Defense Analyzer - Week 10

[prince_45243]

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=506682

Last week's analysis:

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: SF (11), GB (16), ATL(13), HOU (12), DAL (11), BAL(6), KC(-1)
ONLY YAHOO: OAK (-2), PHI (9) , PIT (5)
ONLY ANALYZER: ARI (16), CIN (5), NYJ (10)

So the Analyzer's top 10 had 7/10 that had break out weeks of 10+ points. That's a record for the analyzer. And this was the first week that the analyzer legitimately beat out the Yahoo rankings having 7/10 above average games to Yahoo's 6/10 (even if PHI has an above average game, the analyzer would still win). Most notably, of teh teams that both the analyzer and Yahoo selected, 5/8 had break out games. It's noteworthy that ARI got bumped up in my rankings by looking at the matchup vs. STL.

MIA had a breakout game vs. KC which neither picked and I think was a bit of a shock (including KC's -1 vs. MIA which shocked me). NYG also had 11 points vs. NE which neither system predicted. I had said previously that NYJ, BAL, GB were probably worth the start every week and they had 10, 6 and 16 points. SF, NYG, DET, PIT were on my list of teams I would only sit for good reason and had 11, 11, bye and 5 points.

Overall for the season, it looks like the analyzer and Yahoo were pretty well matched. So onwards!

DEFENSE
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.



PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

Each line shows my rank, the team, the NFL's rank, the average score they are yielding opposing passers, and the toughness of their schedule so far this year. For example, the NYJ are my number 1 passing defense, they are the NFL's number 7 ranked defense. They are yielding opponents only 8.3 points per game on average and have faced the 20th toughest schedule so far.

You should also note that this is passing only and if your qb has good legs, look also at the rushing rankings.
You should also note that this doesn't take into account their opponent that week.

PASSING


It's interesting to note that most of the top 10 passing defenses have had fairly light schedules but JAC is ranked 8th by the NFL, 10th by m but has had the 3rd toughest schedule. Also interesting is taht the NYG are ranked 17th by the NFL but have only yielded 9 TD in 8 games and have 10 picks. That's just a hair over 1TD per game. Compare that to PHI who the NFL has ranked 9th. The Giants yield 238 ypg and the Eagles yield 211 ypg. But the Eagles have given up 14 TD and 8 picks in 8 games. ALthough yes, they have yielded 24 more yards per game, in fantasy terms, the TD and Picks difference is pretty big. SD is ranked 4th by the NFL for giving up only 191 ypg but they have yielded 15 TDs through the air with only 8 picks.

RUSHING:
Based on 1 per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.
For example SF is my number 1 rushing defense, ranked 11th by NFL, giving up an average of only 5.3 ppg to opposing rushers but with the easiest schedule this year.



MIA is probably under-rated by the NFL at 14th. While they are yielding 110 ypg they have only given up 3 rushing TDs all year long. SF continues to be the only team in the NFL that hasn't yielded a rushing TD now in 8 weeks (there's a typo on the sheet on nfl rank, sorry). GB is a beast! They've had the toughest schedule of the year for opponents faced from rushing power but are in the top 10 against the run in my and NFL's ranking.

DEFENSES
My definition of a 'stud' is that you play them no matter their matchup. Arian Foster you'd start even if they were facing the best rushing defense in the league. Same with AP. Well the same can probably be said of defenses too. I considered NYJ, BAL and GB to be fantasy studs and SF, DET, NYG, and PIT to be 'need a good reason to sit' around week 4 of this season.

But why not use some data?

The figure above shows the defensive output by team by week. Remember each team has a bye as well.

BAL and SF are actually tied on the average number of points yielded and if you lok at SF, they had only one game of 5 points or less. SF is a STUD. BAL is studly but they did have 3 games of 6 points or less out of eight.
The JETS, DET and GB did end up rounding out the top 5 but not on my list of 'studly' is CIN. Looking at their production, they have had 4/8 games with 6 points or less but also 4/8 games with 10+ points or break out games. BUF is really hit or miss eh? Two goose eggs and a 5 offset by a bunch of breakout games.

I had considered the giants to be 'studly' and if 6ppg or less is the league average, they have been above average nearly every week this season.

I had though tof GB as a stud and they really haven't had many 'bad games'. They had two weeks with only 6 points but otherwise have consistently been in the teens.

