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Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Dawinner127 » Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:12 am

This year is going to be one of the most confusing, and at the same time, interesting fantasy football years I have seen in recent memory in regards to RBs. There are only 3 guys who have no question marks, every other RB has some sort of question attached to his name. This might be one of the first years where I am not going to end up with 2 RBs in my first 3 rounds.

Another guy you won't see me touch is Marshawn Lynch after his recent off field injuries. I actually had high hopes for him, but I can definitely see a 4+ game suspension looming in the distance.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby ravendan » Thu Jul 19, 2012 7:28 pm

I am wondering why no one is mentioning Isaaic Redman in the top 10? He is the feature back in a high powered offense, no competition for goal line carries, and has a couple years experience. Conversely why does everyone now rate Mathews within the "big 6" That is quite a jump for him in an offense that most likely will not be as potent with no true #1 receiver for Rivers and has never proven to be a true feature back.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:17 pm

ravendan wrote:I am wondering why no one is mentioning Isaaic Redman in the top 10? He is the feature back in a high powered offense, no competition for goal line carries, and has a couple years experience. Conversely why does everyone now rate Mathews within the "big 6" That is quite a jump for him in an offense that most likely will not be as potent with no true #1 receiver for Rivers and has never proven to be a true feature back.


I certainly don't want any part of Redman. If Mendenhall plays at all this year, and it's looking like that's a better than 50-50 chance, Redman will probably go back to at least being a committee back, if not an out-and-out backup. Unfortunately, if that happens, it's going to happen either before or during the fantasy playoffs. I'd much prefer grabbing guys that I expect to start for the entire year.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby LS2throwed » Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:19 pm

After the top 6 I'm probably looking at Murray and Steven Jackson first without much hesitation. The Murray injury concerns are getting over blown, everybody tries to use his OU history as some sort of evidence and he missed what, 3 games out of his entire collegiate career with the type of workload he had, but somehow he's not durable? That's laughable to me. It was 1 season in Dallas with 1 fluke injury, when it's happened year in and out(talking to you McFadden) then we can boldly claim it. Murray has got top 5 RB upside at great value. He's going to get all the carries, a handful of receptions, in an offense that has an explosive passing game to open up lanes that will present scoring opportunities. There is going to be big time upside with him every week.


Steven Jackson is just still capable of putting up RB1 numbers and having huge monster games at any given week. STL's offense getting better in the passing game would help him but he still had over 1400 yards and 40 catches in that putrid offense they trotted out last year. I don't see a big drop off in those numbers this year either and if you can get him as your RB2 you've got a big time producer who should still have some weeks where he goes nuts.


Another reason I like those two is they both have clear handcuffs that if need be could step in and produce as well(obviously guessing with Pead but this is the first time STL has had a clear handcuff to hand the reigns over to that was halfway talented since Jackon took over). Felix is injury prone himself, but he'll come at really cheap value, and if he needs to finish out the last 5 games of the fantasy season he could post some huge numbers every single week there and you don't lose much in your line-up. Especially with him about to be a free agent. He's always had those spans where over a month or so you go "wow this guy is super talented". Pead is going to get all the touches in the event that he'd have to play without Jackson and while he is a rookie, I like his explosiveness combined with the workload he'd get.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Stelly » Sat Jul 21, 2012 1:45 pm

I do think the top guys are Foster, Rice, McCoy, Matthews, MJD and CJ2K. After that...it just gets werid!! Richardson has a lot going for him, but are you willing to pay a first round price for a rookie? McFadden is a stud....if he's on the field. Then the Charles/AP/Murray/SJax teir is a complete cluster. Charles is coming off an ACL, and is splitting w/Hillis. AP I won't touch in a redraft before the 4th right now. His injury was too late in the season for me to feel safewith him this season. Murray looked great last season, but it was such a small sample size. Can he sustain that?? Will Felix Jones steal some of his touches? SJax is a bellcow, but is getting older and has a ton of miles on his tires. Definitely due to hit a wall soon.

All those guys COULD be RB1s, but there are so many question marks, they could be nothing. My big question is when do you start taking a Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson ahead of these guys? I think in the Charles/Murray/SJax area is about right. I know I am in a keeper league, where I have Ray Rice already. My first round pick is in the area where the Charles/Murry/SJax guys are going along with Fitzgerald. Not sure who the best pick is there. Fitz is a sure thing, but having 2 nice RBs could be a HUGE advantage this season. Especially with how deep WR is.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Wood Chipper » Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:11 pm

ravendan wrote:I am wondering why no one is mentioning Isaaic Redman in the top 10? He is the feature back in a high powered offense, no competition for goal line carries, and has a couple years experience. Conversely why does everyone now rate Mathews within the "big 6" That is quite a jump for him in an offense that most likely will not be as potent with no true #1 receiver for Rivers and has never proven to be a true feature back.


Isaac Redman is shaping up to be a top 15-20 back for the first 6 weeks (considering mendenhall is on the PUP list).
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby scottaa1 » Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:20 pm

Mendenhall tore his ACL six months ago. I put a ? on Charles and he tore his in week 2. Backs that have a full year to recover often aren't themselves the first year back and sometimes are never the same. I think Mendy may be PUP longer than some are believing, and if Redman performs well in Mendy's absence I can see Pitt management running with Redman through the season. That's a string of 'ifs' admittedly. IF Redman is playing well enough, why not give Mendy the extra time to rehab? Maybe give him some carries late in the season just to feel it out, but why rush it (pun not intended).
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby bagobonez » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:22 am

I like Murray and McFadden the most out of the next group of guys, followed by Peterson. All 3 have incredible talent, and of course all 3 have injury concerns, but I would say Murray has the least injury concerns of the 3 and the Cowboys' O-line should be better than last year, plus they got FB Lawrence Vickers who is beast!
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Cuffs » Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:27 pm

Sex Panther wrote:So, the consensus is that Foster, Rice, McCoy, Mathews, MJD, and CJ2K are the top 6 RB going into 2012.

