Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

[Sex Panther]

So, the consensus is that Foster, Rice, McCoy, Mathews, MJD, and CJ2K are the top 6 RB going into 2012.

Things can change during training camps (which are right around the corner), but unless something drastic happens - these 6 are pretty firmly cemented as the precieved top dogs at their respective position.

IMO There are 2 1/2 tiers here as of today.

Tier 1 - Foster, Rice, McCoy

Tier 1B - Mathews

Tier 2 - MJD, CJ2K

After those 6, is when the RB position gets truly murky, these are the backs that I think will be the next dudes off the board (I'm sure people out there will have different opinions on this & in no particular order)...

Guys who are in line for the 'lion's share of carries" -

McFadden (injury concerns), Richardson (rookie), Murray (injury concern ?), Lynch (suspension looming?), AP (injury concern, PUP list possible), SJax (lots of miles on those tires, has never been a TD machine)

Guys who are or could be in a RBBC of sorts -

Forte (M. Bush's role yet to be determined), FJax (Spiller = back of the Bills future?), Charles (coming back from injury, never has been a bulk carry guy, Hillis signed - role to be determined), Sproles (PPR asset, not as big of a contributor in non-PPR, 3 headed monster at RB, no Payton), Bradshaw (always seems to have issues with his feet, rookie looming), Gore (3 other backs on roster, has never been in a RBBC, role TBD).

So, out of those 12 guys, how does the Cafe think things will pan out, is there anybody not listed you would throw into this mix?

Who are you targeting? Where are you targeting them? Who are you avoiding? Why are you avoiding them?

And after these guys, who would you be comfortable with as RB2's and 3's?

[daullaz]

FYI, my Positional Plan: RB article is set to publish tomorrow, and it tackles my answers to these questions. My top tiers are a little different -- I have Foster, Rice, McCoy and MJD in Tier 1, then a Tier 2 with Mathews, Johnson, McFadden, Forte, Richardson, Murray, Peterson, Charles and Lynch.

I put MJD with the other three because he's been consistently excellent and has no injury concerns. The only minus to him is a potential contract holdout, but that didn't seem to be hurting Rice or Forte's stock before they signed their contracts. I'm guessing MJD's stock was a little lower than it deserved because of the offense he plays in, but he was actually at his best last year, averaging almost 125 total yards per game while posting his best YPC number since his rookie year.

[Wood Chipper]

I also like Mcgahee, Shonn Greene, and Ben Jarvus as a flex RB. All 3 will be the bellcows.

[Free John Beck]

No mention of Michael Turner? I know he's getting old, but a reduced workload might be a good thing for him. He'll still get goaline carries for one of the best offenses in the league.

[daullaz]

I also like Mcgahee, Shonn Greene, and Ben Jarvus as a flex RB. All 3 will be the bellcows.

I don't know about that. McGahee may not be a good fit for a Manning offense, and Denver may not run enough to call McGahee bell-cow. At his age, I also worry about him holding up even if he is getting 18-20 touches a game.

BenJarvus seems to be likely to split with Bernard Scott. I think the coaches want to use both guys extensively.

Shonn Greene worries me because of Tebow. How many goal-line TDs will Tebow siphon from Greene? How many yards?

Now, if you had said James Starks, I'd have to agree. The only guy threatening his carries right now is Alex Green, a guy with no experience who's rehabbing an injury. Even in a pass-happy offense, Starks is going to get a lot of touches.

[Dawinner127]

I also like Mcgahee, Shonn Greene, and Ben Jarvus as a flex RB. All 3 will be the bellcows.

I don't know about that. McGahee may not be a good fit for a Manning offense, and Denver may not run enough to call McGahee bell-cow. At his age, I also worry about him holding up even if he is getting 18-20 touches a game.

BenJarvus seems to be likely to split with Bernard Scott. I think the coaches want to use both guys extensively.

Shonn Greene worries me because of Tebow. How many goal-line TDs will Tebow siphon from Greene? How many yards?

Now, if you had said James Starks, I'd have to agree. The only guy threatening his carries right now is Alex Green, a guy with no experience who's rehabbing an injury. Even in a pass-happy offense, Starks is going to get a lot of touches.

Tebow does worry me about cutting into Shonn Greene's production, but I can only see Tebow being in about 12 or 13 plays a game. After that, the Jets have no one who can carry the rock. Joe McKnight hasn't proved much in his short career here and he also can't hold onto the football and that is a great way to get into the coaches doghouse. The Jets also have Bilal Powell fromLouisville who looked lost last year and they drafted Terrance Ganaway in the 6th round this year, who I don't expect much from.

Greene definitely has the ability to finish with 260 - 270 carries and around 1000-1200 total yards with 7+ scores in this "Ground and Pound" offense.

