Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Who to Start/Bench

Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Moderator: Football Moderators

Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:55 pm

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=510760

The Monday morning QBing:

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: GB (1), CIN (7), ARI (5), BAL (-1), SF (18)
YAHOO ONLY: PIT (1), ATL (20), DAL (9), NYJ (7), HOU (1)
ANALYZER ONLY: TEN (2), MIA (9), DET (5), NO (7), CHI (9)

SEA (30), PHI (19), IND (17), WAS (13), SD (12), CAR (12), NE (10)

Ugly day for Yahoo and Analyzer. With 5 points being the median score, only 2 or 5 were above average for the joint calls and only one break out game.
Yahoo had 3/5 of their solo calls with above average games with one break out.
Analyzer had 3/5 of solo calls above average with no break out games.

Advantage slightly to analyzer.

Throughout the season, I think the Analyzer has done well but this was a bad week overall and fantasy football is like finding patterns in chaos. Green Bay finally lost a game and Indy finally won one. Ryan Mathews went bananas on the Baltimore rushing defense and Carolina shut down Houston. Many of those would have been very hard to call.

However, there's only a week left in most fantasy leagues so I press on. But I wonder if next year we could save me a lot of time and effort with just listing a link to the Yahoo defense rankings every week :)

DEFENSE:
Turnovers/Sacks are the most reliable predictor that I can find for above average and breakout games. Other additions into the analysis only served to reduce reliability. The following lists are the rank, the defending team, their matchup for the week, the average sacks/turnovers obtained by the defending team, the same given up by their matchup and then the overall score. These are averages which consider the number of games played as some teams have now gone through bye weeks.

Image

The following figure shows the defense's production per week in my league:

Image

And this figure shows the output that offenses have given to a defense per week in my league.
Image

1) SF v. SEA - SF has been an elite defense with only 2 below average games all year and with 8/15 games having break out games. SEA has been on the rise and hasn't given a break out since week 9 but has arguably had easier matchups than SF.
2) GB v. CHI - GB suffered badly last week with only 1 point in their surprise loss to KC. But have otherwise had a solid year with no below average games and 7/15 games with breakout weeks and in particular, CHI has recently given out 4 break out games in a row since losing Cutler and then Forte.
3) BAL v. CLE - Baltimore also stumbled badly this past week v. SD and has now given up 4 below average games this year along with 6/15 with break out games. CLE has been hot and cold as an opponent with 2 break out games in their last 5.
4) PIT v. STL - STL finally gave a mediocre 7 point game which is still above average. They've given a league leading 12/15 games as break out games this year facing a PIT defnse that although giving out only 1 point vs. SF last week, had 3 break out weeks in a row.
5) NE v. MIA - NE has been on a little mini run with 4 of their last 6 having break out games and face a MIA team that can occasionally failboat in an AFC east matchup.
6) CIN v. ARI - CIN hasn't exactly exploded as a defense of late and has been much cooler since week 8. ARI has only given out one below average game this year but has given out 6 break out games. The trend is a stronger ARI team of late but CIN is still a solid defense.
7) HOU v. IND - Houston seems to have declined quite a bit without a decent QB or Andre Johnson but face an IND team that may be improving with Orlovsky but hasn't proven themselves as winners yet. HOU has had 4 below average games and 7/15 break out games and is still a defense hard to sit.
8) DAL v. PHI - PHI has played much stronger since Vick's return but still giving out above average games. DAL hasn't had many break out weeks but plenty of average weeks. This is more based on sacks and turnovers potential than anything.
9) CAR v. TB - Carolina isn't a stellar defense but have 2 break out games in their last 5 and an above average outing. But they also face TB who has given the 3rd most points and have given 4 of their last 5 as above average games and two 20+ point outings. This is a gamble but a cute one.
10) WAS v. MIN - Washington hasn't fared well as a defense since the early weeks but shocked the Giants for their first break out game since week 4. MIN has given out a lot of above average games and break out games in the last 6 weeks.

Other considerations
DET v. SD - Det has cooled off considerably and SD has become much better of late. I'd approach this one with caution. However, the sacks/turnovers arithmettic on this one is 3rd best in the league.
NYG v. NYJ - This has a highly favorable sacks/turnovers ratio. The Giants haven't had a blow up week since mid-season but the jets have given out the fourth most fantasy defense points this season. Still, they also have given out 3, 1, 1 and 19 in their last 4 games. A gamble but one that may pay off.
MIN v. WAS - This also shows up by sacks/turnovers potential. WAS has definitely played better with Grossman's return and only one break out in teh last 5 weeks. MIN has not had a break out since week 5 and hasn't played very well as a defense this year. But the combination of sacks/turnovers looks favorable here.