Things can change during training camps (which are right around the corner), but unless something drastic happens - these 6 are pretty firmly cemented as the precieved top dogs at their respective position.

IMO There are 2 1/2 tiers here as of today.

Tier 1 - Foster, Rice, McCoy

Tier 1B - Mathews

Tier 2 - MJD, CJ2K

After those 6, is when the RB position gets truly murky, these are the backs that I think will be the next dudes off the board (I'm sure people out there will have different opinions on this & in no particular order)...

Guys who are in line for the 'lion's share of carries" -

McFadden (injury concerns), Richardson (rookie), Murray (injury concern ?), Lynch (suspension looming?), AP (injury concern, PUP list possible), SJax (lots of miles on those tires, has never been a TD machine)

Guys who are or could be in a RBBC of sorts -

Forte (M. Bush's role yet to be determined), FJax (Spiller = back of the Bills future?), Charles (coming back from injury, never has been a bulk carry guy, Hillis signed - role to be determined), Sproles (PPR asset, not as big of a contributor in non-PPR, 3 headed monster at RB, no Payton), Bradshaw (always seems to have issues with his feet, rookie looming), Gore (3 other backs on roster, has never been in a RBBC, role TBD).

So, out of those 12 guys, how does the Cafe think things will pan out, is there anybody not listed you would throw into this mix?

Who are you targeting? Where are you targeting them? Who are you avoiding? Why are you avoiding them?

And after these guys, who would you be comfortable with as RB2's and 3's?


IMO, there's a tier 2B of:

Turner - as stated by others a slightly reduced workload could do him some good. He still finished 2011 with over 1400 total yards and 11 TDs. His adp is around 55.

Bradshaw - he has injury issues at times but still has missed "only" 6 games in the last 3 years and finished last season with 12 TDs/900+ total yards in a pretty good offense, and now a TD vulture is gone. His ADP right now is outside of the 3rd round. I think he's a good option there. Just be sure to draft his handcuff.

SJAX. He can be had in the 4th round and unless he gets injured he is extremely likely to get 270 touches total. His versatility makes him valuable because he can catch against teams with a tough running D. Pead was drafted as the RB of the future but is not likely to be able to do near what SJAX does as a rookie and doesn't have nearly the same size Jackson does, which is key in pass protection for protecting their young QB investment. Plus, Bradford had a rocky rookie campaign but seems poised to have an improved year, which should help Jackson. I don't see that much risk.

I just think the key with these guys is to handcuff them with their backups, who should be available at a low price. Other than that, I don't see a great deal of risk with tier 2B. No, there isn't as much upside, but I tend to want lower risk with my top 4 picks. I know I can get high upside/low cost with players like Best, Ben Tate, Bernard Scott, etc. later in the draft.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Wed Jul 25, 2012 12:45 pm

Personally, I see no reason to grab a running back until the 4th or 5th rolls around if you haven't grabbed one of the so-called "Big Six". I'm stocking other positions before taking my 2nd running back since I'll have McCoy in the 1st round this year. Virtually everyone down the line has a major question mark or two attached:

1. Trent Richardson - No way in hell am I grabbing a running back from Cleveland, especially considering how putrid their offense has been lately. I simply cannot see any reason why in a normal re-draft you would want to go after a running back who has virtually no weapons around him to help take the pressure off of him, with likely a rookie quarterback (Weedon) starting alongside him, with the Browns' history of success at running back. If he was going to be available in the 3rd round, absolutely worth the risk. But people are taking him in the 1st, which makes almost no sense in a standard re-draft.

2. Darren McFadden - All the potential in the world, just cannot stay healthy. He's played for four seasons and has yet to finish one with 16 starts.

3. Matt Forte - Has never been a goalline back and now Michael Bush is in town. If he was a #2 back, absolutely. But I cannot justify drafting him as my #1 back in the 1st round when he'll probably score no more than 7 times on the year.

4. DeMarco Murray - I'm not sweating the injury so much, nor am I worried about Felix Jones' presence. What concerns me is the one-hit-wonder notion. He had 3 big games and a bunch of stinkers. Even with the 3 big games, he scored only 2 touchdowns. I recall getting all excited about Jerome Harrison a few years back after he nearly broke the single game rushing record late in the year and we all recall how that ended. Again, do I think the kid is a talent? Sure. With just two touchdowns under his belt, I do concern for his ability to score points though and the consistency needs to be there for him to be a great #1 back.

5. Adrian Peterson - Uh, no. You guys want to take a player who blew out three ligaments in his knee late in the year, be my guest.

6. Jamaal Charles - See above. Plus he has the White Rhino there likely to steal goalline carries.

7. Marshawn Lynch - Can he stay on the field, given his off-field problems? Also, now that he's paid, will he play hard?

8. Fred Jackson - He's 31 years old. That's already enough to make me worried. Now, he's coming off an injury, too?

It's a huge mess, alright! If you have a shot at one of the top options like McCoy, Rice, Foster or MJD, I say go for it. After that, I'd strongly consider taking the best player available which likely will be a top flight QB, WR or one of the two top TE options (Graham, Gronk) before reaching early for a running back just to "fill the roster spot." I'm saying that given the options that are available in the 4th round like Doug Martin, Shonn Greene, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Willis McGahee or Roy Helu, who have about as many question marks as the above options.
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