However, I do really like Starks this year, especially for how late is ADP. I think the value is tremendous with a decent upside.

[Sex Panther]

I also like Mcgahee, Shonn Greene, and Ben Jarvus as a flex RB. All 3 will be the bellcows.

I don't know about that. McGahee may not be a good fit for a Manning offense, and Denver may not run enough to call McGahee bell-cow. At his age, I also worry about him holding up even if he is getting 18-20 touches a game.

BenJarvus seems to be likely to split with Bernard Scott. I think the coaches want to use both guys extensively.

Shonn Greene worries me because of Tebow. How many goal-line TDs will Tebow siphon from Greene? How many yards?

Now, if you had said James Starks, I'd have to agree. The only guy threatening his carries right now is Alex Green, a guy with no experience who's rehabbing an injury. Even in a pass-happy offense, Starks is going to get a lot of touches.

Tebow does worry me about cutting into Shonn Greene's production, but I can only see Tebow being in about 12 or 13 plays a game. After that, the Jets have no one who can carry the rock. Joe McKnight hasn't proved much in his short career here and he also can't hold onto the football and that is a great way to get into the coaches doghouse. The Jets also have Bilal Powell fromLouisville who looked lost last year and they drafted Terrance Ganaway in the 6th round this year, who I don't expect much from.

Greene definitely has the ability to finish with 260 - 270 carries and around 1000-1200 total yards with 7+ scores in this "Ground and Pound" offense.

However, I do really like Starks this year, especially for how late is ADP. I think the value is tremendous with a decent upside.

All the guys you have mentioned - BJGE, McGahee, Greene, Starks, etc... throw P. Thomas, Ingram, Martin, D. Brown, R. Bush, Best, LeShoure, Stewart, Wells, Hillman, etc into there as well all figure into the RB equation, but IMO none of them (or their ADP) falls into the murkiness that is the 3rd RB tier at this point. Hence, I left them all out of this.

For the record, Starks and Best (and LeShoure) are guys that I think present wonderful value at the current ADP and are guys that are firmly entrenched on my fantasy draft day radar.

[Dawinner127]

All the guys you have mentioned - BJGE, McGahee, Greene, Starks, etc... throw P. Thomas, Ingram, Martin, D. Brown, R. Bush, Best, LeShoure, Stewart, Wells, Hillman, etc into there as well all figure into the RB equation, but IMO none of them (or their ADP) falls into the murkiness that is the 3rd RB tier at this point. Hence, I left them all out of this.

For the record, Starks and Best (and LeShoure) are guys that I think present wonderful value at the current ADP and are guys that are firmly entrenched on my fantasy draft day radar.

You mentioned Gore as one of the guys after the top-6, I think Reggie Bushs' current situation is much better than what Gore has to offer. Gore is in a sticky situation. He has a lot miles on those legs and they keep bringing in more backs. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole.

Where does a guy like Helu fall in these rankings? I definitely have him above guys like Wells, Stewart, and Greene. I would be perfectly content having one of those guys has my RB3 while my other positions have more quality players.

[daullaz]

All the guys you have mentioned - BJGE, McGahee, Greene, Starks, etc... throw P. Thomas, Ingram, Martin, D. Brown, R. Bush, Best, LeShoure, Stewart, Wells, Hillman, etc into there as well all figure into the RB equation, but IMO none of them (or their ADP) falls into the murkiness that is the 3rd RB tier at this point. Hence, I left them all out of this.

For the record, Starks and Best (and LeShoure) are guys that I think present wonderful value at the current ADP and are guys that are firmly entrenched on my fantasy draft day radar.

You mentioned Gore as one of the guys after the top-6, I think Reggie Bushs' current situation is much better than what Gore has to offer. Gore is in a sticky situation. He has a lot miles on those legs and they keep bringing in more backs. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole.

Where does a guy like Helu fall in these rankings? I definitely have him above guys like Wells, Stewart, and Greene. I would be perfectly content having one of those guys has my RB3 while my other positions have more quality players.

How long will Helu get the majority of touches for Shenanihan? Two games, three? At any rate, I end up drafting Hightower and/or Royster late in all my mocks. I've seen this script before.

[Sex Panther]

Agree on the Gore thing, I think his current ADP is around 60 (which is affordable IMO).

Helu is another guy I wouldn't mind having, but the Shanny-agins in Washington cloud that situation a bit, I think I read somewhere that if healthy, Hightower would be their starting RB (why IDK, he is the definition of mediocre).

I like the prospects of Bush (and where he's being drafted), if the transition to a new HC & OC go as planned he should be a wonderful PPR asset to be had in the middle rounds (and at this point, I agree I'd rather have him over Gore if the season were to start today). Another thing to consider w/ Bush is his insurance policies (Thomas and/or Miller) would basically cost you nothing (which I like).