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Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

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Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby mattb47 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:28 am

Quarterbacks:

Top 10 Projected Scorers:

1. Cam Newton vs. Indianapolis
2. Matthew Stafford vs. Green Bay
3. Tom Brady vs. Philadelphia
4. Aaron Rodgers vs. Detroit
5. Drew Brees vs. New York Giants
6. Tony Romo vs. Miami
7. Eli Manning vs. New Orleans
8. Michael Vick vs. New England
9. Tim Tebow vs. San Diego
10. Philip Rivers vs. Denver

5 Worst Plays:

32. Blaine Gabbert vs. Houston
31. Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky vs. Carolina
30. Tarvaris Jackson vs. Washington
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. New York Jets
28. Tyler Palko vs. Pittsburgh

Other Notable Rankings:

12. Matt Ryan vs. Minnesota
16. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kansas City
25. Carson Palmer vs. Chicago

Running Backs:

Top 10 Projected Scorers:

1. Arian Foster vs. Jacksonville
2. Mark Ingram/Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas vs. New York Giants
3. Michael Bush vs. Chicago
4. Michael Turner vs. Minnesota
5. LeSean McCoy vs. New England
6. Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs vs. New Orleans
7. Ryan Mathews/Mike Tolbert vs. Denver
8. Shonn Greene vs. Buffalo
9. BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. Philadelphia
10. LaGarrette Blount vs. Tennessee

Worst 5 Plays (Among RB1s)

32. Roy Helu/Torain/Choice vs. Seattle
31. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Houston
30. DeMarco Murray vs. Miami
29. Chris Ogbannaya vs. Cincinnati
28. Ray Rice vs. San Francisco

Other Notable Rankings:

13. Fred Jackson vs. New York Jets
14. Matt Forte vs. Oakland
16. Frank Gore vs. Baltimore
27. Marshawn Lynch vs. Washington

Interesting names down there near the bottom this week. Tough matchups for guys like MJD, Murray, and Rice. Miami is actually the 2nd toughest RB matchup so far this season, San Francisco is the toughest, and Houston is the 3rd toughest so could be rough for those guys but they're likely talented enough to have solid production anyway. (That's what I'm hoping at least as the owner of Rice/MJD in one league...)

Wide Receivers:

Top 10 Projected Scorers:

1. Calvin Johnson vs. Green Bay (#1 by A LOT in these projections)
2. Steve Smith vs. Indianapolis
3. Mike Wallace vs. Kansas City
4. Dez Bryant vs. Miami
5. Brandon Lloyd vs. Arizona
6. Larry Fitzgerald vs. St. Louis
7. Greg Jennings vs. Detroit
8. Hakeem Nicks vs. New Orleans
9. Wes Welker vs. Philadelphia
10. Vincent Jackson vs. Denver

5 Worst Plays (Among WR1s)

32. Reggie Wayne vs. Carolina
31. Mike Thomas vs. Houston
30. Mike Williams vs. Tennessee
29. Stevie Johnson vs. New York Jets
28. Michael Crabtree vs. Baltimore

Other Notable Rankings:

20. Marques Colston vs. New York Giants
22. Andre Johnson vs. Jacksonville
23. Roddy White vs. Minnesota

Tight Ends:

Top 10 Projected Scorers:

1. Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez vs. Philadelphia
2. Brandon Pettigrew vs. Green Bay
3. Tony Gonzalez vs. Minnesota
4. Owen Daniels vs. Jacksonville
5. Jimmy Graham vs. New York Giants
6. Jason Witten vs. Miami
7. Fred Davis vs. Seattle
8. Jermaine Gresham vs. Cleveland
9. Heath Miller vs. Kansas City
10. Greg Olsen vs. Indianapolis

5 Worst Plays

32. Marcedes Lewis vs. Houston
31. Todd Heap/Jeff King vs. St. Louis
30. Zach Miller vs. Washington
29. Leonard Pope vs. Pittsburgh
28. Visanthe Shiancoe vs. Atlanta

Other Notable Rankings:

13. Jermichael Finley vs. Detroit
16. Kellen Winslow vs. Tennessee
20. Vernon Davis vs. Baltimore
24. Antonio Gates vs. Denver
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby Apoplectic » Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:18 pm

Well, I've got Rivers, Michael Bush, Lloyd, Welker and Pettigrew so I should be fine ;-D .
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby Mr.Joshua » Wed Nov 23, 2011 6:40 pm

