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Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Cuffs » Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:21 pm

Starting to feel like I’m going crazy. First the Daniel Thomas mis-remembering, now this? I googled Trent Richardson ADP and the first site I clicked said 7. He’s going 30th on average according to ESPN. I’d almost surely take him in the second, unless someone unexpected was there.

Just take me out of this conversation before I’m wrong about something else.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:35 pm

Cuffs wrote:Starting to feel like I’m going crazy. First the Daniel Thomas mis-remembering, now this? I googled Trent Richardson ADP and the first site I clicked said 7. He’s going 30th on average according to ESPN. I’d almost surely take him in the second, unless someone unexpected was there.

Just take me out of this conversation before I’m wrong about something else.


No, you're not that far off. I don't think anyone here ever said No. 7 overall, but I've been defending him as a 1/2-turn pick (10-15 range), which is much higher than the ESPN ADP. In the Cafe article I did about the RB position (http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/2012 ... lan_rb.php), I basically agreed with your point that the QB-Megatron tier should split Tier 1 and Tier 2 of the RB rankings. I probably wouldn't draft RIchardson any higher than nine, and that's only if I wind up liking him more than Mathews, Johnson, etc. (you can see the rest of the list at the link). I think when it all comes down to it, I'd take Foster, McCoy, Rice, MJD, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Megatron, Mathews and CJ4.24 in some order before I turn to Richardson. If I broke Tier 2 down into two sub-tiers, I'd put Mathews, Johnson, Richardson and probably DeMarco Murray in 2a. Even at No. 11, I think the rookie contains some upside, as you can tell from my previous posts, and I have no problem with him going in the first round.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Stelly » Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:52 pm

Dr. Duran Duran wrote:
Stelly wrote:*slow clap*

*high fives*

Excellent post. Just out if curiosity, what are your thoughts on SJax?


Thanks, man. B-)

I had Steven Jackson for the past four years and although I appreciated his toughness and the four consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, his decline is almost certainly on the horizon. 2,138 rushing attempts is a career for a lot of guys. He's the #2 active leader in rushing attempts behind only Thomas Jones (2,678). Though I think he might be able to churn out another 1,000 yard season with about 6-8 scores, it's quite a risk given his age (29) number of attempts and the anemic offense he plays for. I'd be happy to have him as a #2 rusher but given his ADP, you'd have to take him in the 2nd round of a 12-14 team re-draft, which is a bit too high for my liking. I'd rather take a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or a TE like Gronkowski in the 2nd than go after a relatively high-risk/low reward player like Jackson with a 2nd round selection.


So when do you stop taking the top RBs and start taking a top WR or TE? After the "big 6" are off the board who are you drafting before you consider that next level of RBs with tons of risk/questions?
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:01 am

Stelly wrote:
Dr. Duran Duran wrote:
Stelly wrote:*slow clap*

*high fives*

Excellent post. Just out if curiosity, what are your thoughts on SJax?


Thanks, man. B-)

I had Steven Jackson for the past four years and although I appreciated his toughness and the four consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, his decline is almost certainly on the horizon. 2,138 rushing attempts is a career for a lot of guys. He's the #2 active leader in rushing attempts behind only Thomas Jones (2,678). Though I think he might be able to churn out another 1,000 yard season with about 6-8 scores, it's quite a risk given his age (29) number of attempts and the anemic offense he plays for. I'd be happy to have him as a #2 rusher but given his ADP, you'd have to take him in the 2nd round of a 12-14 team re-draft, which is a bit too high for my liking. I'd rather take a WR like Larry Fitzgerald or a TE like Gronkowski in the 2nd than go after a relatively high-risk/low reward player like Jackson with a 2nd round selection.


So when do you stop taking the top RBs and start taking a top WR or TE? After the "big 6" are off the board who are you drafting before you consider that next level of RBs with tons of risk/questions?


Me personally...

1.01 Foster
1.02 Rice
1.03 McCoy
1.04 Mathews
1.05 Megatron
1.06 MJD (if his hold out ends prior to camp breaking)
1.07 CJ2K

Then it gets dicey IMO, I would strongly consider Graham at 8...

So for arguements sake, I'll plug him there

1.08 Graham
1.09 Rodgers (I wouldn't take him here, more later)

1.10 - 1.12 Should be Forte/McFadden/Richardson IMO, in what order I have no clue, but in PPR formats, those are the 3 that round out my first round.

IMO Calvin is in a tier of his own at WR, he appears to have such an incredibly high ceiling and such a high floor, there really isn't an arguement for a WR other than him as the 1st off the board. He has 20 TD upside.