PASSING AND RUSHING DEFENSE:

The NFL ranks passing or rushing defense based on yards per game. However, from a fantasy perspective, TDs and turnovers are weighted much more heavily than yards in most fantasy leagues. Thus, the NFL's ranking doesn't always make sense. The following fantasy passing ranking is based on 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD and -2 per turnover. It does NOT take into account the matchup for the week.

PASSING ON THE LEFT, RUSHING ON THE RIGHT:

SF is my number 1 rushing defense, they are ranked number 1 by the NFL, have yielded opposing rushers an average of only 5.7 ppg but have faced the weakest rushing schedule of the year.

Image

Once more, SF has failed to yield a rushing TD now in their 15th week! This is truly a bizarre abberation and one has to wonder if the odds of this streak breaking is now getting higher than the odds of it continuing on. Baltimore slipped a rank based on Ryan Mathews breaking out on them. SEA has slowly climbed up while CIN has slowly drifted down. TB continues to be fun to run against. For passing, BAL still takes the top spot offering an average of only 10.2 ppg to opposing QBs. HOU yielded 2 scores to Cam Newton but on average has been very tough to play against. SF has yielded 240 ypg to opponents but only 18 TD and they have 21 picks in 14games. That's barely more than one TD per game. PIT has yielded 15 TD in 14 games but only has 10 picks. ARI is also underrated by the NFL but have yielded a suprisingly low 14 passing TD which is an average of only one per game. NE and GB, despite having started the year as the 31st and 32nd passing defenses, have slowly moved higher on the ladder to now 23rd and 25th suggesting that as the season wore on, they've played like a midling passing defense. SD is ranked 6th by the NFL because of the few yards they yield at 201 per game but they have surrendered 24 TDs this season through the air.

Next week I'm on vacation so this should be the last one for the season. Thanks to everyone for their support and have a great playoffs and off-season!
-Prince_45243
prince_45243
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy Expert
Posts: 1637
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby marik-cccp » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:18 pm

I am currently starting Bears and have started them all year long. But going against Packers in the playoffs I am having my doubts.

I have two other choices with Redskins or Lions defense. My gut is telling me to play Skins. Any recommendations? Thanks
marik-cccp
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 9
Joined: 20 Dec 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby hawkeye63 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:52 pm

I could not believe that i benched 49ers Def who played so great last night :-) . Now they play at SeaHawk, do you think they play better than Houston Def Vs Indy or Tenn Vs Jax? Cin Def may get trouble with Ariz, dont you think Prince_45234? Thanks.
hawkeye63
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 72
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 15 Nov 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:53 am

marik-cccp wrote:I am currently starting Bears and have started them all year long. But going against Packers in the playoffs I am having my doubts.

I have two other choices with Redskins or Lions defense. My gut is telling me to play Skins. Any recommendations? Thanks


I'm curious as to whether Greg Jennings injury will open a strange new era for GB as an offense. However, even in defeat, GB only gave their opponent 5 points this week. CHI is the second highest scoring defense in the league and has scarcely had a bad game this season as a defense, even with injuries to major elements of their offense.

WAS plays MIN and is coming off a 13 point outing while MIN has been the 8th most generous offense to face off and in the past 6 weeks has given 14+ points four times. With AP back, despite a pedestrian outing, things did seem to quiet down considerably for MIN.

DET plays SD - SD has been fairly hot of late and just beat up an impressive BAL defense. The sacks/turnovers ratio looks very favorable for this matchup but much relies on Rivers throwing picks of which he's thrown none in the past 4 games.

Although CHI didn't look stellar, they are the number 2 or 3 defense in most leagues and have had above average games against potent offenses. I think of your options, I'd probably stick with them.

hawkeye63 wrote:I could not believe that i benched 49ers Def who played so great last night :-) . Now they play at SeaHawk, do you think they play better than Houston Def Vs Indy or Tenn Vs Jax? Cin Def may get trouble with Ariz, dont you think Prince_45234? Thanks.

