As of right now, I'd be much more inclinecd to spend a mid-late 3rd on Charles than a early-mid 2nd on AP.
Charles will have nearly a full year since his injury once the season starts and has never needed 20+ touches a game to be effective. IMO, the KC offense is much better than the Vikings assuming that Bowe decides to sign his franchise tender - Cassel/Charles/Hillis/Bowe/Breaston/Baldwin/Moeaki is actually a pretty solid collection of talent at the skill positions assuming all start the 2012 season at least mostly healthy.
Also, the AFC West appears to be a much softer division than the NFC North (which could be the most competive division in the NFL this season - Bears/Packers/Detroit all are legit playoff caliber squads on paper).
Charles as a RB2 or an RB1 w/ 2 other studs at other positions is more appealing to me than taking a chance on AP w/ your 2nd pick.
As always, all IMO.
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I would put Charles in my personal rankings right on par with Forte at 2ish. That would boil down to personal preference. When I look at running backs I tend to look at that teams Defense. Obviously teams with a better D will be in games more and in turn the RB is more in line for carries. I would take Charles over Forte using this logic, seeing that the Bears have to face the Packers twice and the Lions twice without even looking at the schedule. I know that Charles is coming off an injury of his own but that happened in week 2. Adding Eric Winston to the Oline and the Chiefs now moving to a Zone Blocking scheme are positives for Charles. I personally dont worry too much about Hillis. He will have the goal line looks but for a runner of the caliber of Charles, he can score any time he touches the ball.
Peterson im not a huge fan of this year. ACL and MCL coming back in less then a year, it seems to me he is pushing himself back too fast. I worry about him re-injuring that knee. Again with the Vikes having to face the Packers, Lions and the Bears each twice a year i would look elsewhere for a RB. In my personal rankings I have AD below all of the running backs mentioned in this thread so for this threads sake I have him ranked at 6.
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1. Trent Richardson 2. DeMarco Murray 3. Darren McFadden 4. Jamaal Charles 5. Adrian Peterson 6. Matt Forte 7. Marshawn Lynch
This would be how I'd rank them for next year personally. I know the upside McFadden provides but I'd still take the other 2 before him. Murray isn't anywhere near as big of an injury risk after 1 fluke injury in 1 season. McFadden gets hurt every season, and takes forever to heal. That's been pretty consistent in happening. I believe T Rich is good enough to over come the only focal point, he's that talented and the touches in garbage time will always give those tough games a late boost. Murray is going to explode this year, he's got a perfect storm of positives swinging his way from every angle, I'll let everyone else play it safe and be afraid of him and scoop him up.
Charles is a big time talent and even with Hillis I like him more then the others. AD will start the year on a "pitch count" so to speak so you may get average games for a bit and in 2013 Charles probably has more upside. People are having short term memory with him. Forte I like but holdouts, plus the knee injury, plus Michael Bush, and it seems like too much living in the past with him. Lynch is a safe RB2 option for 2012 but not much upside there, and a solid chance he goes back to just being a solid back. Bruisers come out of their prime in a halt, before you know it. I am typically never the guy that has that past his prime RB even in a redraft so for the most part I'm staying away from him unless I get him in a package deal dirt cheap, and I'm hurting for a RB.
I actually have Richardson, Murray, & Forte on 1 of my dynasty teams and that's the confidence level I have in each of them. Redraft of Dynasty format, if Forte was my RB for 2012 I just wouldn't be that confident in it ending on a high note.
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mutantseabass wrote:. . . 3. Darren McFadden- The fact that he can't finish a season scares me as much as Oakland going back to the zone blocking scheme which If you remember is where he did not excel. I hate having to handcuff Goodson or Jones or who knows Benson??? Too much uncertainty for my liking. . .
That's the biggest problem with McFadden, IMO. Last season the extent of his being an injury risk was lessened because you knew if you drafted him (which I did), you could get Bush and be assured a starting caliber backup if he went down. (I grabbed Bush a round or two earlier than he would otherwise go to be sure of this.)
This year I don't think you can use that same strategy because it's not as clear who will be the clear-cut backup if he goes down. Many criticize the handcuff strategy, but when you have an injury risk as a high draft pick I think it's a must. But it can only work when the backup is obvious and will perform like an RB2 if he gets the reps. It's hard to imagine it wouldn't be goodson in Oakland, but who knows for sure? And who knows whether it would become more of an RBBC with Benson playing short yardage.
Reuben Droughns, anybody? And I'm not saying they're in the same ballpark, talent-wise, but for the reasons dawinner mentioned I want nothing to do with TRich unless he falls much further than his ADP. I see either injury or mediocre production being the result of 2012.
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Barring any injury they should be ranked like this...
1 Peterson 2 McFadden 3 forte 4 Charles 5 Murray 6 lynch 7 Richardson
By all reports all of the guys who were injured last year are pretty much recovered at this point and looking good. With the exception of peterson who's injury was late in the year and it seems likely he will miss time right off the bat and likely won't be the same player this year. Richardson also already has knee injuries this year and is part of the most anemic offense on this list in the best defensive division in football. With thiisinfo I think they need to be ranked like this...
1 McFadden 2 forte 3 Charles 4 Murray 5 lynch 6 Richardson 7 peterson
1. Darren McFadden - if he plays a full season he'll give the big 3 a run for their money, although I'm expecting something like 13 games played 2. Matt Forte - although Bush is an upgrade over Barber, Forte never got the GL touches anyway 3. Jamaal Charles - has looked good in preseason, has steadily moved up my ranks 4. DeMarco Murray - undeniable talent/upside but durability issues, I feel like this pick is riskier than some may think 5. Trent Richardson - i'm not sold, injury concerns, tough schedule, no one to stretch the field 6. Marshawn Lynch - solid but I feel underwhelming, I'd like to be proven wrong again though 7. Adrian Peterson - he should be waiting another month to start playing, I guess we'll find out if he's really superhuman or not
Here's how I'd rank them, exactly the same as the last post haha.