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Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

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Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby JimiRayThunderaxe » Mon May 28, 2012 9:29 pm

Non ppr redraft, how do you think he will do this year?

He had a few games there where it looked like he was going to break out into top three territory.

... But the he got injured. If memory serves, I believe he had durability issues his rookie year as well.

There is also the Norv Turner factor. Anyone who ha LT as a keeper knows what hell it was to watch Norv steer the running game. During one year in standard scoring leagues LT finished with 300 fantasy points yet somehow only topped 20 points in a game twice. I can't handle another season of that.

So, who thinks Mathews will stay healthy and crush it?
If so, why?
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby Jason497 » Mon May 28, 2012 9:58 pm

I'm confused by your post, so you are saying scoring consistancy is a bad thing? You'd rather have a guy with 6 monster games and 10 stinkers? You'd prefer him to be the Vincent Jackson of RBs? Most people prefer the opposite.

San Diego lost Mike Tolbert and added no one. I think the added workload and Goalline carries will be huge for Mathews. As long as he stays healthy he is a lock for a top 10 finish, right now I think his ADP is around 4th or 5th RB off the board and that seems about right for me. He averages 4.7 yards a rush and had 50 catches last year, he's one of the most explosive backs in the game.

Norv's always been a positive for RB production and has always favored a workhorse back, dating back to names like Emmitt Smith, Stephen Davis, Frank Gore, Ladainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams and even Lamont Jordan had a top 10 season under him in Oakland.

Mathews will be given every chance to succeed from a front office that traded up to 12th in the 1st round to snag him, a year before the rookie wage scale went into effect.

It's impossible to predict injuries so I won't even try, I'll just go out on the limb that says his per game numbers will be elite.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby BurritoBoy » Tue May 29, 2012 1:48 am

Jason497 wrote:I'm confused by your post, so you are saying scoring consistancy is a bad thing? You'd rather have a guy with 6 monster games and 10 stinkers? You'd prefer him to be the Vincent Jackson of RBs? Most people prefer the opposite.

San Diego lost Mike Tolbert and added no one. I think the added workload and Goalline carries will be huge for Mathews. As long as he stays healthy he is a lock for a top 10 finish, right now I think his ADP is around 4th or 5th RB off the board and that seems about right for me. He averages 4.7 yards a rush and had 50 catches last year, he's one of the most explosive backs in the game.

Norv's always been a positive for RB production and has always favored a workhorse back, dating back to names like Emmitt Smith, Stephen Davis, Frank Gore, Ladainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams and even Lamont Jordan had a top 10 season under him in Oakland.

Mathews will be given every chance to succeed from a front office that traded up to 12th in the 1st round to snag him, a year before the rookie wage scale went into effect.

It's impossible to predict injuries so I won't even try, I'll just go out on the limb that says his per game numbers will be elite.


My thoughts exactly on all points. I would much rather have consistency out of my top RB (which I think Mathews can be) than hit-or-miss. VJax instantly comes to mind. Barring an injury, I feel totally confident that Mathews can be a top 10 RB. He has the talent, situation and opportunity to excel. Another excellent point made about Norv's impact with a "workhorse" back.

Mathews was the 9th ranked RB in ESPN standard, and in a mock draft conducted by the so called "experts" on ESPN about 3 weeks ago he was the 7th RB taken (right after Forte, I woulda taken him before Forte though), so a top 10 finish is pretty much expected of the guy.

He only missed 2 games from injury last year, but as long as he stays healthy, I expect him to crush it, as you stated.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby JimiRayThunderaxe » Tue May 29, 2012 8:02 am

Haha, I can understand how you guys may think I am nuts for being frustrated by a 300 point 15-points-a-game RB. Understandable. But I will would put $$$ down that neither of you had LT after Norv took over. LT at that time was drafted with pick 1.1 to be your game-changer and championship-winner. 15 points does not get that done. VJax didn't throw up 300 points. Ever. Nor was VJax, DJax, Ochocinco or any other Wide Receiver drafted to be a stud RB. Apples and oranges. So, yes, I guess I DO AGREE that I when I burn a first round pick (particularly a 1.1) I would rather have a stud 300 point Running Back that spreads those points out over some 20-30 point games and a few 5-15 point games rather than a stud 300 point Running Back that gets me 15 points a game and only clears 20 points (barely if I remember right) twice. Speaking from experience, I feel like the later cost me a lot of games. You'll find a lot of LT owners that would agree.

It's a good question as to whether this is right or not and probably worth a thread of it's own.

Thinking you guys are right regarding the injury concerns: can't predict it, so forget it and go for the talent.

