As any veteran fantasy player knows, draft day is unpredictable beyond belief. But ADP data can help you unearth under-the-radar gems, and avoid reaching for overrated bums. We’ve yet to even reach the AFC/NFC Championship games, but my one track mind is already thinking ahead to what 2012 fantasy drafts have in store. Below, I’ll [...]
I can't see myself taking Brees/Rodgers in the first. The second round is a possibility, but the depth at that position is too good to pass up a top 5 WR or top 10 RB if one has fallen to you.
I think the most interesting development this offseason will be where everyone ranks the top tight ends. There is decent depth at the position, but how early will Gronk/Graham go? Those guys were the difference makers on a lot of championship teams this year. I remember back when Gates\Gonzo (is it strange that all 4 of those names start with G?) were lighting it up, they would generally go anywhere from 35th-40th. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gronk/Graham slip into the 25-30 range. They seem like sure-fire picks to me. Big bodies that aren't as big of an injury risk. You could make an argument that defenses will key on them, but lets be honest, that's probably been happening since week 3. Think the Broncos didn't know Gronk was Brady's favourite weapon? Doesn't seem to matter.
Anyway I'm rambling... anybody else have thoughts on what the "year of the tight end" will do to the fantasy offseason?
For me, a 1st round pick should be a sure thing (barring injury). Brees and Rodgers are sure things, and while the QB position is deep, the top 3-4 QBs still significantly outscored the rest (at least they did in my league).
There's no way I'm banking on Marshawn Lynch having a repeat season, so there's no way I use a 1st round pick on him. And after Mccoy, Rice, and Foster there really are no RBs that I would trust enough to use a 1st round pick on.
If Brees, Rodgers, Rice, McCoy, MJD or Foster are there, you better take one of them. Maybe Adrian, see how his rehab goes. After that, Megatron, Stafford (a little more scary with that shoulder), Newton.
All that being said, Gronk and Graham should get real consideration IMHO. I know the thought is no TE in rounds 1 or 2, but realistically, he outscored all but 5 non QB's in standard leagues and in most PPR's was only outscored by Rice.
If I am picking 10-12 in a snake draft, I think I really have to consider Gronk with that 2nd pick, depending on who is there. Hard to give away all those points. I see no way he will be there when my next picks roll around at that spot.
Graham might be there at round 3, but maybe not.
This will be interesting to see how it plays out next year.
CRob44 wrote:ill never take a qb early ever. i took stafford this year and in 2012 ill find me another gem later in the draft like i always do.
Yep, I mean how much later were guys like Stafford, Newton, Eli, Ryan, etc taken than the "top" guys like Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Vick (who finished behind the other mentioned guys overall because of injury like most predicted). Answer is, minimum 4-5 rounds later in most cases and you can get comparable production out of them for the most part. I think this year was a bit different as well as you saw the issues defenses had more than offenses without an off season to help them out. I think the chances are we won't see quite as high numbers as we saw this year with the crazy passing numbers next year as we've seen before that seasons like this don't get repeated by the same guys very often.
Considering also that you'll always have guys coming off some injury plagued seasons who will drop in drafts along with guys who are "breakout" candidates as well and you'll always have options in the middle rounds to choose from who can put up top numbers. I'm sure guys like Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and the like will be available in middle rounds and then there will be the upside guys like Andy Dalton, Matt Flynn, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, Matt Cassel, Sam Bradford, Kyle Orton who can be had in the late rounds and are capable of at least putting up some decent numbers. Plenty of options to choose from I think.
I'll go against the grain here. I don't know if it's my league settings but out of the five years I've been playing fantasy football I won twice.
My quarterbacks: Peyton Manning in '09 Drew Brees in '11.
This position is HUGE...especially due to the new kickoff rule that leads to less run-backs and more drives, more yardage-to-be-had from lines of scrimmage. Just look at the passing records shattered by this years' QBs. Not having a strong QB can be crippling. Banking on Brees' huge numbers all year was so important to giving me healthy outputs week in and week out...not too many duds, which cause playoff losses.
I think having a stud QB is underrated. Winning it all we get our choice as to where we want to draft this coming year. I'm thinking 3-7 because I feel like I need any of Brees, Brady or Rodgers with that first pick and then snagging the next best RB/WR on the way back around...of course it helps having RB/WR keepers, we keep three.
mattb47 wrote:Yep, I mean how much later were guys like Stafford, Newton, Eli, Ryan, etc taken than the "top" guys like Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Vick (who finished behind the other mentioned guys overall because of injury like most predicted). Answer is, minimum 4-5 rounds later in most cases and you can get comparable production out of them for the most part.
Newton was a once-in-a-decade late-rounder/waiver pickup in terms of production. Also, I would be laughed out of a room for saying Skelton (14.7 ppg in my league) was "comparable" to Eli (18.6 ppg), but that was the point difference between Stafford (22.5 ppg)and Eli. And of course the difference between Rodgers and Stafford was just as big. If you had Eli/Ryan as your QB you had a lot of points to make up against the elite QB owners.
QBs are also a lot safer. If you drafted Charles, AP, McFadden, Forte, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson you were most likely screwed. And very good RBs pop up mid-late season every year (K. Smith, Helu, Lynch [if dropped], R. Bush, Spiller), whereas QBs almost never do. And factor in later picks like Sproles, FJax (before injury), M. Bush, Matthews, B. Wells and there's a good argument to be made for taking one of the top QBs in the 1st or early second round.
I'm not saying you should definitely take a QB in the 1st, but to say you will NEVER take a QB without considering the point differentials and the other issues mentioned above doesn't seem like the best strategy. Let's say you have the 5th pick next year and Foster, Rice, McCoy, Megatron are gone. Who are you taking? MJD after a 343-carry season? AP coming off of injury? I think Rodgers there is a no-brainer. Then I'd say Brees, Brady, Newton, MJD, probably followed by Stafford. After that you start rolling the dice with the injured RBs and the Wes Welkers of the world.
For what it's worth, I passed on the early QBs this year (5 of 10 draft position), drafted Ryan and dropped him after I claimed Newton and won my league fairly easily (also had Foster and Megatron).