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Re: gronkowski

Postby Lickitysplit131 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:23 am

TaDa wrote:Anyone who spends a first round pick on a TE deserves the bottom of the rankings that they will end up in.

I'm in a very TE favorable league (5 point bonus after 75 yards receiving. PPR, etc.) and the TEs didn't start to go until round 4. No matter how good a TE may be, you still have to take a good RB and QB before them.



Why? Because historically, a fantasy football magazine told you to take a TE late and a RB/QB early?

If Gronk finishes the year at 1300 yards and 17 TDs, why isn't he a first round pick? Why isn't he #1 overall? The next TE on the list will be getting 1000 yds/9 TDs and he just dominates that. If you want to draft value at a position, how can you get more then Gronk at TE?

Just for the record, this season isn't a fluke. I had a person who I knew very well play for the Patriots throughout training camp and he is not on another team. He told me during training camp to draft Gronk in every league I play in because he will be the best TE in the league. He told me that Gronk is literially uncoverable and he has never seen somebody so athletic for being so big. Every redzone opportunity, the ball is going to Gronk he told me. So you know what, I drafted him in every league a bit earlier then he should of and am reaping the benefits.

I see him as a first round pick next year, not quite sure about top 5, but he will go in the middle of the first how Andre Johnson went this year.
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Re: gronkowski

Postby Free John Beck » Fri Dec 16, 2011 7:55 pm

knowing bellichick's offense, how do we know that hernandez won't be the chosen one next year, especially with gronkowski drawing extra coverage?
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Re: gronkowski

Postby TaDa » Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:59 pm

And you really think that the pats are going to stay thout a wideout? The E in TE stands for end. They are supposed to be used for blocking and rushing schemes with the occasional out route. A QB and RB are simply going to have more chances at lays than a TE will.

But don't believe me. Please draft him in the middle of the first round next year and check back in to let us know how it worked out
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Re: gronkowski

Postby Lickitysplit131 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:03 pm

I agree that Belichick's ever changing offense is something to worry about, and because of that I probably would wait until the 2nd round as well. But my argument is that the value is there for him being taken in the first round.

The whole E standing for End thing and him being a blocker is irrelevant. The tight end position has changed. This isnt like 00 when Shannon Sharpe gets 800 yards and 6 touchdowns and he blows away every other Tight End int he league. Tight Ends are used primarily as pass catchers on some teams now, and I feel thats the direction the entire NFL is evolving towards.

The Patriots understand that transition better then most teams, and have adapted by adding 2 TEs on the field to cause matchup problems. The NFL has never seen a 6'6 guy who can run a 4.5 and jump 35 inches in the air. Defenses don't have players athletic enough to stop someone of that size when they are in the open field catching passes- It's as simple as that. A CB is 6'0 190 LBs isn't going to stop Gronk from catching a 10 yard out(he'll be there step for step but can't defend 6'6 if your 6'0) nor will the CB be able to tackle him once its caught. A 6'4 260 LB linebacker is not athletic enough to get to Gronks vertical level, nor will he be fast enough to run step for step defending a route. Their are no LBs in the league that are above 6'5 with the athleticism of some of these TEs and teams are capitalizing on that hugely right now.

The counter to this is when we start seeing more of the 3-4 scheme where you see 6'6 OLB that are transitioned from DE. But again, it's tough to find a DE who can step off the line and start covering a TE as he's running routes. It's not that easy or else every athletically gifted CB would be a good CB--And we know thats not always the case. The athleticism to stop a big TE is there, but the know-how, the skill, the technique is not there because those who are big and athletic enough are defensive lineman. Defenses aren't transitioning fast enough to defend the huge, enormously-athletic tight ends.

That's why TEs are going to dominate in the next 10 years-- The defense is lagging behind in learning to stop the changing position.
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Re: gronkowski

Postby TaDa » Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:51 am

I think you said it best when you said "some teams". In looking at the Patriots, who else are they going to throw it to? 85? Branch? It's a Welker/Hernandez/Gronkowski offense. Law-firm isn't exactly a dominating RB.

I'm not saying that Gronk isn't a freak, but so was Gonzo when he was dominant. Defenses adapted to him, and they will also adapt to the Pats.

My comment was about fantasy. In most leagues, you have 10 or so QBs and half a dozen RBs that have outscored any receiver. They're involved in more plays, and as such, will have chances at more points. You have a choice of Rodgers and Brees at 300 points. Rice or Shady at 250. Just because Gronk is the best receiver, he's still a good 50 points lower than the top tier backs and 100 lower than QBs.

