joejlitz wrote:I don't know, everyone. You are all saying to play White, because he has more talent, opportunity, etc. Maybe I'm wrong, but the guy has been a relative dud all year. Playing White to get another 62-76 yards receiving doesn't seem worth the potential upside of a Vincent Brown or Damian Williams who have have hot hands.
Would you be willing to do a Paper bag challenge- I'll take White, and you can get Brown or Williams and highest fantasy point total will win?
joejlitz wrote:I don't know, everyone. You are all saying to play White, because he has more talent, opportunity, etc. Maybe I'm wrong, but the guy has been a relative dud all year. Playing White to get another 62-76 yards receiving doesn't seem worth the potential upside of a Vincent Brown or Damian Williams who have have hot hands.
Would you be willing to do a Paper bag challenge- I'll take White, and you can get Brown or Williams and highest fantasy point total will win?
You bet!
If I had to pick one, I'd go with Brown. But isn't it your contention that White is the best option of the 3?
"There is no charge for awesomeness or attractiveness." - Po (Kung Fu Panda)
joejlitz wrote:I don't know, everyone. You are all saying to play White, because he has more talent, opportunity, etc. Maybe I'm wrong, but the guy has been a relative dud all year. Playing White to get another 62-76 yards receiving doesn't seem worth the potential upside of a Vincent Brown or Damian Williams who have have hot hands.
Would you be willing to do a Paper bag challenge- I'll take White, and you can get Brown or Williams and highest fantasy point total will win?
You bet!
If I had to pick one, I'd go with Brown. But isn't it your contention that White is the best option of the 3?
lol OK i'll give you both to make it a fair challenge. But my point in asking you to pick one is that if you feel like the odds are slanted in my favor when you only pick one, then you should roll with White. we can go with your rules to make it easy. 25 yards gets a point, no partial pts, and 3 pts per TD (which is kinda weird... whats up w/ a TD being = to 3?)
Dolfan19 wrote: Would you be willing to do a Paper bag challenge- I'll take White, and you can get Brown or Williams and highest fantasy point total will win?
You bet!
If I had to pick one, I'd go with Brown. But isn't it your contention that White is the best option of the 3?
lol OK i'll give you both to make it a fair challenge. But my point in asking you to pick one is that if you feel like the odds are slanted in my favor when you only pick one, then you should roll with White. we can go with your rules to make it easy. 25 yards gets a point, no partial pts, and 3 pts per TD (which is kinda weird... whats up w/ a TD being = to 3?)
I know - crazy scoring. League has been in existence for 10 years or so - before all these websites popped up and standard stuff started becoming the norm. We just kept the same scoring over the years.
As for my actual lineup this week - I'm going against a 7-2 team and don't really have the firepower to win with mediocre performances, so I'm trying to find the guy that will explode this week. That's why another 65 yard week from White won't cut it. That's only 2 points. I need 80 and a TD or 100 and a TD for 6 or 8 points (1 bonus point when you get to 100 yards).
Incidentally, a winning week is typically 47 points. A great week is 55.
Anyway - we got a bet. If you lose you wear the Falcons paper bag and I'll wear the Chargers if I lose?
"There is no charge for awesomeness or attractiveness." - Po (Kung Fu Panda)
joejlitz wrote:Incidentally, a winning week is typically 47 points. A great week is 55.
joejlitz wrote:Anyway - we got a bet. If you lose you wear the Falcons paper bag and I'll wear the Chargers if I lose?
Yup, and speaking of bets, I killed it this thursday. I had broncos +6, 1st half under 20, broncos 1st half ml, first entrance to redzone rushing +145, Dustin Keller over 3.5 receptions, and Alternate line Under 30.5 pts +300. finished up 5-0-1 with hitting my +300 bet, and i'm looking to extend that hot streak this weekend. didn't we used to have a forum in here to post picks, or did i just forget where it is? you got anything good for this weekend? I'm thinking Pats, Raiders, Panthers, and am starting to like the under in that bengals ravens game. two running teams, both with good defenses, and AJ Green is out.
