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Mock Draft Discussion

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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby murphysxm » Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:02 am

joejlitz wrote:Really? What were Mathews rookie year numbers? I don't remember him being that awesome.


Exactly my point. We have been down this path often and usually rookie RB's fail to live up to expectations.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby Chaoyi Shih » Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:16 pm

i agree setting lose $40 on T-Rich is too extreme and thanks for correct it, however, if he fall to late 20th RB, his value is only around 20-25 at most, then it's still $7 : $15-20 gamble, and i definitely won't be happy about risking 20% of my budget for such a small profit and when loss is 2-3 times greater than the profit.

one thing i would like to discuss is the idea of 2012 RBs are thin.
i used to think RBs in 2012 are thin, however, after i check my personal cheat sheet
i found 21 RBs that'll be competitive RB2 (including RB1) and 25 WRs that can be competitive WR2 (include WR1) and 32 WRs that's good for WR3 (include WR1 and 2)

21/24
25/24
32/36

seems RBs are thinner than WRs, but not as thin as i think.
what are people's take on this ?
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby joejlitz » Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:38 am

Is there any reason too think that Fred Jackson at $24 is a steal, considering the prices of the other backs selected? FJAX was the #1 back, (alternating back and forth with DMAC) for most of the season until he got hurt.

Arian Foster, HOU, $59
Ray Rice, BAL, $49
Ryan Mathews, SD, $49
LeSean McCoy, PHI, $48
Darren McFadden, OAK, $47
Chris Johnson, TEN, $47
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX, $42
Matt Forte, CHI, $41
Trent Richardson, CLE, $40
DeMarco Murray, DAL, $40
Adrian Peterson, MIN, $33
Fred Jackson, $24
Frank Gore, SF, $24
"There is no charge for awesomeness or attractiveness." - Po (Kung Fu Panda)
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby nicdolas » Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:41 am

imo hes not a steal just solid value
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby eaglesrock » Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:22 pm

I really liked FJax but when he got hurt and Spiller played well that made me a bit nervous. I believe FJax is 30 or 31, I know he wasnt used quite as hard as other RB's. For $24 I think you got a good bargain and if he returns to last years form, you got a steal.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby Chaoyi Shih » Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:23 pm

age+CJ+injury

i do feel $24 is good price for RB with $40+ upside, but i won't consider it a steal for the reason above
i would have push him to 26 if i don't have other RBs in mind already.

F.Jax, AP, J.Charles are all in the same category.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby murphysxm » Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:33 pm

My biggest regret in getting 2 RB's so early is I have limited my ability to bid on RB's as aggressively. This is a great buy to me and I would have pushed indi higher had I not locked myself in.

As far as the age concern, I don't think it applies to Jackson as much. He's average only 210 carries over the last 3 years. MJD has averaged 308 over the same period and is only 4 years younger, I have more concern about him.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby Indibuck » Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:17 pm

I think I got FJax for a good price, but I'm not sure I would have gone a lot higher. A steal? No, unless you compare him to other RBs who have already been bid... and I think EVERY RB thus far has gone too high. Just my 2 cents.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby Devil Doc » Tue Jul 03, 2012 6:59 am

Finley is mine, PMd aaawall to let him know he's up to bid.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion

Postby Chaoyi Shih » Tue Jul 03, 2012 10:03 am

Just read a great analysis about auction draft and would like to share with everyone.
Some of you might already know some of the strategy and tips.

Typical Position Values
Tier.......%Cap..........RB....................WR................QB.................TE.................DEF.............PK

I...........30%+.........Stud RB1
II..........20-30%.......Other RB1......Elite
III.........15-20%.......Top RB2.........Top WR1.......Elite
IV.........10-15%.......Other RB2......Other WR1.....Top QB1........Elite
V..........5-10%........Top RB3..........WR2.............Other QB1........Top TE1
VI.........2-4%..........Other RB3........WR3.............Top QB2...........Other TE1......Elite
VII........1-2%..........RB4.................WR4..............Marginal QB2...Upside TE2.....DEF1........Top PK
1Dollar...<1%...........Others...........Others..........Others..............Others..........Others.......Others

There are several players who I think will likely break the typical tier ceiling for their position. Calvin Johnson may rise above the Elite WR level into Tier I. Aaron Rodgers may soar into Tier I as well; he almost certainly will be priced in at least Tier II. Tom Brady is a good bet to draw Tier II bids. And Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski will be Tier III players unless the Drew Brees situation turns ugly or Gronkowski’s ankle injury bothers him into preseason. So for these players, disregard the chart. If I’m wrong and they are “going, going…” where they would have in past seasons, that would be a good time to bid.

Basic plan: Get at least three impact players while keeping enough cash to pay for a solid supporting cast of underpriced players with upside. You want to buy three players from the top three tiers for no more than 60% of your cap.

Guideline #1: You want to use 100% of your salaries to buy players worth about 125% of the cap. For example, you may think Steve Smith is a WR1, but he is typically rated and priced as a WR2; therefore, you can buy him for 5-10% of your cap even though his worth to you is about 10-15% of the cap. If you do that a few times, plus consistently buy other players at the low end of the price band for their tier, you will end up managing your cap wisely and have more talent than you paid for: players worth 125% of the cap for 100% of the salaries you’re paying.

Guideline #2: Use your first couple of nominations to understand player values in your auction.
Guideline #3: Always have a purpose for your nominations. It can be to suck money out of the auction, fill a roster hole, slip a targeted player under the radar, or force another owner to commit to filling his own roster before he’s ready.
Guideline #4: Keep several dollars for the endgame
Guideline #5: Don’t be one of the last two owners in a 12-team league to buy a QB.
Guideline #6: Buy at least one Tier I or Tier II RB.

please let me know if anyone is interested in full article with a lot more detail relating to different player at different tier, since i am not sure what's the best way to share the pdf file.
should this to be posted in misc thread instead of draft discussion?
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