I'm just telling you that I think that anyone that takes a TE in the first round will be in bad shape. This is simply my opinion (with a few numbers behind it)
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Re: gronkowski

Postby brdmaverick » Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:18 am

TaDa wrote:Anyone who spends a first round pick on a TE deserves the bottom of the rankings that they will end up in.

I'm in a very TE favorable league (5 point bonus after 75 yards receiving. PPR, etc.) and the TEs didn't start to go until round 4. No matter how good a TE may be, you still have to take a good RB and QB before them.


Look, I understand, drafting a tight end in the first round just FEELS wrong, but let me put it this way.

For the numbers that Gronk put up this year, let's remove Gronk's name next to those numbers and put Randy Moss or Andre Johnson. Over the years these two would be absolute locks to be drafted at the end of the first round. That's right, with those numbers, wide receivers Randy Moss and Andre Johnson would be drafted in the first round.

NOW, imagine that the commissioner of your league says, oh, Randy Moss and Andre Johnson will be given TIght End eligibility this year. Doesn't that actually make them EVEN MORE ATTRACTIVE. Or would you be like you and your friends and remove them from considerdation just because 'you don't take a tight end in the first round'?


People, that's what we have here. We have Gronk putting up great WIDE RECEIVER numbers as a TIGHT END.

People need to step out of the box and you need to learn to adapt. For these people who will not draft a tight end before round three, I bet they automatically still draft 2 RBs with their first two picks regardless of who is on the board.
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Re: gronkowski

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 10:07 pm

The thing with Gronkowski is that he hasn't done it before. Now granted, it is only his 2nd year in the league. And he's in a great offense (granted, the offense is centered around Brady). I still worry about his usage in games as I'm unsure of how much Belichick will use him next year. That said, I still have him as the top TE on my board, but I'd probably take him somewhere in the 15-20 range (overall).
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Re: gronkowski

Postby Sex Panther » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:34 am

I love me some Gronk, but let's be realistic here - he's coming off the best season for a TE in the history of the NFL (most yards & most TD's). Odds are incredibly stacked against him to repeat those numbers and even more stacked against him to improve on those numbers. Is he the 1st or 2nd TE off the board next August or September?

Absolutely - and for good reason.

That said, is he worth a 1st or 2nd round pick? No way IMO.

The TE position is, and will continue to be incredibly deep -

15 TE's averaged 10 PPG or more in PPR formats in 2011.

14 TE's put up more than 700 yards.

11 scored 6 or more TD.

12 averaged 4 catches or more.

11 averaged 50 yards or more.

Hernandez is still there (who is IMO an elite TE in his own right - he finished as the 3rd highest PPG average scoring TE in 2011 - behind Graham and Gronk - and should be, but probably won't be the 3rd TE taken).

Welker is still there & I would be pretty suprised if the Patirots don't add something to their WR corps to stretch defenses this off season.

By no means am I saying to avoid Gronk in drafts, I would love him on each and everyone of my fantasy squads for the next 5 years, but IMO it's a mistake to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE and building your team around him - aside from the stromnomical statistics he put up in 2011 Gronk's single most valuable asset was where he was drafted - typically the 8th round or later after filling out a roster around him.
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Re: gronkowski

Postby UnitedFive » Wed Jan 11, 2012 5:56 am

Haha, I hear owners talking about 1st round for this TE.. although I wouldn't make that mistake... I dont recall when I EVER have taken TE in the first 3 rounds lol...
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Re: gronkowski

Postby Devil Doc » Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:42 am

TaDa wrote:And you really think that the pats are going to stay thout a wideout? The E in TE stands for end. They are supposed to be used for blocking and rushing schemes with the occasional out route. A QB and RB are simply going to have more chances at lays than a TE will.

But don't believe me. Please draft him in the middle of the first round next year and check back in to let us know how it worked out



I think this is the key right here. The Pats didn't have a deep threat WR, but what they did have his TWO more than capable TE's along with Wes Welker, and maybe an above average run game. Add in Brady and Belichick's game plan, and they are a top offensive team. I have a hard time believing Gronk will put up the same numbers again next year, unless the Pats go without another deep threat WR. I can see Jimmy Graham sustaining his numbers before Gronk and probably would draft Graham before him. However both of them put up WR1 numbers this year, and drafting them mid to late 2nd and anywhere in the 3rd wouldn't suprise me. You get either of those two in the 4th or later next year and thats great value. But in a 10-12 team fantasy league, I couldn't see drafting either in the first round.
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