DET also fluctuates quite a bit with two 20+ point games and an 18 point game but a bunch of slightly above average games.

Thus, I think I'd put BAL, SF, NYJ, DET and GB into the 'stud or studly' category. No matter the matchup, they should probably be started. CIN, BUF, CHI, HOU and NYG are also very solid defenses but you might consider matchup with those.

It was pointed out last week that STL and IND have yielded a lot of points to opposing defenses.


The above figure shows the opponent and how many points they have yielded to the defenses.

STL is a great matchup every week. They have yet to yield a below average outing to a defense facing them and all but one week they have yielded break out games. SEA is also a great matchup nearly every week. Two games of below average but many games of break-out games. IND has not yielded a below average outing and has given out 10+ points every week but two. JAC has given 6/8 above average games as well. WAS has been particularly giving the last 4 weeks (Grossman's collapse) and break out weeks for four weeks in a row. SD has yielded a lot of turnovers this year (Rivers butter fingers). 5/8 games are break out games and only one below average game. The Jets are up there for really one bad game and a smattering of slightly above average games as a matchup.

I think it's also worth noting that CLE has yielded 5 straight break out games to defenses.

Interestingly enough IND plays JAC, CLE plays STL this week.None of those crack my top 10 as matchups. SEA plays BAL and that's already listed.

So my adjusted top 10 would be:
1) BAL
2) DET
3) NYJ
4) SF
5) BUF
6) GB
7) MIA plays WAS (4 straight 10+ point games given out).
8) JAC plays IND (5 out of last 6 weeks, 10+ games)
9) CLE plays STL (7/8 weeks of 10+ games)
10) STL plays CLE (giving up 10+ games in last 5)?

Let's see what Yahoo says

[robotninja]

2 point difference on your rankings. Whats the gut say?

Hou @ TB

Cin vs Pitt

WW is UGLY

[TitsMcGahee]

So I have Jets D vs. Patriots this week.

Should I add Washington @ Miami,
Miami vs. Washington
Jacksonville @ Indy
St. Louis @ Cle

I like Miami vs. Washington, is this a matchup worth adding and playing ahead of Jets matchup vs. Patriots??

[Drift Monkey]

My WW is wide open! Hou, Buf, Cin, Pit, Jax, Cle...which should I snag for next week/ROS?

[prince_45243]

2 point difference on your rankings. Whats the gut say?

Hou @ TB

Cin vs Pitt

WW is UGLY

That is really tough to call from a stats point of view. My gut is telling me Cincy but it's not what one would call a break out pick. Still, CIN has had some truly dominating defensive performances since week 3 with only 2/6 subaverage games. HOU has had 4/7 average/subaverage games, likely because the keep the ball out of opponents hands with offense. I guess Cincy.

So I have Jets D vs. Patriots this week.

Should I add Washington @ Miami,
Miami vs. Washington
Jacksonville @ Indy
St. Louis @ Cle

I like Miami vs. Washington, is this a matchup worth adding and playing ahead of Jets matchup vs. Patriots??

Jets are one of my never sit teams. In Week 6 they scored 23 DST points against the Patriots and 5/7 games this year have been 10+ points starting the jets. Those stats are better than anything I could predict otherwise. Of course, history doesn't always repeat itself but I haven't seen anything in NE since Week 6 that would make me sit the Jets this week.

But, if you have the heebie jeebies and just can't start your stud against a tough matchup, I think your next best bet is probably JAC. Indy has given up no below average games all year and 5/7 have been break out games. I also like MIA as a pick and something isn't working right in WAS the past several weeks but that one is lower on my list because so far, MIA has only had two games above 5 points all season. That's not exactly a monster defense. JAC has the more reliable matchup.

My WW is wide open! Hou, Buf, Cin, Pit, Jax, Cle...which should I snag for next week/ROS?

I think you're risk -reward analyzing now. CLE plays STL who has yet to yield a bad game to any defense in the league. 6/7 have gone for 10+ points. Even though CLE hasn't excelled as a defense, it's hard to ignore how nice a matchup STL has been all year long. It's 'risky' in that CLE has only had 3 above average games all year but they arguably have one of the toughest divisions to play in too. My gut there would say CLE.

[howard]

Interesting looking at your stats for points given up. Thanks for putting that together.

