Defense Analyzer - Week 10

[HotHandz305]

I'm torn between either starting GB or Det, tough decision.

[prince_45243]

I would lean towards DET vs. CHI. 6/8 games they have yielded 8+ points to other teams this year. MIN has only given up that many one time all season. GB and DET are of similar quality although I do like GB's consistency of defensive points more than DET's. Still DET is a solid defense and I think CHI having yielded so many above average games to defenses would tip me.

[Dublin1]

I love you work man.....tremendous stuff!

So, I could use some help this week. I have Cincinnati (vs. Pitts) or Dallas (vs. Buff) available. I am able to pick-up either TB, KC, JAC, or CLE. Any thoughts? I am leaning towards JAC.

[prince_45243]

I love you work man.....tremendous stuff!

So, I could use some help this week. I have Cincinnati (vs. Pitts) or Dallas (vs. Buff) available. I am able to pick-up either TB, KC, JAC, or CLE. Any thoughts? I am leaning towards JAC.

Thanks. System doesn't always work of course but it's been surprisingly fun to see that it works somewhat. In the past, I've never really looked at the 'success' rate or compared to other systems and I'm surprised that it's better than so many other free online rankings (other than Yahoo so far).

I like JAC of your choices the best too. IND has given up a lot of points to opposing defenses and there's no reason to suspect that this week will be different. JAC and CLE are comparable on the sacks/turnovers but I think JAC will suppress points (a minor but not wholly insignificant factor) compared to CLE better. CIN is a fine defense but PIT hasn't given up more than 7 points to an opposing defense since week 5 and that includes BAL as a defense. TB faces HOU and I think will have their hands full. KC has DEN and that's not an altogether 'bad' pick but KC did terrible vs. MIA (typically an awesome matchup) and DEN gave their matchup last week -1 points.

Good luck!

[FlipRansom]

I have the option of starting SF, Philly or DET. Which should I start?

[prince_45243]

I have the option of starting SF, Philly or DET. Which should I start?

SF has been a solid start all season with only one below average game despite matchups. I think they'd be a solid start again this week.

[saemick]

I have:
BUF
JAC
CLE
CIN

available... Kinda slim pickings. But of those, who do you like best?

[prince_45243]

I have:
BUF
JAC
CLE
CIN

available... Kinda slim pickings. But of those, who do you like best?

I guess I'll stick to prior statements with JAC vs. IND. IND has reliably given up plenty of defensive points and JAC has been able to shut down even potent offenses. CLE vs. STL seems more of a gamble as they haven't performed well as a defense all year. BUF vs. DAL isn't a bad pick either and DAL can give up plenty of points to a defense but it's hard to predict. I'd probably avoid CIN vs. PIT. Seems like PIT has been playing better of late.

Good luck

[prince_45243]

Some Monday Morning QBing. Still waiting on the GB vs. MIN game tonight of course.

YAHOO:
1) BAL:1
2) PHI: 14
3) GB
4) SF: 6
5) DET: 4
6) JAC-18
7) KC: 1
8) HOU: 16
9) NYJ:1
10) MIA: 11

Analyzer:
1) BAL: 1
2) DET: 4
3) NYJ: 1
4) SF: 6
5) BUF: -4
6) GB
7) MIA: 11
8) JAC: 18
9) CLE: 9
10) STL: 8

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: BAL 1, DET 4, NYJ 1, SF 6, GB, MIA 11, JAC 18
YAHOO ONLY: PHI 14, KC 1, HOU 16
ANALYZER ONLY: BUF -4, CLE 9, STL 8

A pretty solid 'win' for Yahoo but overall, both prediction systems performed abysmally this week. Both had 5/9 with above average points but Yahoo had 4/9 with break out games of 10+ points to the Analyzer's 2/9. Both systems failed to predict a few monstrous games in CHI (36 points), TEN (22 points), DAL (19 points), NE (18 points), OAK (11 points) and ARI (10 points). My never sits of BAL and NYJ had terrible 1 point days each. DET, SF and PIT all had somewhat below average games. I hope Robot started his bears because they looked awesome .

HOU vs. CIN, I guessed wrong with CIN. Jets, MIa, Jac, CLe: I guessed wrong with the Jets. JAC was the winner there. HOU, BUF and above called CLE the risk reward bet. Did fine and safe but not the payoff hoped. GB vs. DET I picked DET. I'm betting GB was the right pick now. TB, JAC, KC, CLE - I picked JAC which was the right one. SF, PHI, DET, I picked SF but PHI had 14 to SF's 6. BUF, JAC, CLE, CIN, I correctly picked JAC. Basically, you were better off getting to two teams and flipping a coin than listening to me this week

If you called Seattle beating Baltimore, you don't need this lousy thread. CHI trounced DET and NE trounced the jets which both systems missed. Dallas' stars aligned very nicely for a 44-7 thrashing of the bills. SD has now given out 6/9 games with 10+ points and only one below average game this season. Interesting stat there considering how high quality Rivers had been in prior seasons.

Anyway, a bit head down but going to press on. Btw, whoever first asked how accurate these projections are at the start of this season, good question. But I will say this, I don't know of any other prediction system that posts how well they do week to week and I know why, this level of honesty is painful!

[Drift Monkey]

Ended up picking up the Texans and starting 'em. Not bad.