Defense Analyzer - Week 12

[prince_45243]

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=508417

Last week's analysis:

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: CHI-7, GB-7, SF-16, NYJ-7, SEA-15, DAL-7
YAHOO ONLY: BAL - 8, JAC-5, NE-22, ATL-4
ANALYZER ONLY: CIN-2, DET-5, NYG-8, STL-8

All of the Yahoo and Analyzer picks were above average games and 2/6 were break out games in my league.
Yahoo also called the NE blow out which the analyzer missed and BAL's pick. The Analyzer ahd above average games from NYG and STL but no breakout games. Advantage to Yahoo which got as many above average games and one more break out game.

Both systems missed MIA destroying BUF for 19 points, DEN over NYJ (17), OAK v. MIN (15), PHI@NYG (11) and CAR@DET(10).

DEFENSE
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.



And the following shows the actual defense points by week for my league:


SF retakes top honors as the most consistent defense in the league with 6/10 having break out games and only 1 below average game for the year. CHI has had 2 below average games and 5/10 break out games. GB has had 6/10 break out games and no below average games and HOU has had 6/10 break out games but with 3 below average games.

I would classify as Stud as a team that you start no matter the matchup because they score so well irregardless.

Stud: SF, CHI, GB, HOU - Are teams I would consider 'never sits'. Their odds of getting you a break out game are high and the risks of a below average game are low.
Studly: I had CIN, BAL, PHI and NYJ in the studly category. PHI again did well with now their 5th game that is well above average and 4/5 break out games. BAL and NYJ had above average games but CIN had only 2 points. I would probably move CIN back out of this category to matchup only. BAL hasn't had a break out game since week 7 and only one since week 4. NYJ have had 3 break out games since week 4 but some other weaker games. BUF has also had 3 very flat weeks of 5, 4, and -1 points and CIN has had 3 weeks of 5, 7 and 2 points.

The following shows the output that the oppoenent is giving defending teams:

Once more STL and IND are the teams to matchup with. NYJ have climbed into 3rd place on the strength of 3/4 of their last games giving out break out games of 10+points. WAS had given up 5 consecutive weeks of break out games and if you look at the figures, it seems to be nearly Grossman specific. He has a terrible outing and gets benched and then back-up puts up great points for everyone else. Not sure they'll stay up there. KC has given out 4 above average and 3/4 weeks of break out games. SD continues to be a nice matchup with 6/10 break out games and only one below average game all year. CAR is more up and down than I would have thought.
HOU and GB continue to be the worst teams to play against, neither team having given up a single break out game all year. DAL has also been interesting as amatchup. Only one break out game in the past 6 games and only two above average games in 6 games.

Getting to the defense rankings:

1) CHI vs. OAK - One of my never sits
2) SF v. BAL - Another never sit
3) HOu v. JAC - Another never sit
4) NYJ v. BUF - BUF has given up 3 break out games in a row now.
5) GB v. DET - Another never sit and last two games from DET have given out 36 and 10 points
6) DEN v. SD - Den has had 5/6 above average games facing a SD team that has given up only one below aveage and 6/10 break out games this year.
7) ARI v. STL - STL has given out a lot of great weeks every week and ARI has 3/5 break out weeks.
8) CAR v. IND? - This is a softer call for me. IND has very consistently given out above average and break out weeks 7/10 weeks. But CAR is second to bottom in overall defense for me. Still they've had a few weeks that looked good defensively, just not sure how this will go.
9) CIN v. CLE - Although CIN has fallen off in the past 3 weeks, they've had some tough matchups in PIT and BAL. CLE has given out 6/7 above average and 5/7 break out games although last two were 8 and 5 point outings
10) STL v. ARI - STL has had 4 above average weeks in a row (ever since Brandon Lloyd arrived?) and ARI has given out 9/10 above average weeks and 4/10 break out weeks. I don't think much of STL as a defense but I think that they're as good a statistical bet for an above average game.

Not sure who to put in here. Still some great defenses out there including BAL, DET, NE, and some great matchups with WAS v. SEA and vice-versa and BUF v. NYJ. As always, please feel free to comment.

PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

Each line shows my rank, the team, the NFL's rank, the average score they are yielding opposing passers, and the toughness of their schedule so far this year. For example, NYJ is my top ranked passing defense, they are ranked 6th by the NFL but have allowed opposing QBs only 10.2 ppg on average and have faced the 8th toughest schedule this year.

You should also note that this is passing only and if your qb has good legs, look also at the rushing rankings.
You should also note that this doesn't take into account their opponent that week.

PASSING



CLE is ranked the number one passing defense by the NFL but I would note that they've had the 'easiest' schedule so far this year and so that might be suspect. CHI is ranked 30th by the NFL and 15th by me but I'd also note that they've had the second toughest schedule all year. CIN is ranked 10th by me and11th by NFL but have had the second easiest schedule so far this year.

