Counter Argument to Star RB Strategy

[BayCat]

For what it's worth: my buddy and his league broke down the winning teams for their Standard Scoring League from the 2004-2010 seasons and found the teams with a Stud RB won 75% of the time. Their opinion (which I agree with) is that there are maybe only six of these per season at this point (#1 2011 RB Ray RIce finished with 301 points where #7 RB Michael Turner had 191).
Next they took the numbers for all the RBs and WRs over those seasons and determined that by changing to a 1/2 point-per-reception scoring format those who missed out on drafting a stud RB in the first round could still have a chance a player of similar significance in the first round.

Wow. That was very insightful. Thank you for posting that. Like I've said, I am all about the RB strategy, and now more than ever, I do not think that there is a better philosophy. Sometimes being the advocate of the strategy helps realize its significance though.

So I guess the next question is, when does the top tier end this year? When should the first QB/WR be drafted? I'm guessing that just about everyone has Rodgers as the top QB and Megatron as the top WR... So before them I currently have, but maybe not exactly in this order..

Aaron Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew
Chris Johnson
Ryan Matthews

And then Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson? Thoughts??

[Dawinner127]

For what it's worth: my buddy and his league broke down the winning teams for their Standard Scoring League from the 2004-2010 seasons and found the teams with a Stud RB won 75% of the time. Their opinion (which I agree with) is that there are maybe only six of these per season at this point (#1 2011 RB Ray RIce finished with 301 points where #7 RB Michael Turner had 191).
Next they took the numbers for all the RBs and WRs over those seasons and determined that by changing to a 1/2 point-per-reception scoring format those who missed out on drafting a stud RB in the first round could still have a chance a player of similar significance in the first round.

Wow. That was very insightful. Thank you for posting that. Like I've said, I am all about the RB strategy, and now more than ever, I do not think that there is a better philosophy. Sometimes being the advocate of the strategy helps realize its significance though.

So I guess the next question is, when does the top tier end this year? When should the first QB/WR be drafted? I'm guessing that just about everyone has Rodgers as the top QB and Megatron as the top WR... So before them I currently have, but maybe not exactly in this order..

Aaron Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew
Chris Johnson
Ryan Matthews

And then Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson? Thoughts??

From the few mocks I have done, I have noticed that my top 5 are always going to be this.
1) Foster, McCoy, Rice are 1 - 3 in no specific order.
2) When it comes to 4 and 5 I'm going with Rodgers or Megatron (haven't decided on which one yet, probably Megatron).

The 6 - 9 spot is what scares me. It is to early to reach for McFadden and I recently read that Tennessee thinks 25 carries will be to many for CJ4.24. I don't trust Mathews at all taking him 6 to 9 and MJD and that contract/hamstring really worries me.

I was stuck in spot 10 and 11 in two different mocks and I actually took McFadden in the first round followed by Brees and Brady, which I don't mind.

[murphysxm]

For what it's worth: my buddy and his league broke down the winning teams for their Standard Scoring League from the 2004-2010 seasons and found the teams with a Stud RB won 75% of the time. Their opinion (which I agree with) is that there are maybe only six of these per season at this point (#1 2011 RB Ray RIce finished with 301 points where #7 RB Michael Turner had 191).
Next they took the numbers for all the RBs and WRs over those seasons and determined that by changing to a 1/2 point-per-reception scoring format those who missed out on drafting a stud RB in the first round could still have a chance a player of similar significance in the first round.

Wow. That was very insightful. Thank you for posting that. Like I've said, I am all about the RB strategy, and now more than ever, I do not think that there is a better philosophy. Sometimes being the advocate of the strategy helps realize its significance though.

So I guess the next question is, when does the top tier end this year? When should the first QB/WR be drafted? I'm guessing that just about everyone has Rodgers as the top QB and Megatron as the top WR... So before them I currently have, but maybe not exactly in this order..