I am starting to think about defense for the playoffs. I have Buffalo as my main defense now. I just picked up the Giants because they play Washington in week 15. That seems to be one of the better match ups that week. Buffalo playing Miami ain't bad either. Any better match ups for week 15?

What about week 16? Big week since its the championship week. Hopefully I will still be in it. Buffalo v. Denver sounds pretty good. None of the teams that play Seattle, St Louis, Indianapolis, or Jacksonville are available in my league. Minnesota is available and they play Washington. Any thoughts?

[TitsMcGahee]

Dude, Thanks a lot man. I think I am most likely going with the Jets. I appreciate the response

[Min Oh]

Should I still start Jets D if I have Brady as a qb this week???

[prince_45243]

Interesting looking at your stats for points given up. Thanks for putting that together.

I am starting to think about defense for the playoffs. I have Buffalo as my main defense now. I just picked up the Giants because they play Washington in week 15. That seems to be one of the better match ups that week. Buffalo playing Miami ain't bad either. Any better match ups for week 15?

What about week 16? Big week since its the championship week. Hopefully I will still be in it. Buffalo v. Denver sounds pretty good. None of the teams that play Seattle, St Louis, Indianapolis, or Jacksonville are available in my league. Minnesota is available and they play Washington. Any thoughts?

Not sure how you'd want that displayed, just as the matchup or as a combination of the matchup plus the defenses average output or the matchup vs. the TO+S metric. I haven't figured out a weighting system yet that would incorporate the information from the TO+S which I still find has over 70% correlation with output and so far has about a 70% rate of predicting above average games through about 6 weeks of doing it. However, can't know how to incorporate the information about the team's matchups.

Should I still start Jets D if I have Brady as a qb this week???

You NEVER sit Brady. I don't care if you're opponent has Welker or you have the opponent's defense (unless you're playing me ) or they're playing the number one passing defense in the league (which he is!). It's always argue that no matter the statistics, no team faces a stud of that caliber enough to use the statistics to determine how they perform. Remember also that points against contribute very little to your score over sacks and turnovers and of course those lead to defensive scores and the others like safeties and return TDs are very difficult to pick. You have two studs, NYJ and Brady, I think you should start them both.

[prince_45243]

Yahoo rankings are out. For those following the thread, Yahoo and Analyzer have been pretty closely predicting well but Yahoo has clearly had a better week once or twice and the analyzer has had a better week once.

YAHOO:
1) BAL
2) PHI
3) GB
4) SF
5) DET
6) JAC
7) KC
8) HOU
9) NYJ
10) MIA

Analyzer:
1) BAL
2) DET
3) NYJ
4) SF
5) BUF
6) GB
7) MIA plays WAS (4 straight 10+ point games given out).
8) JAC plays IND (5 out of last 6 weeks, 10+ games)
9) CLE plays STL (7/8 weeks of 10+ games)
10) STL plays CLE (giving up 10+ games in last 5)

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: BAL, DET, NYJ, SF, GB, MIA, JAC
YAHOO ONLY: PHI, KC, HOU
ANALYZER ONLY: BUF, CLE, STL

7/10 were on both lists which is a good sign.
Yahoo picked PHI vs. ARI which I really like a lot. ARI's starter QB has a toe injury and they did awful vs. STL last week. I like that pick a lot.
KC plays DEN - However, KC had a cherry matchup vs. MIA last week and got -1 points as a defense. DEN was supposed to give up a lot of points and also gave their opponent -1 points. I'm not so sure I would have put them in my 'top 10' over other matchups. Yahoo also picked HOU vs. TB. This isn't a bad call either. HOU has had 5/9 games as break out games which is very nice. TB has only given out 10+ points twice this year with 5/8 games being 5 points or less. It's a bit more of a toss-up.

I picked BUF v. DAL - BUF has had 5/8 break out games of 10+ points but have also had two zero point outings this year. DAL has only given up 3 10+point games this year. BUF had a lot of turnovers earlier in the year which put them fairly high in the analyzer as they had 5/6 games to start with break out games as a result. Probably of the same level of call as Yahoo's HOU v. TB.

CLE and STL play each other. STL has given up a minimum of 9 points and 10+ points the rest of the season. As I said above, CLE is a risk as not having actually had many good games. CLE has given up 5 straight weeks of 10+ point games. Again, that's a matchup base that is probably unusual in that STL isn't exactly a powerhouse defense but they have had two nice weeks lately against NO and ARI.

Good luck!