Did you pick up Tebow and Decker? Because they do have SD, MIN, CHI, NE, BUF and KC to roundout the year. That is a REALLY squishy lineup of defenses. SD is allowing 17.9 ppg to opposing qbs, MIN is dead last at 20.6 ppg and even CHI, although ranked 15th by me, is 30th by NFL based on passing yards. NE is 25th by me, 32nd by NFL and BUF, KC to round out weeks 16/17. I'm not a Teboner but have to admit that looks like a nice series of matchups.

And how'd you like that Carson Palmer eh? Above average points for several weeks now, looking nice right? He finishes with CHI (15), MIA (20), GB (28), DET (3), KC (21) and week 17 SD (24). As said before CHI is 30th by NFL based on ypg. Other than DET, that looks like a nice schedule.

RUSHING


SF has yet to allow a rushing TD now in 10 straight games. But! They've had the easiest rushing schedule so far this year. Ray Rice is a 'never sit'. I bet the streak ends this week and I'd start Rice here. GB is ranked 8th by me and 12th by NFL but they've also faced the toughest rushing schedule so far this year. I sense trouble for people picking up Kevn Smith. However, he has a bunch of midling defenses after GB and so he seems to have a decent shot at picking things up. Hoping that Ogbonnaya will carry you to championship stardom? Because he does now face, CIN, BAL, PIT, ARI, BAL, PIT to close otu the season. ARI is a fluff rushing defense but the rest of those are likely to squash Ogbonnaya like a bug.

SJax is also going to shine this week vs. ARI but follow that with SF, SEA, CIN, PIT, SF. CIN is the 'weakest' of that bunch. Time to trade him away!

I had said that Murray's schedule was nice several weeks ago and that by the end of that he'd have the starting job which turned out to be right. He now has MIA (2), ARI (30), NYG (23), TB (29), PHI 16) and NYG (23) to close out the year. Other than MIA, that's a very nice lineup to look forward to and fairly or not, Murray will receive stud status next year.

Beanie Roulette! Beanie has STL (28) this week and closes out after that with DAL (10), SF (1), CLE (24), CIN (12) and week 17 SEA (7). And btw, he doesn't actually play better against tougher defenses as we saw vs. SF this past week. Only CLE looks like a favorable matchup there. I have to admit, I'm thinking of trading him but would hate for him to break out and beat me later.

Ben Tate? HOU seems to have gone to a two RB tandem and now have JAC (17), ATL (4), CIN (12), CAR (31), IND (32) and week 17 TEN (14). Frankly, I think who ever holds a healthy Arian Foster in the playoffs can expect 20-30 points each of those two weeks and I'm holding onto Tate for my playoff run.

As always, this information is for entertainment purposes only. Please don't replace common sense with a bunch of statistics!

[prince_45243]

Other Defense Rankings: Scored as breakouts/above average/below average for Week 11 (LAST WEEK).

Bleacher: SF (16), DAL (7), NYJ (7), GB (7), BAL (8), NYG (8), NE (22), JAC (5), CLE (5), BUF (-1) - 2/7/3
ESPN: SF (16), CHI (7), BAL (8), DAL (7), GB (7), JAC (5), DET (5), NYG (8), CIN (2), NE (22) - 2/7/3
Rotoworld: SF (16), DAL (7), NYJ (7), BAL (8), JAC (5), GB (7), CHI (7), CLE (5) NE (22), NYG (8) - 2/8/2
FFTOOLBOX: SF (16), NYJ (7), DAL (7), GB (7), CHI (7), NE (22), NYG (8), SD (1), CIN (2) MIN (6) - 2/7/3
Last week's analysis:

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: CHI-7, GB-7, SF-16, NYJ-7, SEA-15, DAL-7
YAHOO ONLY: BAL - 8, JAC-5, NE-22, ATL-4
ANALYZER ONLY: CIN-2, DET-5, NYG-8, STL-8

Yahoo 3/8/2
Analyzer - 2/8/2

Again, the Analyzer does as well if not better than most other ranking systems except for Yahoo which has most weeks beaten the analyzer with only a week or two the analyzer doing better. In some ways, I feel like simply stopping all of this and just posting the link to the Yahoo predictions except that Yahoo doesn't always post on Tuesday for Weds pick-ups (still haven't seen it up yet today). But it is nice to know that the analyzer is holding it's own vs. other systems and maybe even better than most.

[Mr.Joshua]

Keep with it Prince, great work. Lets go Cincy this week

[sabercats]

This is my first year to play fantasy, I have 49ers Def in my Non PPR. I try to understand your Def Analyzer but still not understand all, should i sit 49ers Def and start Houston Def or Cinci Def this week? Thanks. I dont trust Alex Smith, so i worry that Bal will score more than 17pts. (10 from Alex )

[joheshy55]

First off, GB defense sux balls, the only reason rushing def is rank a bit above average is cuz there offense is so great forcing teams to throw the ball rushing less, this thanksgiving week is gonna change go detroit. Not to mention there secondary aint even the greatest. i expect 80+ with a td from smith this week watch.