Hey Matt,
I have an impossible call benching 1 of Wallace, SSmith,Fitz or Jordy. Leaning towards Jordy due to lack of targets and the matchup with Detroit. Its 1 ppr. Same league, Im thinking of still playing Stewart over Spiller, even with Jackson done for the year. Nice matchup and Spiller hasnt shown anything yet this year, but also hasnt got the carries. Any thoughts on those two issues? Thanks.
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby jay0582 » Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:06 am

mr joshua... i know you werent talking to me , im not matt obviously, but you have a very interesting situation. It is a good problem to have though. I do not think the answer is benching nelson though. Have you checked out his last 3 games, and its thanksgiving national tv, he is gonna be pumped and ready to go, and his targets arent wonderful but not terrible... 18 in the last 3 weeks, but theyve hooked up on 15 of those, rodgers doesnt miss when he throws it to jordy... i would sit wallace this week and hope he doesnt score 30 haha..but hes only scored more then 15 points once in the last 4 weeks when he scored 20 in week 7
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby mattb47 » Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:08 am

Mr.Joshua wrote:Hey Matt,
I have an impossible call benching 1 of Wallace, SSmith,Fitz or Jordy. Leaning towards Jordy due to lack of targets and the matchup with Detroit. Its 1 ppr. Same league, Im thinking of still playing Stewart over Spiller, even with Jackson done for the year. Nice matchup and Spiller hasnt shown anything yet this year, but also hasnt got the carries. Any thoughts on those two issues? Thanks.


It's tough to do here because of how productive he's been (by far the most productive WR2 out there) but I would probably sit Nelson here. Jordy has been great and has been on a roll but I have Detroit ranked as the 4th best defense against WR2s this season actually as they haven't even allowed a single TD to a WR2 all season. Average output against them is 3.4 catches for 42 yards and like you said, Nelson doesn't necessarily get a lot of looks, just seems to capitalize when he does.

Those other 3 are all the focal points of their team's passing games and get SO many more targets and receptions its not even close there, I think that pushes it over the top for me in a PPR league. As you can see on my list I have all 3 of those guys as top 6 plays this week and I just think that it's a smarter idea to go with the guys who have more opportunities every game to get passes thrown their way. Nelson has been good but he has the occasional dud because of the nature of the offense he plays in so I would go there myself.

I think Stewart is a good play over Spiller...I haven't been impressed with Spiller either and he's really shown nothing to hint at the idea that if he got more touches he would do anything more. Usually guys put up bigger yards per touch when used in the change of pace position than in a full time role so the fact that he hasn't doesn't bode well I don't think. Stewart is pretty involved in the Carolina passing game so I like him more in a PPR. Indianapolis is the 2nd best matchup for RBs according to my numbers and they give up about 167 total yards per game to RBs (rushing + receiving) so there's a lot to like in that matchup.
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby DraftDodger » Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:33 am

Forte at #14 with Cutler out, and most people expecting a monster game out of him? I'll be surprised if he's not in the Top 3 this week, regardless of match-ups. Who are you as the OC going to trust at the goal line in that game? I know I'd trust Forte. And if the passing game doesn't get going, he'll get dump balls all day too.

There are some performances the stats can't predict; this is one of them.

EDIT: Sorry, don't want this post to just be negative. I've done match-up analysis before and understand the incredible amount of work that goes into it. Thank you for all the work you put into these posts; I know we only see the results, not all the data crunching that goes into it.

And Happy Thanksgiving!
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby mattb47 » Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:19 am

DraftDodger wrote:Forte at #14 with Cutler out, and most people expecting a monster game out of him? I'll be surprised if he's not in the Top 3 this week, regardless of match-ups. Who are you as the OC going to trust at the goal line in that game? I know I'd trust Forte. And if the passing game doesn't get going, he'll get dump balls all day too.

There are some performances the stats can't predict; this is one of them.

EDIT: Sorry, don't want this post to just be negative. I've done match-up analysis before and understand the incredible amount of work that goes into it. Thank you for all the work you put into these posts; I know we only see the results, not all the data crunching that goes into it.

And Happy Thanksgiving!


Agreed on that. There have been no adjustments made here to account for any outside factors so things like that can't be really implemented statistically. Forte should see one of the higher touch totals this week of any RB in the NFL and is definitely going to be a better than #14 play this week at RB. ;-D
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby Mr.Joshua » Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:28 pm

;-D - benched Jordy, lets hope the others do their job this week.
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Re: Analyzing Fantasy Matchups - Week 12

Postby JackedSierra » Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:44 pm

Mr.Joshua wrote:;-D - benched Jordy, lets hope the others do their job this week.

good move benching jordy.. you cant control what your other wr's will do but atleast you didnt bench someone that produced!
1 point ppr
stafford, henne
best, deangelo, mccoy, benson, starks
fitzgerald, d-jax, jordy nelson, harvin, hester
gates, gonzalez
rackers
baltimore
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