Sex Panther wrote:
Hernandez is still there (who is IMO an elite TE in his own right - he finished as the 3rd highest PPG average scoring TE in 2011 - behind Graham and Gronk - and should be, but probably won't be the 3rd TE taken).
I saw this argument in our draft forum, so I decided to check the actual numbers.
Gronk: 331 (1st)
Hernandez: 217 (3rd)
While Gronk is 1st and Hernandez is 3rd, that's a difference of 114 points, or basically between owning Hernandez or Anthony Fasano (107 fantasy points) or Jeremy Shockey (107 fantasy points). That's not the drop off anyone should be looking for, nor is it necessarily the best reason to wait on Hernandez or any other TE.
Not bashing Gronk at all here...
Gronk averaged 20 PPG in full PPR
Hernandez averaged 15.5 PPG in full PPR (he missed 2 games w/ a knee sprain)
Graham averaged 18.5 PPR in full PPR
Gronk set the yardage (1327) and TD reception (17) record for TE in 2011 - literally a record breaking season.
Gronk averaged more than a TD per game - 1.125 per (he had a rushing TD for 18 total)
Hernandez averaged .5 TD per game
Graham averaged .6875 TD per game
Gronk averaged 5.6 catches & 83 yards per game
Hernandez averaged 5.6 catches & 65 yards per game
Graham averaged 6.2 catches & 82 yards per game
As I said, I'm not bashing Gronk by any stretch - I love the guy, however, to think he is going going to maintain record breaking numbers year in - year out is not realistic.
Of the 3, IMO, Gronk is the most likey to suffer the biggest drop off in production in 2012 - 75/1000/10 is still stellar production from a TE and IMO is a reasonable projection for any of those 3.
If I had to bet, IMO Graham has the best shot at surpassing those numbers, simply because he doesn't have another All-Pro caliber TE on his own team to compete with.
Just my 2 cents