Needaring2012 wrote:Thanks perfectibilist however, I have to disagree with you on when take a defense because even though they all get that increase, you need one of the better defenses or you're screwed. Last year the #1 defense in our league San Fran scored 464 points thru 16 games. The last place defense Tampa Bay scored only 109 total points thru 16 games. That difference is huge! Even if you go halfway to the defense that ranked 16th (Arizona) they only scored 290 points in our league. Even that is 170 point difference. And as far as waiting to get a defense on waiver wire goes, there will be NO defenses available after the draft. That's how popular they are. Pretty much all 12 teams in the league draft 2-3 defenses each hoping to get one that winds up being a monster.
The problem isn't that all defenses score the same (they don't), it's that they are so terribly, terribly, hard to project.
From what I can find, the 49ers ADP in 2011 drafts was about 15th of all defenses. The Packers were the #2 drafted defense, but finished the year as a middling defense. The Saints were -awful- and were typically drafted to be a started defense.
The Packers were meh last year, and they're being ranked accordingly this year (ESPN has them 12th). But they spent an entire draft focused exclusively on defense, and have a good coordinator. I have them as a top 5 defense in 2012 (and fftoolbox agrees).
So, if you think a run on defenses (6+) is going to occur, sure, you need to grab one, but in general, there's a reason they're late pickups.