to Oakland.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby Drift Monkey » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:14 am

latsprewell20002000 wrote:Okay, I have officially learned my lesson. I figured I would try my hand at this playing the matchup thing. I just cant seem to get it right. The first 5-6 weeks I just played Chicago despite the matchup and I did fairly good. Then the last two weeks I tried playing the matchups.

Last week I didnt have a choice cause Chicago was on a bye, however it didnt end up working out.

Then this week I figured I could not miss playing Oakland against Tebow. I was seriously wrong. Oakland got lit up by him... And scored a whopping 4 points for the DST...

From now on Im playing the better DST over the better matchup. Chicago it is for me from here on out. I dont care if they play the Pack.

One saving grace is that I had McGahee going against them so some of the damage was mitigated by me scoring on the raping they did to Oakland.

At least you got that, I got -2 in my leauge. Playing by matchup works, it just kicked me in the face this time. Dallas would have been a better go.
Week 13

QB - Tim Tebow
WR - Hakeem Nicks
WR - Dez Bryant
RB - Ray Rice
RB - Ryan Mathews
TE - Jermichael Finley
W/R/T - Vincent Jackson
BN - Tony Romo
BN - Julio Jones
BN - Roy Helu
BN - Ben Tate
BN - Kevin Smith
K - Mason Crosby
D - Houston
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:04 am

10 teams had 10+ points and ARI had an above average 8 points.

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: SF (11), GB (16), ATL(13), HOU (12), DAL (11), BAL(6), KC(-1)
ONLY YAHOO: OAK (-2), PHI (TBD) , PIT (5)
ONLY ANALYZER: ARI (16), CIN (5), NYJ (10)

So the Analyzer's top 10 had 7/10 that had break out weeks of 10+ points. That's a record for the analyzer. And this was the first week that the analyzer legitimately beat out the Yahoo rankings having 7/10 above average games to Yahoo's 5/9 (even if PHI has an above average game, the analyzer would still win). Most notably, of teh teams that both the analyzer and Yahoo selected, 5/7 had break out games. It's noteworthy that ARI got bumped up in my rankings by looking at the matchup vs. STL.

MIA had a breakout game vs. KC which neither picked and I think was a bit of a shock (including KC's -1 vs. MIA which shocked me). NYG also had 11 points vs. NE which neither system predicted. I had said previously that NYJ, BAL, GB were probably worth the start every week and they had 10, 6 and 16 points. SF, NYG, DET, PIT were on my list of teams I would only sit for good reason and had 11, 11, bye and 5 points.

Overall for the season, it looks like the analyzer and Yahoo were pretty well matched.

latsprewell20002000 wrote:Okay, I have officially learned my lesson. I figured I would try my hand at this playing the matchup thing. I just cant seem to get it right. The first 5-6 weeks I just played Chicago despite the matchup and I did fairly good. Then the last two weeks I tried playing the matchups.


I agree that it's very luxurious having a reliable defense. I basically have a strong defense in one league and play matchup in the other league because I don't have one of those never sit or only sit for good reason defenses in that league. I'd note that I wouldn't have qualified CHI as that reliable of a defense myself. My metric is usually that they score very well against bad matchups and this year, they only had 2 vs. NO, 6, vs GB and 3 vs. DET. They had 17 vs. MIN on a safety and a return TD which is also hard to pick. But I know what you mean. Sometimes, I hate this stupid game!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby HotHandz305 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 3:15 pm

I reused the numbers in your first post and also some data from week 8(due to byes) to see what was the best team for week 15 and 16 out of GB, Cin, and Det.

For GB I used their defense # of 9.86, Cin I used their # of 11.14 and Det 12.38.

Then using the opponents numbers for each Detroit turnt out to be the best play for both week 15 and week 16 coming in at a total of 17.81 and 19.09 respectively though Cincinatti was a close 2nd on both weeks. Does it seem as though I did the numbers correctly and would you reccomend Detroit as the best play off defense for week 15 and 16 over the other two mentioned? I'm worried Detroit's 12.38 # is slightly skewed too much due to their big game vs Den.
Week 13 Roster
QB Tony Romo
WR1 Greg Jennings
WR2 Vincent Jax
RB1 Arian Foster
RB2 LeSean McCoy
TE Vernon Davis
Flex (W/R/T) Willis McGahee
K Billy Cundiff
DST GB
IDP Patrick Willis
BEN Roy Helu
BEN Fred Davis
BEN Stevie Johnson
BEN Pitt D/ST
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