Well you have to look at the rest of the match ups. If the others favor you, then yes, start Stafford and neutralize megaton. If not, you need to go Manning.
My thinking on this is that if you have the advantage everywhere else, you neutralize the stud who could go huge and beat you, gambling that your advantage elsewhere will equal a win. If you don't have an advantage, you need to start Manning.viewtopic.php?t=507731