by Those About To Rock » Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:32 pm
So, we have a lot of time before our draft, there are plenty of players to trade for, and I have a stacked roster. I'd like to net some picks, or possibly some better players, before we draft. We have months to ride this out, so I was hoping maybe someone would give me some thoughts I hadn't had. We have 8 teams, I keep 5 players, here is my roster:
Cam Newton (Car - QB) Calvin Johnson (Det - WR) A. J. Green (Cin - WR) Ray Rice (Bal - RB) Arian Foster (Hou - RB) Jason Witten (Dal - TE) Rashard Mendenhall (Pit - RB) Adrian Peterson (Min - RB) Reggie Bush (Mia - RB) Torrey Smith (Bal - WR) Andre Johnson (Hou - WR) Ben Tate (Hou - RB) Fred Jackson (Buf - RB) Jason Hanson (Det - K) Green Bay (GB - DEF)
Newton, C. Johnson, Rice, Foster, Peterson, A. Johnson are all automatic keepers (wait, I only get 5!) AJ Green is someone I am extremely attached to Mendenhall is super solid F. Jackson was AMAZING pre-injury, and he's going into a new season! Reggie Bush was the 12th highest scoring RB in the fantasy realm last year Torrey Smith has crazy potential and was a rookie Witten and Tate are both not awful?
I think Foster loses some value with the loss of his FB, Peterson has been injured, but it's really hard to cut (trade) either of them.
If you're really attached to AJ Green, and am looking for some picks, I'd trade Andre Johnson for the top pick. Keeping Green and CJ, you don't need AJ so much IMO.
I dont think Mendenhall is solid anymore, so if he holds any value in your league, trade him for some picks. You definitely don't need him.
Look into getting a very reliable backup QB. The last thing you want is your sure-fire championship being dashed by an injury to Cam Newton. Remember, he is very physical. Trade Mendenhall for a QB maybe. OR AJ for someone like Cutler and another WR.
You're stacked at all the important positions, you only lack depth at QB really. I'd cover that base.
How many players/positions do you start? That could be a factor in deciding who to keep.
You're gonna keep Newton, Megatron, Foster and Rice for sure. Then it's a decision of do you want to have 3 RBs and 1 WR going into next year, or 2 RBs and 2 WRs. AP did have that injury, and the rule of thumb is with his type of injury it takes about 2 years to become fully healthy. With that in mind, his production might not be as high as we are used to from him. His name and reputation precedes him, so I would be willing to bet that you could get quite a haul in terms of upgrading draft picks for him. You should put Peterson on the block and see what you can get for him, seeing your roster I have no doubt that there are other teams who don't have the same caliber of RBs as you.
If I was in that situation, I would keep a second WR to balance out your roster, it would be between Andre or AJ Green. As you say, you have become attached to Green this year (I had him too, I totally understand the love). Andre isn't the same player he used to be, take away last year where he missed like half the season, and the years before his production and numbers have been slowly declining. I think I would probably pick Green because of upside.
You have a lot of good players that I'm sure other people would like to have. Put some on the trading block such as AP, Andre, Bush, Fred Jackson. You have a problem of too many quality players and can't keep enough of them. If enough people bite and give up picks, you might be able to snag a few of the players you lost in the draft with you improved picks
I'd go with the second option. 8 teams and 5 keepers per team, so in theory the top 40 players would be kept. So ask yourself, who isn't a top 40 player? I'd argue that Mendy, Bush, and Freddy J are not there, as well as a case could be made that Andre isnt there anymore. He could have a huge bounce back year, but I'd rather have someone else risk that over yourself, same with Peterson. There's bound to be someone to believe in AP, I just don't.
I'd keep 2 RBs and 2 WRs, because you have 2 top tier RBs already, and Bush/Mendy/Fred would be great to have as an RB3, but I feel like you could easily draft a replacement for them, if not one of those 3 themselves. You can't have just 1 stud WR, all the best ones will be kept (or they should be) already. I would keep Green with my 5th choice. I knew what kind of impact he had last year for my team, and barring a "sophomore slump" by Dalton, those numbers he had last year should be expected.
Trade away AP for a nice upgrade in quality of picks, and if you can't get what you feel is fair deal for your other players, then you can always release them back into the draft, and draft upgrades with your new, better picks.
With those players, I'm throwing Cam back... especially since it's an 8-team league.
If I were you, I'm keeping: Calvin AJ Green Foster Rice AP
I suppose you could make an argument for Andre Johnson over AP, but I like AP's long-term upside better. Cam finishes a distant 7th IMHO... and I love the guy.
As far as deals go... what can you upgrade to at this point? Outside of maybe trading AP and Cam for McCoy, you already have top players at each position. If you can deal players for picks, I would trade any of he other guys in a heartbeat.
I can trade players for picks. AP is going to carry a lot of value, but I'm not sure even the 1st overall is worth it (since I'd probably just pick up T. Richardson, who is unproven). AJ is probably going to get traded, not sure for what.
If I was looking to keep Cam, Rice, Foster, Calvin, and AJ Green, that gives me:
Bush, Jackson, AJ, AP to trade. I guess I don't know what I should expect for these guys in terms of draft picks. My 1st pick will still probably be the best RB available (taking a gamble on Richardson). The reason I'm probably going to keep Cam is that, despite the small size of the league, there have been a couple teams keeping 2 QBs and I've seen the 1st round be so QB vacant because people draft them so, so very highly. Most people seem to prioritize a couple of them before anything else (Stafford and Rodgers on one team, Vick and Brees on another) so if I drop Cam, I will only have to 1st round him anyways.
Those About To Rock wrote:I can trade players for picks. AP is going to carry a lot of value, but I'm not sure even the 1st overall is worth it (since I'd probably just pick up T. Richardson, who is unproven). AJ is probably going to get traded, not sure for what.
If I was looking to keep Cam, Rice, Foster, Calvin, and AJ Green, that gives me:
Bush, Jackson, AJ, AP to trade. I guess I don't know what I should expect for these guys in terms of draft picks. My 1st pick will still probably be the best RB available (taking a gamble on Richardson). The reason I'm probably going to keep Cam is that, despite the small size of the league, there have been a couple teams keeping 2 QBs and I've seen the 1st round be so QB vacant because people draft them so, so very highly. Most people seem to prioritize a couple of them before anything else (Stafford and Rodgers on one team, Vick and Brees on another) so if I drop Cam, I will only have to 1st round him anyways.
If you don't keep AP, why wouldn't he be worth the first overall pick? You don't get anything for him if you thrown him back.
Thanks for explaining how your league values QBs... that changes the dynamics, and I don't blame you for keeping Cam. It sure seems silly to keep 2 QBs when you can only start one... but whatever. Keeping Cam is the right move.
If I were you, I would try and trade everyone else you aren't keeping for pick upgrades. I would happily give AP for Richardson if I couldn't keep him. I would gladly combine AP and AJ for Richardson... whatever. But the ability to trade players for picks works to your huge advantage in maintaining a dominant squad.
What I would do personally is instead of just trying to move up in a round, I would try to move my rounds up if that makes any sense. Offer AP and a 2nd or 3rd for their 1st, AJ the same. Some of your lower tier guys like Mendehall, Jackson, Reggie, Witten etc. try to make your 5th or 6th rounder a 3rd or 4th (just numbers off the top of my head, but you get the idea). In my opinion that comes in with more value than simply going from 1.08 to 1.01.
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by Those About To Rock » Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:32 pm 
