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Another crazy draft idea...

Postby Sex Panther » Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:37 am

So it's like 100 out and humid, I'm blowing off doing stuff at work that takes me away from my desk...

So I'm doing a mock over at Yahoo... have any of you ever put all your eggs in 1 basket on draft day?

1.12 Drew Brees
2.01 Jimmy Graham
3.12 Darren Sproles
4.01 Marques Colston

Ingram, Thomas, Moore, Henderson all cost very little in terms of ADP - so I could grab those guys later in the draft.

Payton being suspended may have a negative effect on the Saints this season, but I still think they are going to be a top 5 offense.

In theroy, by taking these 4 guys (and possibly the other 4 on the cheap later in drafts), I would be locking up a majority of the Saints fantasy scoring...

Doubt I would ever do this, but it is something that has me thinking. I have always been a fan of targeting players in high yield offenses and it has been a habit of mine to "double dip" into these high yield offenses...

Stafford + Megatron
Roddy + Turner
Welker + Gronk
Gornk + Hernandez
Foster + Schaub
etc...

Some times it works wonderfully, on the negative side, a bad game kinda screws you...
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby shawngee03 » Tue Jul 17, 2012 12:27 pm

looking at last year...they scored over 30 most weeks. lowest scoring week was week 6 against TB where they scored 20

Brees 383 yds, 1 TD, 3 Ints
Graham 7 for 124
sproles, 16 rush, 8 catches for 46
colston 7 for 118 and 1 TD

so just by those 4, on their lowest scoring week out of the season, you still are doing pretty good. i would take those any week, not even considering its their lowest scoring week team points wise
so i would say no its not to crazy.
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby Popcynical » Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:45 am

I've thought about it before, but it isn't something I would plan my draft around. What happens when your team faces a tough D and gets shut out? Also, you might find yourself in situations where you're reaching for someone like Brees in the third when you could have got him in the fourth (or someone of better value), etc.
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby Firemoth » Mon Jul 23, 2012 8:52 am

Making some simplifying assumptions:
1. At each point in the draft you have a choice of a Saints player or a player at the same position who will score the same number of fantasy points in the year.
2. Players week-to-week score is more heavily correlated if they are from the same team

Then by picking players from the same team, you maintain the same average score, but increase your variance. This makes your results more inconsistent.

If your team is sub-average for your league, this is a good thing, because being inconsistent will help you lose less.
If your team is above-average for your league, this is a bad thing, because being inconsistent will help you win less.

Therefore, I endorse this strategy if you are trying to break into an established legacy or heavy keeper league. As my intention in redrafts is to draft a better than average team, I oppose this strategy for redrafts. If you really feel you got screwed by your draft position, I suppose you could give it a shot. And I assume you are planning to give up on the bye week?

Popcynical points out that assumption 1 might not hold for your draft... you shouldn't really be passing up better players in order to draft someone from the same team. It is possible that the reverse may be true: that you know the Saints players are going to have a much better season than anyone else gives them credit for. But if you know this, then this strategy is equivalent to "draft the best available".
I'm not even sure assumption 2 has been proven to my satisfaction. It seems intuitively obvious that QBs and his WRs/TEs would both have good days on the same weeks since they are scoring on the same plays, but has anyone studied whether a team's QB and primary RB scores fair better on the same weeks?
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby Dawinner127 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:35 pm

Popcynical wrote:I've thought about it before, but it isn't something I would plan my draft around. What happens when your team faces a tough D and gets shut out? Also, you might find yourself in situations where you're reaching for someone like Brees in the third when you could have got him in the fourth (or someone of better value), etc.

Not sure where you are able to get Brees in the third or fourth. In every mock I have done he is late first - early second.
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby moochman » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:56 pm

I see absolutely nothing wrong with a tandem of Megatron and Stafford. There is a great blend of questionable running game, questionable back 7 on D play that should lead to increased need to air it out. Should your QB get injured his back up is good enough to feed Calvin so you don't get a double whammy.
Like the Saints play because of above reasons and you shouldn't have to reach to get those players, just a bit of luck.
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby Cuffs » Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:02 pm

I think it's a good thought. My issue would be that your eggs aren't just in the Saints basket, they are in the Brees basket. Injury to one player, Brees, makes that whole plan tank. Colston, Graham and Sproles are all incredible talents, but you put an NFL backup (or even many teams' starters) behind center instead of Brees, and you'll see a pretty big dropoff in production for all those guys.

If you play in a handful of leagues, I see no harm in trying it in one, but if you only play in a couple or only play in leagues that you really care about, I think that's a really high-risk plan that doesn't necessarily offer a higher reward than other less-risky draft strategies.
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby benb18a » Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:36 pm

Worst. Idea. Ever. :-b
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby Sex Panther » Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:45 pm

benb18a wrote:Worst. Idea. Ever. :-b


Not what I initially planned on, but it's waht happening...

I will keep the Cafe posted.
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Re: Another crazy draft idea...

Postby ravendan » Wed Aug 01, 2012 6:27 pm

Can you show how the rest of your team turned out? Staying away from those late round guys... the first 4 picks are so solid it would be interesting to see how the rest of the team would shape up.
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