SF is worth starting again this week. They are the highest scoring defense in most leagues and have had only 1-2 below average games all year and 8/14 games as break out games. SEA is on a hot streak but of your options, I think is still the best bet. Just to go through your other options, I do like CIN v. ARI still. CIN has a solid defense and although they'll have their hands full, Beanie typically struggles against top 10 rushing defenses. HOU v. IND would ordinarily be a tight bet but IND has made a liar out of me 3 times in the past 4 games. I'm much more hesitant to pull that trigger over SF v. SEA. JAC can give out some pretty beast games but TEN looked pretty darn awful vs. IND last week. Unless you have some instinct or intuition about one of the others, I'd probably stick with SF.
-Prince_45243
prince_45243
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy Expert
Posts: 1637
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:04 am

Yahoo rankings:
1) PIT v. STL
2) BAL v. CLE
3) GB v. CHI
4) TEN v. JAC
5) HOU @ IND
6) SF @ SEA
7) CIN v. ARI
8) SEA v. SF
9) WAS v. MIN
10) NYJ v. NYG
Analyzer:
1) SF v. SEA
2) GB v. CHI
3) BAL v. CLE
4) PIT v. STL
5) NE v. MIA
6) CIN v. ARI
7) HOU v. IND
8) DAL v. PHI
9) CAR v. TB
10) WAS v. MIN

YAHOO AND ANALYZER: SF, GB, BAL, PIT, NE, CIN, HOU, WAS
YAHOO ONLY: SEA, NYJ
ANALYZER ONLY: DAL, CAR

Last week there was much more disagreement between the rankings but this week, 8/10 are the same picks with disagreement only in the bottom rankings. Yahoo chose SEA v. SF. SEA is now the 5th best defense in most leagues and have had 4 of their last 5 as break out games facing a SF offense that has only given out 3 break out games but also given out 8/14 games as BELOW average games. SEA's break out games of late were against CHI last week, STL, the week before, PHI the week before that and then STL two weeks before PHI. I'm a little hesitant to say that SF is as bad as all of those teams have been. Only PHI is a midling offense among those, STL has given out the most points to all defenses this year and CHI has given out the 6th most points in the league and the most in the last 4 weeks of break out games. Still, that's an interesting pick. NYJ v. NYG isn't a bad pick either. NYJ are the 7th most produtctive defense and the giants ahve given two break out games in their last 5. But there wasn't anything spectacular about that matchup and it's arguable that the Giants have a better shot at a break out day than the jets.

I had chosen DAL over PHI. They are actually the second highest matchup when looking at sacks and turnovers which are the best predictor of a break out game. I think it's a gamble on my part to put them up there but I do have some faith in the s/to metric :)

And CAR is probably just crazy talk. CAR has had 2 of their last 5 as break out games but two below average games. But TB has given out the 3rd most points in the league including three 9+ point games in the last 4. They seem broken to me and although another gambling bet, I still think it's an interesting one to put up there.
-Prince_45243
prince_45243
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy Expert
Posts: 1637
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby marik-cccp » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:11 am

Thanks Prince, nice analogy!
marik-cccp
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 9
Joined: 20 Dec 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby Pl3onner » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:40 am

Hey Prince, last time I'll ask for help! Championship game. Do you like Houston D or Packers D this week? Indy scared me last week but Houston is much more solid than Tennessee. But I feel like a pick 6 could be likely against a new QB for Chicago. Last time these teams played each other GB scored 8 and Houston scored 17, but these teams are completely different now. Thoughts?
Pl3onner
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 307
Joined: 26 Sep 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby ramble2 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:46 am

Like you, I'm wary of DET this week. Rivers has been playing better, and I'm not sure I see the picks coming this week.

I'm leaning towards NE for my championship game. My hesitation is that MIA, like SD, has been on a bit of an upswing over the last half of the season. I see NE on your list, but not Yahoo's.

Other FA DEF pickups this week in my league include SEA, TEN, and DEN. Think TEN or DEN might be nice sneaky picks this week? Would you rank either over NE?

Thanks!
ramble2
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar

Posts: 364
(Past Year: 32)
Joined: 27 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Salt Lake

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby robotninja » Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:53 pm

So i have stockpiled several quality defenses but it seems like they all have been mediocre as of late or are playing a team on the rise. Most of them are ranked in yours and yahoo's top ten so I am really confused.

Cin vs Az Cin is good but AZ has been playing well

Hou @ Indy Looked like a great matchup a few weeks ago but Orlovsky seems to be providing a spark, plus i hate thursday games, and without Wade Philips Hou has been underacheiving.

Ten vs Jac Probably the best matchup but with no Ten has been inconsisant and not playing that well.

Den @ Buf Of my choices Den has been playing the best but you never know what you are going to get with Buffalo and they have been much better at home than on the road all season long.

BONUS Week 17 where I am hopefully playing for the championship.