[mr.freeze18]

Wow Prince, Very usefull! thank you so much

[prince_45243]

This is my first year to play fantasy, I have 49ers Def in my Non PPR. I try to understand your Def Analyzer but still not understand all, should i sit 49ers Def and start Houston Def or Cinci Def this week? Thanks. I dont trust Alex Smith, so i worry that Bal will score more than 17pts. (10 from Alex )

Basically, the system is based on turnovers and sacks which are the only things that are modestly predictive of defensive TDs. Points against doesn't contribute that much to an overall score in FF in comparison to turnovers and sacks. Thus, the system is principally designed on TOs and sacks.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=499832

Is the link to the original post explaining how the system works.

However, as the season wore on, there were defenses that I list as 'studs'. Those are defenses that perform so well that you sorta throw out the statistics and matchups and start them every week as your odds of an above average or break out day is actually higher than using the TO/S metric. Similarly, there are opponents that give out so many above average and break out days that your odds are actually higher than using the TO/S metric. So the top 10 every week and the actual position within the top 10 is otherwise meaningless, consists of the best matchups by TO/S, the best defenses and then the best opponents. The system works fairly well.

In your case, I have no reason to suspect that SF won't continue to be a very good bet on defense (no matter what Alex Smith does). 80% of SF's games have been 'above average' games no matter their matchup all year. 60% have been 10+ point outings. Those odds are better than any statistics I could develop. HOU is also a very strong defense with 60-70% of their outings being above average but they do have a few below average outings. Still, there's no reason to suspect that JAC is such a difficult matchup that HOU's defense won't have an above average day. I think CIN is a solid defense but they are the gamble of those 3 imho. I think the stats say, you should start SF every week, even against a BAL team that doesn't routinely provide a lot of points.

First off, GB defense sux balls, the only reason rushing def is rank a bit above average is cuz there offense is so great forcing teams to throw the ball rushing less, this thanksgiving week is gonna change go detroit. Not to mention there secondary aint even the greatest. i expect 80+ with a td from smith this week watch.

I agree on the reason why their rushing defense 'looks' better than they are. People do have to play catchup and teams have a lot of success through the air. But that could actually happen to detroit too. GB *could* go up by 10+ points and DET throws instead of rushes to catch up, just as most teams have done all season. But you're right, there's nothing wrong with Kevin Smith as a start and he could easily get 80+ yards and a score. The ranking does not take into consideration the opponent, it only gives a more fantasy-perspective of what a defense is doing than the NFL defense ranking which is purely on yards. Blount last week had 107 yards and a TD. AP the week before had 57 and a TD. Tolbert had 83 on the ground plus a score plus 59 through the air. Wk 7, AP had 175 plus a TD. SJax had 96 on the ground no TD plus a handful in receivnig. Turner had 56 plus a score. McGahee had 110 but no score. Forte had only 2 yards, no score but 80 receiving, Stewart had only 5 yards and no score but 100 receiving and Sproles and Pierre combined for less than 50 yards rushing and no score but had plenty receiving.

Again, the defense rankings is a fantasy perspective that does NOT take into consideration the matchup of the week (which it actually says in the description).

[FlipRansom]

Start SF or Pitt? Sat SF last week and it was a major mistake and I'm not sure if I can do it again.

[prince_45243]

Start SF or Pitt? Sat SF last week and it was a major mistake and I'm not sure if I can do it again.

Conventional wisdom says to start SF even though BAL hasn't given up many break out weeks in the past few weeks. PIT v. KC looks okay too largely because KC has given up a lot of above average games of late. But PIT has struggled to have breakout games this season and so from a statistical stand point, I think SF looks like the better matchup. Of course, trusting your instincts and so forth sometimes works better

[prince_45243]

Something wrong with photobucket's images. Hopefully back up soon:

Yahoo:
1) PIT
2) NYJ
3) HOU
4) CIN
5) DAL
6) SF
7) CHI
8) BAL
9) SEA
10) GB
Analyzer:
1) CHI
2) SF
3) HOU
4) NYJ
5) GB
6) DEN
7) ARI
8) CAR
9) CIN
10) STL

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: CHI, SF (1), HOU, NYJ, GB (8), CIN
Yahoo Alone: PIT, DAL (7), BAL, SEA,
Analyzer Alone: DEN, ARI, CAR, STL

Well, we know SF didn't work out that well. PIT v. KC looks very nice to me, I like that call. DAL v. MIA yielded 7 points in my league. BAL v. SF yielded 18 points in my league, SEA v. WAS looks like a good pick to me as well for the rising hawks although interesting to see if my theory about the stop in 10+ point games ends with Rex's return.

The four I went alone were matchup based. SD has given up a great many points of late. ARI and STL play each other and CAR plays IND. A true test this week of matchup as we're putting some disastrously bad defenses up there

Remember prior performance is no guarantee of future results!