Dolfan19 wrote:Yup, and speaking of bets, I killed it this thursday. I had broncos +6, 1st half under 20, broncos 1st half ml, first entrance to redzone rushing +145, Dustin Keller over 3.5 receptions, and Alternate line Under 30.5 pts +300. finished up 5-0-1 with hitting my +300 bet, and i'm looking to extend that hot streak this weekend.
Holy cow that is some intense betting? Do you think all these things through or do you just get a "feel?"
Dolfan19 wrote:didn't we used to have a forum in here to post picks, or did i just forget where it is? you got anything good for this weekend?
Yeah - there used to be a forum and last year I wrote a weekly column and finished about .500. Superbowl prop bets put me over the top last year, but this year I absolutely suck.
I've resorted the last 2 weeks to just going opposite Mike Greenberg (from Mike and Mike)
Greeny is 6-14 on the year and something like 17-34 over the last 2, so I'm just gonna stop thinking and do the opposite of what he does. This week, that means taking TB and ATL (the website says Greeny likes TEN, but it is wrong - I watched the show yesterday).
"There is no charge for awesomeness or attractiveness." - Po (Kung Fu Panda)
joejlitz wrote:Holy cow that is some intense betting? Do you think all these things through or do you just get a "feel?"
Haha yeah, I usually don't go all out on a game like that, but I guess I just kept finding bets I liked. I just started betting games last year, so I'm not a pro picker by any means. I mean I get a feel, and then I try and think it through and look at the stats before I make the bet. Like for the props I looked at the passing rushing yardage totals for the broncos since they started the option offense, and the jets, and I figured the total rushing/passing yards would be about equal, so first play to enter redzone should be a coinflip, and +145 was good value. and jets had some receiver injuries and I figured with champ baily covering holmes, there would be a lot of reception opportunities for plax and DK, so he was a good bet to go over 3.5.
joejlitz wrote:Yeah - there used to be a forum and last year I wrote a weekly column and finished about .500. Superbowl prop bets put me over the top last year, but this year I absolutely suck.
Yeah same thing happened with me. first year in the game, and i pretty much learned to stay away from teasers. this year on picks i'm right around .500, but I've been nailing most of my props and doing good on the random other sport bet.
joejlitz wrote:I've resorted the last 2 weeks to just going opposite Mike Greenberg (from Mike and Mike) Greeny is 6-14 on the year and something like 17-34 over the last 2, so I'm just gonna stop thinking and do the opposite of what he does. This week, that means taking TB and ATL (the website says Greeny likes TEN, but it is wrong - I watched the show yesterday).
lmao that looks like a good strategy... feel like TB is the right play, but i don't think i have the nerve to pull the trigger, especially after I picked them last week as 4 point home dogs and they managed to lose by 28. and I'm confused about ATL- if website is wrong and you are fading him, wouldn't the pick then be TEN? i was leaning TEN on this one. CJ has shown some signs of life the past couple of weeks after reports coming out about his job being in danger...
Dolfan19 wrote:lmao that looks like a good strategy... feel like TB is the right play, but i don't think i have the nerve to pull the trigger, especially after I picked them last week as 4 point home dogs and they managed to lose by 28. and I'm confused about ATL- if website is wrong and you are fading him, wouldn't the pick then be TEN? i was leaning TEN on this one. CJ has shown some signs of life the past couple of weeks after reports coming out about his job being in danger...
I'm confusing myself. On the TV show, he said he likes TEN and did a whole 20 seconds on why. So I am picking ATL.
For some reason the website says he like ATL, but I think that is an error. I don't think he changed his mind, because he is going against Golic on this game and that means Golic would have had to have switched sides, also - and Golic did 20 seconds on why he liked ATL.
Incidentally, Golic is 11-6-3 this year. He also like DAL this week.
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by Dolfan19 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:23 am 