Cin vs Bal
Hou vs Ten
Ten vs Hou
Den vs KC

Man I think I am going to go after an elite defense next year so i dont have to think about this so darn much. Thanks for all the help and best wishes for a championship and off season to you as well.
10 Team Std Scoring No PPR
QB Stafford
RB Spiller
RB Morris
WR Nelson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR/TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Ridley
K and Def by committee
Min and Hartley

Bench
A Brown (pit)
Bernard Pierce
Roy Helu
Bryce Brown
Mark Ingram
Marlon Brown
robotninja
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 720
(Past Year: 29)
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:38 pm

Pl3onner wrote:Hey Prince, last time I'll ask for help! Championship game. Do you like Houston D or Packers D this week? Indy scared me last week but Houston is much more solid than Tennessee. But I feel like a pick 6 could be likely against a new QB for Chicago. Last time these teams played each other GB scored 8 and Houston scored 17, but these teams are completely different now. Thoughts?


You have a couple of nice choices there. GB would be the way I'd tip based on how generous CHI has been of late and I agree with you that a pick 6 would be a bit more likely. Orlovsky only has 2 picks in the last 3 weeks (none last week).

ramble2 wrote:Like you, I'm wary of DET this week. Rivers has been playing better, and I'm not sure I see the picks coming this week.

I'm leaning towards NE for my championship game. My hesitation is that MIA, like SD, has been on a bit of an upswing over the last half of the season. I see NE on your list, but not Yahoo's.

Other FA DEF pickups this week in my league include SEA, TEN, and DEN. Think TEN or DEN might be nice sneaky picks this week? Would you rank either over NE?

Thanks!

You're right, they have TEN v. JAC on their list and I have NE v. MIA on mine. Thought we both called NE.
TEN has been pretty cold as a defense with a mess of below average games of late and JAC did give out 20 points last week but also a bunch of poor outings in the last 5 weeks. I'm not that fond of it myself but as you point out, Yahoo called that as a possible.

Wow, DEN vs. BUF really does look like a savvy pick. Nice detection there. Prior to NE, DEN had 6 above average games in a row with 3 break out games and BUF has given out a good number of break out games as well the last 6-7 weeks.

It's a tough call between DEN and NE. I don't have any sort of statistic or intuition on it. I think I lean towards NE but not so much that I couldn't start DEN and that might be that it didn't catch my eye originally.

robotninja wrote:Cin vs Az Cin is good but AZ has been playing well

Hou @ Indy Looked like a great matchup a few weeks ago but Orlovsky seems to be providing a spark, plus i hate thursday games, and without Wade Philips Hou has been underacheiving.

Ten vs Jac Probably the best matchup but with no Ten has been inconsisant and not playing that well.

Den @ Buf Of my choices Den has been playing the best but you never know what you are going to get with Buffalo and they have been much better at home than on the road all season long.

BONUS Week 17 where I am hopefully playing for the championship.

Cin vs Bal

Hou vs Ten
Ten vs Hou
Den vs KC

I lost last week so I'm out of the championship game. SF did fine for me but my opponent had Brees 5 TD day to my Cam Newton and company.

I'm a little afraid of TEN v. JAC myself but you're the second person to have raised it as a possibility along with Yahoo calling it. Perhaps that's saying something :).

HOU v. IND is a nice choice to have frankly. IND, despite their win last week, isn't quite a proven offense to me as yet and HOU had won 7 in a row before losing to CAR last week. I'm not sure if one game for either team is enough to call a trend any more than callling it a bump in the road. Of your options, I like it the best.

ARI has won 6 of their last 7, losing once to SF but also beating them several weeks ago. They did play STL twice that time frame, PHI and DAL as well but truly SF was the only top 10 defense in that stretch. CIN has struggled recently with losses in 4 of their last 6 games coming to PIT twice, baltimore and houston. I agree that CIN may struggle vs. ARI despite the other predictors.

And finally DEN@BUF. Someone else mentioned that one and I think it is a nice pick as well although neither Yahoo or the analyzer detected it. I feel pretty comfy with HOU v. IND despite having fallen flat on that last week with TEN.

For week 17, so far I like DEN v. KC. I'm still not entirely sure how GB lost to KC but all other statistical evidence is that DEN should fare well vs. KC.

Good luck everyone, signing off likely until after Jan. 1st.

-prince
-Prince_45243
prince_45243
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy Expert
Posts: 1637
(Past Year: 26)
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Next

Return to Who to Start/Bench

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 13:12 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact