Defense Analyzer - Week 14

[prince_45243]

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=509731

The Monday Morning QBing:

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: SF (18), CHI (8), NE (6), GB (7), DAL (6), BAL (15), NYJ (9)
YAHOO ONLY: PIT (17), KC (20), ATL (6)
ANALYZER ONLY: HOU (8), PHI (3), TEN (5)

A clear win for Yahoo. Yahoo predicted 2 more break out games than the analyzer did. The systems in general picked 10/10 for above average games (average being 5) vs. 8/10 for the analyzer. It's swung back and forth. Learning from this week, KC was a good call on a suspect new QB in CHI although ATL didn't capitalize from the same logic vs. HOU or NE vs. IND so I'm not sure how good a metric that is. Overall, there were very fw break out games last week. Both systems missed SEA who tore up Vince Young and MIA who made a single turnover into a TD.

DEFENSE:
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.



The following are the actual points produced by the defense:


And the following are the actual points given out by an offense:


My definition of STUD is a defense that has few below average games and a high portion of above average/break out games.
GB is 0/6
HOU is 2/6
SF is 2/7
BAL is 3/6

Studly - Watch matchups
CHI is 3/5
NYJ is 3/5

Overall, a Stud is one that you start every week no matter the matchup as they may have a bad game now and again but the odds are excellent they'll have an above average game. Studly is still a great defense, just not quite as many break out games and more below average games.

STL once again proved that they are the best team to play against giving up 18 points to SF last week. IND however, surprised me with a paltry 6 points given to NE. KC and ARI also gave very modest points to their opponents and SEA and NYJ gave below average games. SEA's trend overall in the past four weeks has been to yield very ugly output to defenses. Something interesting to watch.

So the Analyzer's adjusted top 10 is:

1) SF v. ARI - A never sit team playinng ARI who has given only 1 below average game all year. Hopefully last week a fluke.
2) BAL v. IND - Another never sit defense with a cherry matchup vs. IND. Hopefully IND gets back to giving up break out weeks.
3) SEA v. STL - SEA has been pretty hot as a defense with 3/5 above average and 2/5 breakout games going up against STL has yet to yield a below average week to a defense and has 10/12 weeks with break out games. GET SEA!
4) NYJ v. KC - A studly defense with a great matchup. KC has given 6 striaght weeks of above average points and 4/6 break out games.
5) HOU v. CIN - HOU has 4 nice games in a row with 3/4 being break out games. They are a never sit facing a tougher matchup in CIN. CIN did just give up 17 to PIT and 8 to BAL recently and so this gets up to 5.
6) DEN v. CHI - DEN has been pretty solid as a defense with above average in all of their last 5 weeks and 3/5 with break out games. CHI has been broken for several weeks now and has given out 11 and 20 points in their last two weeks.
7) DET v. MIN - A once studly defense, DET has been cold since week 8 but plays a MIN team that has given 3 of their last 4 as break out games.
8) GB v. OAK - GB has cooled off as a defense with 6,8 and 7 points in the last 3 weeks and OAK has yielded 2 break out games in teh last 5 but also 3 games of 5, 5 and 6 points. Still, GB is one of my never sits and is a safe bet for an above average day.
9) CHI v. DEN - A studly defense but with a tough matchup vs. DEN who has given up 3 outings in their last 5 of less than 3 points and no
break outs since week 8. I'd be very cautious here.
10) NE v. WAS - NE has not been very consistent as a defense and couldn't capitalize on a nice matchup vs. IND last week. WAS has cooled off with the return of Gross man as well. Still, this has a nice look to it from a defensive standpoint of sacks and turnover matchup.

PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

This week, I combined the tables into one figure to make the post shorter. PASSING ON THE LEFT, RUSHING ON THE RIGHT:

SF is my number 1 rushing defense, they are ranked number 1 by the NFL, have yielded opposing rushers an average of only 5.8 ppg but have faced the weakest rushing schedule of the year.



Passing defenses have looked pretty brutal for awhile. CLE still strikes me as odd but I suppose they haven't faced a Brady or a Brees or Rodgers as yet. Rivers will be an interesting test. SEA is ranked 20th against the pass by the NFL but they have only given up 16 TDs in 12 games this year and have a very respectable 16 picks for the year. SF is also not ranked very highly by the NFL at 16th but have given up only 15 TDs in 12 games and have 16 picks as well. Despite what the yards show, as a fantasy defense, these are hard numbers to ignore.

NO, NE and GB have been sieves with the respect to yards given as shown by their NFL ranks but their actual TDs yielded are 22 for GB, 19 for NO and 18 for NE in 12 games. That's actually not that far off from the top 10 teams. NE has 17 picks, NO only has 7 picks and GB has a very respectable 23 picks. Thus, they end up being more highly ranked by me than the NFL.