Ironically Rotoworld's lead article this morning is "Ryan Mathews can be the #1 back":

http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40586 ... an-be-no-1
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby TruNinerFan » Tue May 29, 2012 9:11 am

I love mathews this year. I think he will be a top 5 Rb, IF he stays healthy. He has no competition for carries. When Tolbert left for Carolina, mathews shot up my draft board. he has had durability issues, but I think the risk will be worth the reward.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby murphysxm » Tue May 29, 2012 10:02 am

TruNinerFan wrote:I love mathews this year. I think he will be a top 5 Rb, IF he stays healthy. He has no competition for carries. When Tolbert left for Carolina, mathews shot up my draft board. he has had durability issues, but I think the risk will be worth the reward.


I have him #4 in my PPR rankings, I would probably put MJD ahead of him in Non-PPR's. The only thing that will stop him from being a complete stud is missing time.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby Jason497 » Tue May 29, 2012 10:23 am

JimiRayThunderaxe wrote:Haha, I can understand how you guys may think I am nuts for being frustrated by a 300 point 15-points-a-game RB. Understandable. But I will would put $$$ down that neither of you had LT after Norv took over. LT at that time was drafted with pick 1.1 to be your game-changer and championship-winner. 15 points does not get that done. VJax didn't throw up 300 points. Ever. Nor was VJax, DJax, Ochocinco or any other Wide Receiver drafted to be a stud RB. Apples and oranges. So, yes, I guess I DO AGREE that I when I burn a first round pick (particularly a 1.1) I would rather have a stud 300 point Running Back that spreads those points out over some 20-30 point games and a few 5-15 point games rather than a stud 300 point Running Back that gets me 15 points a game and only clears 20 points (barely if I remember right) twice. Speaking from experience, I feel like the later cost me a lot of games. You'll find a lot of LT owners that would agree.

It's a good question as to whether this is right or not and probably worth a thread of it's own.

Thinking you guys are right regarding the injury concerns: can't predict it, so forget it and go for the talent.

Ironically Rotoworld's lead article this morning is "Ryan Mathews can be the #1 back":

http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40586 ... an-be-no-1


Idk, I didn't own him the season you are talking about but I had him many other times before that and I never had any complaints. The problem is if the rest of your team is so miserable that you are depending on 1 player to win it for you every week I can see where you'd have an issue I guess, but I still prefer reliability over boom/bust every day, even at RB1. Just a difference of opinion I guess.

My next question is you hate Norv Turner for RBs over 1 year in 2007 where the back was still probably top 3 in scoring?

Emmitt Smith had 5 games over 20 pts in 1991, 6 games over 20 in 1992, 6 games in 1993.

Terry Allen had 5 games of 20 or more in 1995, then 7 games in 1996. He got old and struggled to stay healthy the next 2 seasons, not Norv's fault.

Stephen Davis had 7 games of 20 or more in 1999. He had 5 games of 20 or more in 2000.

He coached a rookie LT in 2001 and he only had 2 games over 20.

He coached Ricky Williams in 2002-2003, got 8 games and 3 games in those years.

Lamont Jordan only got him 2 games over 20 in 2005 but he was a marginal talent and it was the Raiders.

Frank Gore got him 7 games over 20 in 2006 on a horrendous 49ers team.

Then LT's 2007 season that you already documented happened, and 2008 he had 4 games of 20 or over even though he was starting to decline after 7 straight years of 300+ carries. 2009 was when he fell off and was replaced thereafter so I throw that one out.

2010 Mathews was a rookie who only played in 12 games and started 9, but him and Tolbert combined for 18 touchdowns and combined for 3 games over 20 pts. Even in 2011 in another injury marred season where Tolbert was heavily involved Mathews had 3 games over 20 by himself.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby Jason497 » Tue May 29, 2012 10:24 am

In closing, maybe the guy you should have an issue with is Ladainian and not Turner?

Well, I don't think you should have an issue with either but the numbers seem to indicate that when Turner has a top level back he gives you those multiple huge games more often than not.

I'd love to see you find another coach who has had that much production at the RB position.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby JimiRayThunderaxe » Tue May 29, 2012 3:20 pm

Pretty empassioned defense of Norv!

Cowboys fan? ;)

Yes, I am being a little biased and probably should put a little more of the blame on a declining LT.

But consider: Three of the backs you mention are HOF talents. Most of the rest were above average talents. How many other coaches have coached that many different backs that are that talented? Stephen Davis + Terry Allen? Kudos to Norv. Or, is it becuase their attempts were higher than most backs in the NFL? (I honestly don't know). If the attempts of these two were around the average then that is a great job by Nov. If their attempts were in the top 5 then should production not have followed? I think the door swings both ways here: perhaps (okay, probably) I am being too hard on Norv and not on LT but by the same token if Emmit Smith, Frank Gore or Rickey Williams etc. had NOT done well under Norv (or anyone) that would be a bit of an indictment wouldn't it?

Second, watching LT those years was PAINFUL from a fantasy football perspective: throwing 4 times and going four and out from first and goal; Up the middle 9 out of 10 first downs; not getting LT in open space etc. Painful stuff. From an NFL perspective not so good either; if you are what your record says you are and the Chargers have declined every year since Norv took them to the AFC championship game. These are not the kinds of things that make me think Mathews will be used to his fullest or that I am going to enjoy watching him as my first round pick the way I should.

Finally, yes, I did have a solid team other than LT: went to the semi finals that year and I was in the points race as well. I beat many of the teams I played but I ALWAYS had to hope one of my later round picks would go off when the other team's first rounder would blow up. LT NOT ONCE kept pace with another stud when they went off and that is a problem which made that year so frustrating for those of us who burned the 1.1 pick on him. You yourself seem to agree with the importance of having your stud score big points in a game by pointing out how many 20 point + games Norv's RBs have had over the years. It could very well be that statistical analysis proves me wrong and spreading 300 points across 16 games at 15-18 points a game is more valuable than having a few stinkers mixed in with some monster games but I will take the later without rock-solid proof to the contrary. I am not saying Mathew's points will necessarily fall this way but it is an red flag to me that there will be more frustrating games and points left on the table then there would be with another coach.

Bottom line, yes I am picking on Norv a bit but there are plenty of coaches I would rather see be in charge of the running game. Particularly since SD is a sinkning ship and I am quite sure you will here plently of negative commentary on Norv this year to potentially accompany some monumentally frustrating games.
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Re: Ryan Mathews - dud or stud?

Postby Jason497 » Tue May 29, 2012 3:40 pm

JimiRayThunderaxe wrote:Pretty empassioned defense of Norv!

Cowboys fan? ;)

Yes, I am being a little biased and probably should put a little more of the blame on a declining LT.

But consider: Three of the backs you mention are HOF talents. Most of the rest were above average talents. How many other coaches have coached that many different backs that are that talented? Stephen Davis + Terry Allen? Kudos to Norv. Or, is it becuase their attempts were higher than most backs in the NFL? (I honestly don't know). If the attempts of these two were around the average then that is a great job by Nov. If their attempts were in the top 5 then should production not have followed? I think the door swings both ways here: perhaps (okay, probably) I am being too hard on Norv and not on LT but by the same token if Emmit Smith, Frank Gore or Rickey Williams etc. had NOT done well under Norv (or anyone) that would be a bit of an indictment wouldn't it?

Second, watching LT those years was PAINFUL from a fantasy football perspective: throwing 4 times and going four and out from first and goal; Up the middle 9 out of 10 first downs; not getting LT in open space etc. Painful stuff. From an NFL perspective not so good either; if you are what your record says you are and the Chargers have declined every year since Norv took them to the AFC championship game. These are not the kinds of things that make me think Mathews will be used to his fullest or that I am going to enjoy watching him as my first round pick the way I should.

Finally, yes, I did have a solid team other than LT: went to the semi finals that year and I was in the points race as well. I beat many of the teams I played but I ALWAYS had to hope one of my later round picks would go off when the other team's first rounder would blow up. LT NOT ONCE kept pace with another stud when they went off and that is a problem which made that year so frustrating for those of us who burned the 1.1 pick on him. You yourself seem to agree with the importance of having your stud score big points in a game by pointing out how many 20 point + games Norv's RBs have had over the years. It could very well be that statistical analysis proves me wrong and spreading 300 points across 16 games at 15-18 points a game is more valuable than having a few stinkers mixed in with some monster games but I will take the later without rock-solid proof to the contrary. I am not saying Mathew's points will necessarily fall this way but it is an red flag to me that there will be more frustrating games and points left on the table then there would be with another coach.

Bottom line, yes I am picking on Norv a bit but there are plenty of coaches I would rather see be in charge of the running game. Particularly since SD is a sinkning ship and I am quite sure you will here plently of negative commentary on Norv this year to potentially accompany some monumentally frustrating games.


49ers fan actually.

I just used the 20+ point figure because that's the stat you used to say Norv was bad for fantasy backs. Then again is it really fair to expect him to churn out #1 overall fantasy RBs every year? The fact that he's even being discussed that way just shows how good his influence is there.

It's a double edged sword, yes if your opponent had a Shaun Alexander 5 TD blowup game you might have been screwed, but if LT gave you his typical 19 points and your opponent's star had one of his 10+ stinker games you were sitting pretty, and it obviously didn't hurt you that bad if you were in the playoffs with him and in the race for points lead. And besides that LT was far and away the best fantasy producer that year besides the Moss/Brady combo getting 23 and 50 TDs, Westbrook was the only other RB within 70 points of him and he wasn't a guy who exploded for monster 5 TD fantasy games either. So I still don't understand why you were so butthurt over LT's 2007 season all things considered, he was very clearly worth 1.1

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/y ... antasy.htm

It's an interesting debate but in the end I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.
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