So, I've been mulling this over for some time now and I could really use some input.
We all know the star RB theory. Create a team with stud RBs and then build up WRs and then QBs. The idea is that the difference in talent and points is much steeper at RB than WR and QB. IMO, a very solid way to play fantasy football.
HOWEVER. QBs are MUCH more likely to be playing and putting up big numbers come FF playoff time. Every year, it seems like it doesn't matter how the regular season goes, some random schmuck wins the playoffs. I went back at some of my leagues, and sure enough... they always had a top 5 QB.
So my question is this. Would it maybe be wiser to rank QBs higher on draft day since they are by far more reliable come the end of the season?
Not sure I buy that QB's are more reliable come play off time. I won a title last year because Aaron Rodgers didn't play down the stretch and I was smart enough to have picked Flynn up the week before so he couldn't start him against me. How many people lost a title the years the Colts pulled Manning out down the stretch? I just think what you are trying to predict is too fluid.
I would take Aaron Rodgers after McCoy, Foster, and Rice are all off the board. After Rodgers I would wait until the second round to grab a top 5 QB. I do think that after the first 5 QBs are off the board it is best to was it until the 7th or 8th round to grab a QB. So I would rank the top 5 QBs higher but not the second tier of Romo, Rivers and Vick higher. The top 5 QBs are very reliable down the stretch unless the league has a week 17 is the championship week which does not make sense to me since the majority of positions rest. The only game Rodgers missed last year was the week 17 game..
11stever11 wrote:I would take Aaron Rodgers after McCoy, Foster, and Rice are all off the board. After Rodgers I would wait until the second round to grab a top 5 QB. I do think that after the first 5 QBs are off the board it is best to was it until the 7th or 8th round to grab a QB. So I would rank the top 5 QBs higher but not the second tier of Romo, Rivers and Vick higher. The top 5 QBs are very reliable down the stretch unless the league has a week 17 is the championship week which does not make sense to me since the majority of positions rest. The only game Rodgers missed last year was the week 17 game..
I'd be wary of Rice. Lots of guys who hold out struggle throughout, or at least at the beginning of the season.
I'd also be careful of deciding on a round for finding a QB, as drafting should be reacting to what is happening. Once the first 2nd tier QB is taken, its time to follow suit. You want to be landing a QB in the Romo/Rivers/Manning category, not the Sanchez/Fitzpatrick/Flacco one.
As for a top QB, I would definitely take one of the top 3 in the first round (Newton and Stafford aren't proven enough, and even with the top 3, my advice above might apply to Brees), but not for the same reasons you are suggesting. I would take one of them since they are reliable fantasy studs who are going to perform throughout the season. RBs are quite injury and/or bust prone, and using your first round pick on such a risky position can be a recipe for a broken fantasy season.
11stever11 wrote:I would take Aaron Rodgers after McCoy, Foster, and Rice are all off the board. After Rodgers I would wait until the second round to grab a top 5 QB. I do think that after the first 5 QBs are off the board it is best to was it until the 7th or 8th round to grab a QB. So I would rank the top 5 QBs higher but not the second tier of Romo, Rivers and Vick higher. The top 5 QBs are very reliable down the stretch unless the league has a week 17 is the championship week which does not make sense to me since the majority of positions rest. The only game Rodgers missed last year was the week 17 game..
I'd be wary of Rice. Lots of guys who hold out struggle throughout, or at least at the beginning of the season.
I'd also be careful of deciding on a round for finding a QB, as drafting should be reacting to what is happening. Once the first 2nd tier QB is taken, its time to follow suit. You want to be landing a QB in the Romo/Rivers/Manning category, not the Sanchez/Fitzpatrick/Flacco one.
As for a top QB, I would definitely take one of the top 3 in the first round (Newton and Stafford aren't proven enough, and even with the top 3, my advice above might apply to Brees), but not for the same reasons you are suggesting. I would take one of them since they are reliable fantasy studs who are going to perform throughout the season. RBs are quite injury and/or bust prone, and using your first round pick on such a risky position can be a recipe for a broken fantasy season.