In Rushing, SF again did not yield a rushing TD for now the 12th game in a row. MIA ranks as my number 2 defense having yielded only 3 TD on the ground in 12 games (!). That's really pathetic. DEN has yielded a lot of yards at 121 per game pushing the m down to 20th on the NFL ranking but did you know that they've only yielded 5 TD this year on the ground? That's better than Baltimore, Houston and Pitsburgh each with 6 TDs in 12 games. DAL has given a average of 100 ypg but only 7 rushing TDs this year.

TB and IND tie for the most yielded at 17 TD in 12 games. CAR is close behind at 15 TD and BUF has yielded a shocking 14 TD this year. STL by comparison has given up a ridiculous 157 ypg but only 9 rushing TDs.

While MIA is good at protecting their endzone, they have only 2 fumble recoveries in 12 games which is league worst. PIT also has had trouble taking the ball away with 4 which is worse than IND who has 5.

BAL is arguably the best passing defense based on TDs yielded but another big reason is taht they lead the league with 41 sacks(!). But wouldn't you be surprised to learn that MIN is second on that list with 35!. DAL and HOU also have 35 sacks on the year and WAS, DEN, STL (huh?) , PHI, OAK and NYG have 33 sacks. That's nearly 3 per game for most of those teams. By comparison, the Bills have only 17 sacks on the year and TB and IND each have 19 sacks.

As always, this information is for entertainment purposes only. Please don't replace common sense and intuition with a bunch of statistics

[prince_45243]

Also, I'm betting Yahoo brings back PIT v. CLE as a pick. CLE yielded double digits again this past week and has done so in 6 of 12 games this year and PIT has been a strong defense for two weeks running. It's ranked 14th on my list but I suppose should be higher.

[robotninja]

Gut Reaction

Hou @ Cin
Cin vs Hou
Den vs Chi
Ten vs NO

Yes I have officially stockpiled 4 damn defenses, what can I say we have deep benches for a 12 team league.

Bonus question, you think im crazy to play Antonio Brown vs Cle over Finley vs Oak?

[prince_45243]

Yahoo rankings:
1) NYJ v. KC
2) SF @ ARI
3) BAL v IND
4) PIT v. CLE
5) GB v. OAK
6) SEA v. STL
7) JAC v. TB
8) CIN v. HOU
9) KC @ NYJ
10) NE @ WAS
Analyzer
1) SF @ ARI
2) BAL v. IND
3) SEA v. STL
4) NYJ v. KC
5) HOU v. CIN
6) DEN v. CHI
7) DET v. MIn
8) GB v. OAK
9) CHI v. DEN
10) NE v. WAS

Both Yahoo and Analyzer: SF, BAL, SEA, NYJ, GB, NE
Yahoo Only: PIT, JAC, CIN, KC
Analyzer: HOU, DEN, DET, CHI

I had predicted Yahoo would call PIT and I agree that it's an excellent start. Statistically I can't argue for it but I think it's pretty smart. JAC has been an okay defense from a yards perspective, one break out game in their last 5 but 3 midling performances in there. TB has given out 2 break out games in the last 5 but also 3 midling games. I wouldn't have put JAC up there myself. CIN v. HOU is an interesting pick. 5 straight weeks of mediocre games from CIN and HOU hasn't given a break out game all year. I'm not sure I see this one but they did a good job on PIT v. CIN last week. KC has 9 and 20 points in their last 2 games but plays a jets team that has given up only 3 and 1 point in their last 2 games. Jets can give up some big days on defense but there's nothing here that looks special to me. Could be a fun one to watch though.

I chose HOU v. CIN. HOU has had 3 of their last 4 be break out games with one 8 point outing. CIN gave up 17 points last week but that was their first break out game since week 4. In between, only one 8 point game. I think it's a hedge but I like HOU's performance this year in general, despite multiple injuries. DEN has had 5 straight above average games including 3 break out games and plays a CHI team that has lost their QB and Forte. Last two games, CHI has given up 11 and 20 points. A sneaky pick, I admit but I like it still. DET has been cold for four weeks but plays a MIN team that has given 3 of their last 4 games as 14+ outings. I think it's an okay pick. CHI playing DEN probably isn't such a smart pick on my part. DEN has been cold for about 5 games as an opponent but fantasy wise, CHI has been a top 3 defense this year and even on their off days, rarely give a below average game.


Good luck!

[prince_45243]

Hou @ Cin
Cin vs Hou
Den vs Chi
Ten vs NO

Bonus question, you think im crazy to play Antonio Brown vs Cle over Finley vs Oak?