Very similar to Calvin is Graham, IMO he's in a tier of his own, he's an ELITE WR1 who happens to play TE. Hence the giddiness and 1st round love for him. Some people will make an arguement for Gronk, and after last season, I can see why - I just don't think Gronk's year is repeatable, whereas w/ GRaham I think he can improve on last years numbers.

Rodgers will be drafted in the 1st round in pretty much every league out there (Brady and Brees very weel, and probably will too). Stafford and Newton will probably be gone in the 2nd, and no way any of those 5 make it out of the 3rd in 12+ team leagues... fine by me. Vick, Romo, Rivers, the Mannings, Ryan, Cutler, Big Ben - give me one of them several rounds after the big 5 are gone (in 12 team leagues that makes 13 QB's I view as comfortable with starting). Schaub, Palmer, Freeman, RG3 (I wouldn't touch him, but he is in the mold of Vick/Newton to a degree) all have very decent upside...

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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Fri Jul 27, 2012 11:38 am

Stelly wrote:So when do you stop taking the top RBs and start taking a top WR or TE? After the "big 6" are off the board who are you drafting before you consider that next level of RBs with tons of risk/questions?


It really depends on how many teams are in your league and where you're picking. If it's a standard 12 team draft (re-draft, not keeper), I'm going with an elite quarterback (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford) or a WR like Calvin Johnson. That accounts for 11 of the 12 spots. Having said that, there are some positions on the draft board towards the end of the 1st round and swinging back in the 2nd where you'll probably feel more comfortable taking a risk on a red flag candidate at RB like Darren McFadden. Again, the idea in the 1st round is to take a player who you feel will anchor your team - someone who's a "sure thing." I'd feel much better about taking one of the QBs I listed above or Calvin Johnson instead of someone like McFadden or Richardson when picking in the 1st round.

In the second round you can feel pretty confident about taking one of the two elite TEs (Gronk & Graham) to get a major leg up on everyone else in the league at that position or you could go with some of the safer bets at WR like Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White or Greg Jennings. Of course, taking a running back who has the potential to give you a strong #1 at that position is still a gamble, but one I'd feel better about since we're now out of the 1st round.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby LMack » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:08 pm

Cuffs wrote:The highest draft position of the top 6 rushers in the NFL last year was 52nd. Draft position (or the size of a rookier contract) is an indicator of the confidence a team has in a player but is not necessarily an indicator of future success. I get your point, and it is a good one. But I am still not sold on Richardson as a top 7 pick. I would much rather have Rodgers/Brees/Brady or Calvin Johnson and go with volume of high risk/high reward RBs. Just my opinion.

You're right on Thomas. I was thinking he was one of these rookie 1st/2nd round fantasy picks, but he was drafted a lot later typically in fantasy. I remembered hype around him that didn't pan out, but I was off on him in the post above.


I know I'm a little late to the thread, but

As far as the Richardson vs. Thomas comparisons, I think its important to remember that all signs point to Richardson being a back of greater pedigree. Richardson has consistently graded out higher than Thomas by all scouting agencies and Richardson played better against better competition in college. Richardson's situation for fantasy purposes is better, too. I'll qualify that with the fact that while playing for the Cleveland Browns rarely is "better", Richardson is in line to see 325-350 touches. Even if every news agency last year was reporting Thomas as a "bell cow" the fact that Reggie Bush was in town made 225-250 touches the actual expectation.


Also, I think it is important to remember that Thomas underperformed in training camp and preseason. If Richardson does that this year, he will (and should) slide a little on draft boards.

To sum that up, Richardson seems to be a better player in line for a bigger workload. I think its fair to draft him that way.
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby ravendan » Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:14 pm

With all of the rb questions being thoroughly discussed here do you consider Darren spores as high as pick 6/7 in appr?
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby shawngee03 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:22 pm

ravendan wrote:With all of the rb questions being thoroughly discussed here do you consider Darren spores as high as pick 6/7 in appr?


im probably going to be picking up sproles in the 35-45 range, whatever pick i have in that range in each draft. i only play ppr or half ppr, so he has good value to me where he is being picked
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:43 pm

If Sproles is there at the 3/4 turn me in a 12 team PPR in know where I'm drafting at, he'll be very hard to pass up
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Re: Sorting through the mess at RB after the "big 6"

Postby Dawinner127 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:26 pm

Sex Panther wrote:If Sproles is there at the 3/4 turn me in a 12 team PPR in know where I'm drafting at, he'll be very hard to pass up

I am in love with Sproles in a PPR. I remember reading one of your posts and it has stuck with me. With Sean Payton out for the season in New Orleans, the Saints are going to rely more and more on their main offensive talents (Graham, Brees, Sproles, Colston). I think these 4 players are all in for a big year.. again.
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