So I'm in a dynasty league and thinking about our rookie draft next year, yes home sick and bored. So we do. A 3rd rookie / free agent draft and through a trade I have (what should be ) the #2 overall pick. Right now I'm thinking it is between Blackmon or Luck for me. So to I go with the next elite qb or another stud wr? My Team QB Eli, Ryan WR Fitzgerald, Calvin, Colston, Nelson, Rice, Decker, Manninham RB AP, Bradshaw, Benson, M Bush, Green Ellis, Hardesty, Starks TE Gronk, Daniels, D Clark
Right now, without knowing where people are going to go, I have Richardson (he will declare) #1 and Blackmon #2, so whoever is there out of those 2 right now is who I would take in that order.
dblj9911 wrote:So to I go with the next elite qb or another stud wr?
There's been a lot of talk already in dynasty leagues about folks using a top 3 pick on QB Andrew Luck, and I think we're going to see a lot more of it this offseason. I think there is an important point to make about Luck, and in the interest of full disclosure, this is something that I first heard ESPN's Colin Cowherd talk about a few weeks ago in a rare display of non-annoyance.
I think it's important to note that as an NFL prospect, Luck has all the physical and mental attributes that a premier quarterback in the NFL displays. And based on that, most folks evaluating Luck would be very schocked if, blessed with all these qualities he displayed in college, he would completely fail in the NFL. I think very few, if any scouts & talent evaluators, are however insinuating that Luck is going to be a Hall of Fame quarterback. While he certainly has that potential, I don't think anyone is guaranteeing that proposition. I think what most folks are intimating is that based on his skill set, he has both a very high ceiling AND a very high floor. Just about everyone would be shocked if Luck was a bust - a JaMarcus Russell, a David Carr, a Tim Couch, or a Ryan Leaf. I personally think that at his worst, Luck will be a Matt Ryan, a Carson Palmer, a Donovan McNabb - a player with a high floor and basically someone who is an above average QB from both a fantasy and a real life perspective. But not necessarily a Pro Bowl player from day 1.
Of course, there's always the possibility that Luck becomes a Peyton Manning, a Tom Brady, an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees. He does have that potential. But I personally would not go into dynasty league rookie drafts next year expecting that. And then consequently being disappointed if he's not a fantasy monster in the first year or two. I think that no matter what, the NFL world is going to immediately judge Andrew Luck and hold him to some impossibly high standards based on the media hype created around him. I hope the same thing doesn't happen in the fantasy world, and I think that if managers are using 1.01 overall picks on Luck, they are setting themselves up for this possibility. And when faced with elite prospects like RB Trent Richardson & WR Justin Blackmon, I just don't see how managers pass on these prospects for Luck. Something else that also complicates the issue is that Robert Griffin III may end up being a fantasy monster, and he could be more of a value at the end of the first round inv as a "consolation" for managers who miss out on Luck.
Don't get me wrong, Luck is the best QB prospect I've seen since I started playing fantasy football in 2002. I like almost everything about him, and it sure would be nice to have a "set-it-and-forget-it" QB in my lineup (like Brees & Rodgers are) for the next ten years. But I'm just not sold on using such a high draft pick on Luck in dynasty league rookie drafts in 2012.
dblj9911 wrote:So to I go with the next elite qb or another stud wr?
There's been a lot of talk already in dynasty leagues about folks using a top 3 pick on QB Andrew Luck, and I think we're going to see a lot more of it this offseason. I think there is an important point to make about Luck, and in the interest of full disclosure, this is something that I first heard ESPN's Colin Cowherd talk about a few weeks ago in a rare display of non-annoyance.
I think it's important to note that as an NFL prospect, Luck has all the physical and mental attributes that a premier quarterback in the NFL displays. And based on that, most folks evaluating Luck would be very schocked if, blessed with all these qualities he displayed in college, he would completely fail in the NFL. I think very few, if any scouts & talent evaluators, are however insinuating that Luck is going to be a Hall of Fame quarterback. While he certainly has that potential, I don't think anyone is guaranteeing that proposition. I think what most folks are intimating is that based on his skill set, he has both a very high ceiling AND a very high floor. Just about everyone would be shocked if Luck was a bust - a JaMarcus Russell, a David Carr, a Tim Couch, or a Ryan Leaf. I personally think that at his worst, Luck will be a Matt Ryan, a Carson Palmer, a Donovan McNabb - a player with a high floor and basically someone who is an above average QB from both a fantasy and a real life perspective. But not necessarily a Pro Bowl player from day 1.
Of course, there's always the possibility that Luck becomes a Peyton Manning, a Tom Brady, an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees. He does have that potential. But I personally would not go into dynasty league rookie drafts next year expecting that. And then consequently being disappointed if he's not a fantasy monster in the first year or two. I think that no matter what, the NFL world is going to immediately judge Andrew Luck and hold him to some impossibly high standards based on the media hype created around him. I hope the same thing doesn't happen in the fantasy world, and I think that if managers are using 1.01 overall picks on Luck, they are setting themselves up for this possibility. And when faced with elite prospects like RB Trent Richardson & WR Justin Blackmon, I just don't see how managers pass on these prospects for Luck. Something else that also complicates the issue is that Robert Griffin III may end up being a fantasy monster, and he could be more of a value at the end of the first round inv as a "consolation" for managers who miss out on Luck.
Don't get me wrong, Luck is the best QB prospect I've seen since I started playing fantasy football in 2002. I like almost everything about him, and it sure would be nice to have a "set-it-and-forget-it" QB in my lineup (like Brees & Rodgers are) for the next ten years. But I'm just not sold on using such a high draft pick on Luck in dynasty league rookie drafts in 2012.
Nice take on the Luck situation. I agree 100% with what you said, especially in regards to expected production vs. real production, both in fantasy and "real-life" football.
While I am no scout, I am a football junkie -- NFL and college -- and I am very impressed with Luck. I see him as a combination of Stafford and Brady... which would hypothetically make him a perennial top-5 or top-3 fantasy QB.
It's obviously ridiculously early to pinpoint, with so many variables prior to the 2012 draft -- but at this point in time, where is the earliest that you would select Luck in a rookie draft?
Indibuck wrote:It's obviously ridiculously early to pinpoint, with so many variables prior to the 2012 draft -- but at this point in time, where is the earliest that you would select Luck in a rookie draft?
It's obviously going to depend on who declares, and to much a smaller degree, what NFL team these players get drafted to (when it comes to dynasty, talent should always trump opportunity) but right now I think I'd take:
RB Trent Richardson
WR Justin Blackmon
RB Lamar Miller
over Luck. I'm also a big fan of RBs Chris Polk and David Wilson and if they declare, I'd have to give them serious consideration over Luck.
Imo, a smart thing a manager with a top pick can do is to try and trade down to another manager who is desperate for Luck.
Well my early season trade of D. Williams, Stevie Johnson and my 2nd rd rookie pick for his Bradshaw, Manningham and his 1st rd pick has paid off, he didn't win a game the rest of the year and I now have the #1 overall pick, Richardson. So now I'm thinking about offering up Nelson for the highest draft pick I can get, I already know that I can get the #5, but I want the # 2 or 3 pick for him. Sof if I do trade away Nelson and can somehow land the #2 or #3 pick and Luck is there do I get my top qb now or do I take another rb / wr and keep rolling with Eli? I like the idea of giving Luck and most likely Indy a year or two to get him some experience and talent around him, go with Eli and then in a year or two just start Luck every week. Or do I just stick with my team and look to RGIII with my #7 overall pick?? Plus my rb's could gain some added depth with M. Bush being a free agent this year also which will help while AP is coming back from injury.
dblj9911 wrote:Well my early season trade of D. Williams, Stevie Johnson and my 2nd rd rookie pick for his Bradshaw, Manningham and his 1st rd pick has paid off, he didn't win a game the rest of the year and I now have the #1 overall pick, Richardson. So now I'm thinking about offering up Nelson for the highest draft pick I can get, I already know that I can get the #5, but I want the # 2 or 3 pick for him. Sof if I do trade away Nelson and can somehow land the #2 or #3 pick and Luck is there do I get my top qb now or do I take another rb / wr and keep rolling with Eli? I like the idea of giving Luck and most likely Indy a year or two to get him some experience and talent around him, go with Eli and then in a year or two just start Luck every week. Or do I just stick with my team and look to RGIII with my #7 overall pick?? Plus my rb's could gain some added depth with M. Bush being a free agent this year also which will help while AP is coming back from injury.
If you have 1-2 I would take Richardson and then Blackmon.
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- Trent Richardson swept the Cleveland Browns off their feet -- or at least one notable member of the franchise.
The former Crimson Tide tailback probably left a lasting impression on Browns running backs coach Gary Brown on Thursday during Round 2 of Alabama's pro day.
Richardson bowled over Brown -- a still-sturdy eight-year NFL veteran runner -- in a blocking drill. So a potential suitor -- the Browns have the fourth pick in April and need a running back -- at least knows Richardson packs a wallop.
"Any time someone's in my way, I'm going to try to knock them over," Richardson said. "Either they're going to hit me or I'm going to hit them. So nine times out of 10, I'm trying to throw the lick."
Brown was among the large assembly of NFL scouts, coaches and general managers who attended the workouts.
A possible top-five draft pick, the physical 227-pound Richardson ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.45-4.49 range, according to NFL.com. He bench-pressed 225 pounds 25 times.
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by dblj9911 » Wed Nov 30, 2011 5:34 pm 
