There is a pretty clear and consistent track record of running backs coming back less than a year when an ACL is concerned, it ain't pretty (http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story/09000d ... back-stats
) There is no way I take him first round in any league. I might take him late in rd 2 in a keeper league, but round 3 is the spot I'd like to take him.
You usually don't win fantasy leagues by your first round pick, but you can absolutely blow as season based on your 1st pick. Round 1 for me has to come with as few question marks as possible. AP is going to have them.