I think my biggest mistake was bidding on a QB first. Should have went after another RB instead of Newton. But once I started bidding, my strategy changed. I figured with a running QB like Newton I'd be ok at the RB position. Now I'm kicking myself for that. Two rookie RB's and one "change of pace" back isn't my ideal set up. But, we'll see I guess.
I went in with a clear strategy of waiting on a QB as I had a strong feeling they would be cheap late and acquiring at least 2 top 12 RB's. My very first win was Drew Brees for $37, so my whole draft was kind of turned on it's head. I'm not sure I recovered. I did get my 2 backs, albeit at a premium. I under estimated the temptation of having 24 hours to bid on a player. I found it very challenging to see a player nominated at what I considered a value and not eventually put a bid in.
My best value is probably that I was able to get Michael Bush to handcuff Forte for $6. If he had been nominated early, he would have gone for much more, My worst value is Ryan Fitzpatrick for $7.
Players I think where great values for other guys - Matt Ryan $14, Jonathan Stewart for $8, Stevie Johnson for $16 and Beanie Wells for $9. Players I think went for too much - Gostkowski -$4 (a kicker?) and Cedric Benson (was actually pleased with this nomination. Dolfan had just purchased DMac and there where Benson to Raiders rumors swirling....
All in all, I didn't do as well as I hoped and got burned more than once trying to drive a nomination price up. As always, patience is the key in auction drafts and I made too many impetuous decisions....
My best buy was Steven Jackson at $19. The worst buy I had was Brandon Pettigrew since the TEs that went after him were less expensive like Olsen at $2. My strategy was to have a balanced roster and take one stud (Lynch ). It worked to an extent. My mistake was I missed out on a Steve Johnson type WR and had to settle with Moore as a WR3. Overall I think my team is average.
Overall, I am very pleased with my roster. Peyton / Schaub platooning at my QB. Both Rbs will see the lions share of the touches in Richardson / Green with the combo of Redman / Mendy backing them up. Also a platoon of TE between Gonzo and Tamme who I am very high on reunited with Peyton. He was fantasy gold just a few years ago. Absolutely love my WRS. AJ / Lloyd / VJax / DJax and Moss.
I think I am balanced overall and have real good depth. I am counting on Peyton returning to form although I think I ride Schaub earky as Manning gets back into rythym. I overpaid for Peyton a little but like many, I got caught up in bidding wars.
My roster: QB - Peyton Manning QB, DEN - $22 RB - Trent Richardson - RB, CLE - $40 RB. Shone Greene RB NYJ - $15 WR - Andre Johnson, WR - HOU - $31 WR - Brandon Lloyd, WR - NE - $19 WR - Vincent Jackson, WR - TB $14 TE - Tony Gonzalez, TE -ATL - $5 D/ST Pittsburgh Defense - $4 K- Matt Bryant, K ATL - $1
BENCH: B: Matt Schaub , QB - HOU $7 B: Isaac Redman, RB- Pitt $15 B: Rashard Mendenhall, RB-Pitt $3 B: Desean Jackson, WR- PHI - $16 B: Randy Moss, WR - SF - $3 B: Jacob Tamme, TE - DEN - $5
i wanted to have 3 elite player as my core and evenly spread the rest on my roster, however, bidding on Sproles and Welker because of PPR is a little too much for my budget, luckily i got Beanie Wells for cheap.
i will still take Brady, MJD and Mega for the price i drafted, and the only thing i would like to change is ditch Welker and get two $20 range WR for my WR2 and WR3 (Steve Johnson $16, S.Smith $22, J.Nelsone $19, or V. Cruz $24)
My worst buy is probably Welker, however, i do think Welker is worth $36 in PPR format, it's just my budget really cant afford him and it really limited my later drafting power.
Best buy is Beanie Wells/J. Witten RB2 for $9 is cheap
Witten is ranked 3rd in my TE list in PPR format and with V. Davis $18, A. Hernandez $16, J. Finley $18 i feel Witten $12 is good buy.