I agree about Rice but it is to early to tell how long or if he does stay out of training camp and how that will affect him. Right now he is going in the top three picks in the majority of leagues which makes sense right now. The situation will be important to monitor though. I do not agree that once the first 2nd tier QB comes off the board its time to follow suit. The second tier of quarterbacks is large in my opinion and taking Rivers in the 5th because Vick was taken right before does not make sense to me. There has been solid value in the 7th and 8th round with the mocks I have done and looking at ADP. RG3, Big Ben and Peyton Manning are all going in the 7th and 8th round and even if you miss those guys Cutler and Schuab are going in the 9th round. If all those QBs are taken by the 7th and 8th than the value at RB and WR would be fantastic. However I do not see all of tier 2 QBs taken by the 7th round.
Im still a believer in selecting rb's early......if the value is there. After the top 3 rb's, I'd still take CJ, Mathews and DMC over any QB or Calvin. QB's - taking Ryan, Rivers or Romo 4-5 rounds later is a no brainer in my book. I won a very competitive league last year with Ryan. Calvin ( the only possible 1st rounder ) I love as much as everyone else and no other wr comes close. I pulled Calvin @ 4 in the CRT mock that we just finished and I ended up hating my team. I made the best of my remaining picks, but I was not happy. Some of the wr's in the 5-6th rounds can easily end up in the top 20. As far as putting DMC in that earlier group, I think that anyone can get hurt and I know he has a history longer than most, but personally, I'll take the risk if I'm pick in the 7-8 range. He's that exlosive. I'll always adapt to the flow of the draft, but ideally, I'm trying to load up on rb/wr before Im grabbing qb/te. To each their own.
Mr.Joshua wrote:Im still a believer in selecting rb's early......if the value is there. After the top 3 rb's, I'd still take CJ, Mathews and DMC over any QB or Calvin. QB's - taking Ryan, Rivers or Romo 4-5 rounds later is a no brainer in my book. I won a very competitive league last year with Ryan. Calvin ( the only possible 1st rounder ) I love as much as everyone else and no other wr comes close. I pulled Calvin @ 4 in the CRT mock that we just finished and I ended up hating my team. I made the best of my remaining picks, but I was not happy. Some of the wr's in the 5-6th rounds can easily end up in the top 20. As far as putting DMC in that earlier group, I think that anyone can get hurt and I know he has a history longer than most, but personally, I'll take the risk if I'm pick in the 7-8 range. He's that exlosive. I'll always adapt to the flow of the draft, but ideally, I'm trying to load up on rb/wr before Im grabbing qb/te. To each their own.
I definitely see this. What if, like I expect may be happening a lot this year, there are 3 or 4 QBs drafted in the first round. In the second round do you try to jump on a second tier QB or do you wait for some of the 2nd tier guys come of the board and hope that you can still land one? OR like I plan to do in this case, do you go with some kind of QB by committee, two QB combo that you could alternate as a starter with later picks?
Clearly this is a debate that will go all the way to draft day. There are two sides with valid points, I err on the side of elite RB's being scarce this year, thus more valuable and will avoid taking a stud QB. Then you have the 11stever11's of the world that want to lock in the elite no-brainer QB and feel confident they can pick up RB value later.
Ironically the more I research and do mocks, I am almost swinging full circle back to the RB heavy early approach. I have seen such tremendous value in the round 6-10 range at both QB and WR, that there may be a case for avoiding both positions early. Time will tell.
I won my league last year with Aaron Rodgers and 3 "second tier" backs (Matthews, Sproles, and SJAX). My WR stud I got on draft day (Nicks) I traded for SJAX and used WR Victor Cruz and a combo of Miles Austin and Torrey Smith. This is a keeper league and there is no doubt that I will keep Rodgers. I don't expect lightning to strike twice but I fully expect to have a stud WR and a good RB available to me for picks 1.10 and 2.01. I am not sure that you need to concentrate on a single position but you absolutely need a stud (or near stud) at each of these positions (QB, WR, RB). Once you get these, pick for value and then work the league if you are not happy with the results. Remember that it is not who you get in the draft that wins the league. It is who you end with and how well you adjust to the flow of the season. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
For what it's worth: my buddy and his league broke down the winning teams for their Standard Scoring League from the 2004-2010 seasons and found the teams with a Stud RB won 75% of the time. Their opinion (which I agree with) is that there are maybe only six of these per season at this point (#1 2011 RB Ray RIce finished with 301 points where #7 RB Michael Turner had 191). Next they took the numbers for all the RBs and WRs over those seasons and determined that by changing to a 1/2 point-per-reception scoring format those who missed out on drafting a stud RB in the first round could still have a chance a player of similar significance in the first round.
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by BayCat » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:05 pm 