Without any stats, I like DEN v. CHI the most of those. Putting some statistics with that, DEN last 5 games are 14, 8, 17, 7 and 14 points. CHI has given up 9, 4, 1, 11 and 20 points. DEN's stock is rising and CHI has lost their QB and RB. Hanie couldn't scare a kitten. I'm not over fond of CIN or TEN. HOU and NO have been terrible to bet against most of the year imho. Last 4 outings for NO have given the defenses 2, 0, 4 and 1 point. HOU has given 1, 3, 9 and 6 points. HOU @ CIN is the only one I'd probably consider mostly on HOU's performance being equivalent to PIT who blew CIN up for 17 points. HOU is the conservative play, I think DEN vs. CHI is a little bit 'cute' but could pay off.

Brown v. Finley. It's not crazy to think of but Brown has only 1 TD all year (1 game in 12) going up against the NFL's number 1 ranked passing defense to Finley's 6 TD in the year (four of 12 games played) going up against the 17th ranked passing defense. GB is a team that has a running game for strictly decoy purposes. Finley is a bigger bet for TDs and I think an equal bet for yards. Unless you know something not covered in that, I think you are probably better off with Finley. Brown could blow it up but I guess I have no way of predicting that over Finley at this point.

Good luck

[marley972]

Really needing your thoughts on this here

I need to figure out which one to start this week. Here are my options:

Bengals home against Houston- I could see TJ Yates throwing some pics. He threw a pic 6 last week, just got called back

Cardinals home against SanFran- I know this is SF, but cardinals been playing better. My league gives def pts for punt returns. Thinking since SF clinced a playoff, they may get caught looking ahead this week

Cowboys home against Giants- Giants could be spent after last weeks battle. But they usually score on Dallas

All home teams, I like that, but which would you choose and why??

Thanks bud!!

[prince_45243]

Bengals home against Houston- I could see TJ Yates throwing some pics. He threw a pic 6 last week, just got called back

Cardinals home against SanFran- I know this is SF, but cardinals been playing better. My league gives def pts for punt returns. Thinking since SF clinced a playoff, they may get caught looking ahead this week

Cowboys home against Giants- Giants could be spent after last weeks battle. But they usually score on Dallas.

Hm pretty tough. SF actually hasn't been that fun opponent to be against and just 3 weeks ago SF only gave ARI 2 points. Only BAL has had recent success vs. SF and I'm not sure that I see SF getting caught looking ahead. They'll likely keep the pressure up for home field should GB slip up in the home stretch. ARI has been a fine defense (fantasy wise) including 4 break out games in their last 6 but has gotten to play STL twice in that stretch. In short, there's some arguments there but I don't find enough to tilt me to starting the over your other options.

DAL v. NYG isn't a bad bet. DAL has surprisingly scored more points now than CIN has although CIN plays in a much tougher division (BAL and PIT). DAL has only two bad games as a defense all year and the Giants can be volatile as an opponent. It's not a bad pick, just not seeing anything particularly spectacular.

Then CIN v. HOU. Although HOU hasn't given out a break out game all year, their last two games were for 9 and 6 points playing midling defenses in TB and ATL. CIN is a higher quality defense than those two are and with a 3rd string qb, injuries to AJ, and CIN being number 6 ranked on rushing defense based no ypg, I think it'll be a low scoring affair and potential for turnovers. (Coming round to Yahoo picking them).

Conservative play is probably DAL. DAL has been comparable to CIN as a defense in points scored but has a statistically better matchup. Gambling a bit would be CIN v. HOU. Much depends there on a low score from HOU which hasn't happened much this year and Yates potential to throw a pick 6. ARI v. SF relies very heavily on ARI as a defense and for SF to have an uncharacteristic day. History is against you here in that SF hasn't given up many bad games, only 2 points in the last outing to ARI and ARI fares well mostly against poor offenses. Not sure I buy that one yet

Good luck!

[prince_45243]

Brown v. Finley. It's not crazy to think of but Brown has only 1 TD all year (1 game in 12) going up against the NFL's number 1 ranked passing defense to Finley's 6 TD in the year (four of 12 games played) going up against the 17th ranked passing defense. GB is a team that has a running game for strictly decoy purposes. Finley is a bigger bet for TDs and I think an equal bet for yards. Unless you know something not covered in that, I think you are probably better off with Finley. Brown could blow it up but I guess I have no way of predicting that over Finley at this point.

Good luck

Brown: 151/1= 21.1 points

/facepalm

I'm really sorry dude!

[robotninja]

No worries, should have just gone with my gut instead of asking. Its kind of a weird league and i dont need a win this week, and next week I will have a first round bye so really they are just gravy points. Maybe Finley has another 3 TD game, thatd be some nice gravy!

[prince_45243]

As I say to people too addicted to ff help sites, eventually, you get to know your own 16 players better than the guy who is trying to know hundreds of players really well. Instincts, intuition, heebie-jeebies. All may be unscientific but it's much less satisfying losing because you listened to some random person on the internet than listening to your instincts.