Aaron Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew
Chris Johnson
Ryan Matthews

And then Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson? Thoughts??

From the few mocks I have done, I have noticed that my top 5 are always going to be this.
1) Foster, McCoy, Rice are 1 - 3 in no specific order.
2) When it comes to 4 and 5 I'm going with Rodgers or Megatron (haven't decided on which one yet, probably Megatron).

The 6 - 9 spot is what scares me. It is to early to reach for McFadden and I recently read that Tennessee thinks 25 carries will be to many for CJ4.24. I don't trust Mathews at all taking him 6 to 9 and MJD and that contract/hamstring really worries me.

I was stuck in spot 10 and 11 in two different mocks and I actually took McFadden in the first round followed by Brees and Brady, which I don't mind.

What I don't get in this argument is that you don't trust Matthews at say 7, but DMC at 11 you like it. the only knock on Matthews is health and DMC is less trustworthy.

[Jason497]

In all fairness 16 games of Mcfadden >>> 16 games of Mathews.

Mathews has no Tolbert to contend with but Mcfadden has no Bush to contend with.

Mcfadden is the bigger injury risk though but also the more talented player. I have them ranked neck and neck.

[BayCat]

So please take this for what it's worth, but... I set up a points ranking system based on an average of the last three years and projected rankings from ESPN and fftoolbox. With the assumption that every team fills out their starting lineup in a 12 team format before filling out their bench (not including DST or K), I then ranked all players based on their differential point spread to the last player drafted at each position. Doing this may be a little suspect for some of the lower draft positions, but it was really interesting for the top end players. I ended up with this ranking, and doing mock drafts, this ranking seems to get the "most value" as a starting lineup. Again, the fallacy being that maybe you'd rather draft a backup RB before a TE or something like that.

RB - Arian Foster
RB - Ray Rice
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - LeSean McCoy
QB - Tom Brady
TE - Rob Gronkowski
WR - Calvin Johnson
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
QB - Drew Brees
QB - Matthew Stafford
TE - Jimmy Graham
RB - Chris Johnson

[Dawinner127]

Wow. That was very insightful. Thank you for posting that. Like I've said, I am all about the RB strategy, and now more than ever, I do not think that there is a better philosophy. Sometimes being the advocate of the strategy helps realize its significance though.

So I guess the next question is, when does the top tier end this year? When should the first QB/WR be drafted? I'm guessing that just about everyone has Rodgers as the top QB and Megatron as the top WR... So before them I currently have, but maybe not exactly in this order..

Aaron Foster
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew
Chris Johnson
Ryan Matthews

And then Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson? Thoughts??

From the few mocks I have done, I have noticed that my top 5 are always going to be this.
1) Foster, McCoy, Rice are 1 - 3 in no specific order.
2) When it comes to 4 and 5 I'm going with Rodgers or Megatron (haven't decided on which one yet, probably Megatron).

The 6 - 9 spot is what scares me. It is to early to reach for McFadden and I recently read that Tennessee thinks 25 carries will be to many for CJ4.24. I don't trust Mathews at all taking him 6 to 9 and MJD and that contract/hamstring really worries me.

I was stuck in spot 10 and 11 in two different mocks and I actually took McFadden in the first round followed by Brees and Brady, which I don't mind.

What I don't get in this argument is that you don't trust Matthews at say 7, but DMC at 11 you like it. the only knock on Matthews is health and DMC is less trustworthy.

My main point without going into a lengthy post is that: we have already seen what a "healthy" McFadden can do. The guy was on pace to finish right along with Foster as the #1 or #2 RB last season prior to his injury. The value that McFadden holds at 11 is greater than the promise of what Mathews holds. The only way I do not see McFadden as a top 4 RB this year, is if he is yet again plagued by an injury.

For me, there are just too many question marks surrounding Mathews for me to want to take him as an early-to-mid first round pick. Whether it be health, his ability to handle a bigger workload, or how inept that entire San Diego offense looks at times.