However, i am still a big fan of Stud/Scrub approach and always try to get at least 3 elite players that includes top QB (one of the top 3)
Players with good value: $22 S.Smith $16 S.Johnson $9 Beanie Wells all top 3 RB + megatron in PPR (any one of them will worth $50) $19 J. Nelson $17 E.Manning $19 Steven Jackson $41 M. Forte (after July 16 that we know he got new contract and back to normal and he is back to elite RB tier with MJD, CJ1K, R.Matthews)
Players over-valued all the Def and K that cost over $1, even 49ers. $40 T. Richardson $39 Newton $34 M. Vick $40 M. Stafford $47 DMC $59 A. Foster
How i judge if the player is over-priced is by comparing the first few key players that's been nominated, for example, if i see Brady 38, Brees 37, then Rodger will be the only QB i'll spend over $38 and every other QB should cost less than 37.
same deal with RBs when McCoy and Rice go for 48 and 49, therefore, anything below their rank should cost less than 49 and since they are one of the best RBs this year, no other RBs should exceed 50.
I always print out my own cheat sheet with either ADP or price tag and write down drafted $ next to it to give myself better understanding about the money flow in this auction.
Always try to be minority in the league. If there's many conservative bidder, then you should be aggressive bidder and target elite players, and if it's the opposite, then let all the aggressive bidder start the bidding war and wait on it. This way you know you'll always have less competition and get you a better deal.
I think the draft went really well. The 24 hour time limit was a lot of time to throw out bids to try and pull money out of other people. I got caught up in that a few times but didn't get burnt too bad. I think I have a very balanced team, especially for PPR format. I am looking at 2 RB's who finished in the top 6 RB's last year. Roddy White is very solid. I have a very solid QB in Romo. Miles Austin as my #2, I was happy with that. I am looking for a bounce back year for Mike Williams, especially with VJax opening up the middle for Williams. Gates at TE I thought was really good value for $11 and I think Jared Cook has a breakout season, $2 was a gift. Murph keeps saying Gostkowski at $4 was so horrible, he was 1st kicker on the board and I tried to bid him up, got stuck with him. But Murph spent you $2 on Akers...$2 is not a big difference?? I was happy to get McGahee for $5? Addai flourished with Peyton at the helm, for $1 I am happy with that value. My 4th and 5th WR's both had over 70 catches last year.
I am very happy with this team but would love to hear other feedback though.
QB: Romo/Flacco RB: McCoy/Sproles/McGahee/?? Spiller maybe? WR: White/Austin/Mike Williams/Crabtree/Nate Washington TE: Gates/Cook K: Gostkowski DEF: Chicago
eaglesrock wrote: Murph keeps saying Gostkowski at $4 was so horrible, he was 1st kicker on the board and I tried to bid him up, got stuck with him. But Murph spent you $2 on Akers...$2 is not a big difference??
My strategy going in was to stick to my pre-draft auction values and let the market dictate how quickly my roster got filled... i.e., if people were going to be conservative with their bidding, I would fill up quickly; conversely, if the market was aggressive (and it was) then I would wait to fill my roster.
It became evident quickly that I wasn't going to get a lot of 1st and 2nd-round type of players, as top RBs, WRs, and QBs went much higher than where my values were set.
I was able to get Gronkowski at $33, which I considered decent value for his expected production vs. what elite WRs were going for.
The only player I paid more than I wanted to was Vick. Coming in, I wanted to secure a top-6 QB, and felt there might be some value opportunity with Vick. coming off a bad 2011. So I waited and watched the "Big 5" QBs roll off the board before digging in on Vick, and it cost me more than I wanted to spend.
But other than Vick, I feel like I got pretty darn good value across the board, loading up on 3rd/4th/5th round types. Guys like Fred Jackson for $24, Jamal Charles for $34, Steve Smith CAR for $22 and Stevie Johnson for $16.
I also think I got the potential steal of the draft with Jahvid Best for $13... there's obviously huge risk, but if he could stay healthy for 13 or 14 games, he could finish as a top-10 RB.
I came in with my usual auction strategy, which is to have one "stud" at each position, and fill in the rest with solid, but not extraordinary players. With that said, I think I definitely over payed for Stafford, especially with his injury history but Luck for $5 is a nice safety blanket I think. But Staff for more than Cam, Brady, Brees, Vick, etc. is bad value.
I am also a bit uneasy having ADP as my #1 back, but was very happy to get CJS near the end. I am very happy with Cruz as my #1 WR, especially since I got him for $24. Graham for $36 was a bit expensive, but I wanted one of the top 2, and actually like him a little better than Gronk considering the number of weapons in NE.
I would say, without a doubt, my biggest mistake was all of my mistakes with money/roster issues. $2 in penalties sounds insignificant, but I'd much rather have $11 dollars for two spots than $9...
Values of note: Eli $17 Cutler $4 Flacco $1 A Brown $9 Torrey $8 R Moss $3 Celek $4
Over pays of note: Foster $59 Stafford $40 All Ks >$1