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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby MattMillen » Wed Jul 25, 2012 4:37 pm

thanks for the info on graham. i plan on either graham or gronkowski
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Stelly » Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:01 pm

Dawinner127 wrote:
Sex Panther wrote:In the Mocks I've done (and I've done a whole helluva lot) 12 team format on Yahoo (Yahoo sucks I know this), I have seen him go as high as 7th overall and never has he or Gronk made it out of the 2nd round.

Yahoo has his ADP at 16.1

FFcalculator has it at 1.12 in 12 team PPR http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php

FFtoolbox has him at 11 (14.15 ave pick) http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/adp.cfm

Fatasypros has him at 21 (21.8 ave) http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

Getting him in the 3rd is an absolutely obnoxious value and is completely unrealistic come draft day IMO.

That's about on par with thinking you would land Rodgers mid way through the 2nd round.'

Graham was 6th in the NFL in targets last season (150, 9.4/game), 3rd in cathes (99, 6.2/game), 7th in yardage (1310), tied for 4th in TD rec (11), 7th in YPG (81.9).

Graham was the target of Drew Brees more than 25% of the time (25.3%).

The Saints lost Meachem - 60 targets/40 rec/620/6 in 2011

Adrian Arrington is in line to replace him (Meachem). Arrington is in 2008 7th round pick with a total of 9 career receptions.

IMO, witout Payton there to call plays, the Saints are going to lean on their "big dogs" even more than in the past.

Brees has always been TE friendly (Gates in SD, trio of Shockey/Thomas/Graham in 2010 & Shockey/Thomas in 2009)

Prior to Graham going nuts last year, the Saints trio (Shockey/Thomas/Graham) put up a line of 102/983/10 in 2010.

Assuming Graham stays healthy his floor is in the neighborhood of 85/1100/10.

His ceiling is astronomical IMO. He is basically the WR1 (worst case co-WR1 w/ Colston) on a team that throws the ball 39 times a game on average since Brees has been in New Orleans.

If Graham remains the focal point of the Saints passing game (and there are absolutely no indications to say other wise), and gets 25%+ of the looks from Brees - 9.8+ targets per game.

Brees completes 65.9% of his passes for his career. That translates to roughly 26 completions a game. Graham caught exactly 66% of his targets last year - right @ Brees's career comp%, that translates to 6.45 catches per game - 103+ on the season.

Grahams career YPC is 12.8, 6.45 catch/game @ 12.8 YPC = 82.6 YPG, 16 games = 1321.6 yards.

For his career, in the regular season, 12.3 % of his catches go for TD's - 103 catches @ a 12.3% TD rate = 12.7 TD.

103/1322/13 is not a crazy or unattainable line for Graham, that's what he arcing towards. IMO, that isn't his ceiling either.

Another thing that can't be ignored is where they play - in a dome (9 of their 16 games fantasy games this year are in domes, only 2 on the road - Dallas week 16 & Atlanta week 13, their 8th home game is week 17 vs Carolina).

And who they play - the NFC South figures to be a pretty high scoring division.

Couple that with who else they have on their schedule... WAS, KC, GB, SD, DEN, PHI, OAK, SF, NYG, DAL... there's what appears to be a whole lot of scoring going on and 2 (maybe) negative matchups there (2 being NYG & SF, Graham put up 5/103/2 vs SF in the NFC playoffs).

The only game where weather has a reasonable chance at being truly bad is @ NYG Dec 9th (week 14).

IMO, a 120/1500/15 kind of season is not out of the question. Unlikey, but not unreasonable. The benefits of being the favorite target of one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. Also doesn't hurt that he's 6'7", 265, runs a 4.56 40, and has a 38.5 vertical - he is pretty much uncoverable.

Incredible post. Awesome job. This really makes me look at Graham in a different manner. Do you have him ranked higher than someone like Fitzgerald?


Agreed, that is an outstanding post!

One of my leagues does not require a TE, and we can play them in a WR slot. I'm struggling to rank Graham and Gronk in with the top WRs so I will be curious to hear your response here.
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Mizou » Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:28 pm

I'm also very high on the top tier TE guys.

Honestly, I can see Graham pretty much in that same tier of WR as Fitz and Andre Johnson. There's Megatron, who is a step above pretty much everyone, and then there's those guys.

I really wish I had pulled Graham in my draft. I'm actually very disappointed that I got Gronkowski, as Graham was taken about 3 picks before me in the 2nd round. I see Graham putting up numbers more like Gronk last year (except the whole record TDs thing), and Gronk's numbers falling below what Graham had last year.

I have to agree with Panther that getting either of them even close to the 3rd round is nuts. 2nd round, as pretty much the 1st/1nd TEs off the board, or see them as 2nd/3rd WRs off (with 1st being Calvin).
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Stevooo » Thu Jul 26, 2012 12:01 am

Dear Sex Panther,
You are not only a pungent smell but your post is one of the most amazing things I have read on this very forum.
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Sex Panther » Thu Jul 26, 2012 8:58 am

Thanks for the kind words.

In regards to Fitzgerald...

If given the choice at the end of round 1 (12 team PPR), I would go Graham over Fitz.

Reason(s) being:

I think Graham is going to score more fantasy points when all is said and done.

I think Graham is going to catch more passes and I think he's going to score more TD's, Fitz will probably have more yardage.

Fitz will probably (and deservedly so) be the 2nd WR off the board, however, that 2nd tier of guys behind Megatron (and it's a huge gap IMO) is quite large.

Calvin's precieved ceiling is so much higher than any other WR it doesn't make sense to me to be the guy who takes the 2nd WR off the board when there are literally like 10-15 guys who could finish as the 2nd ranked WR come year end.

Fitz, Roddy, Andre, Jennings, Welker, Nicks, Cruz, Marshall, Wallace, Green, Julio... IMO within that group of guys, an arguement can be made for each that they will end up as the number 2 guy come years end.

In addition to that group you have guys like - Austin, Dez, Bowe, Colston, Harvin, Maclin, Nelson, Steve Smith, VJax, DJax, Steve Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Meachem, etc... all in line for good seasons and all with legit shots to put up top 10 PPR (or better) WR numbers.

If I'm drafting at the end of round 1 in a PPR, I'm hoping I come away with Graham & a RB (right now Forte, McFadden, Richardson, MJD & CJ - if the last 2 slide) are what I'm hoping to come away with.

Fitz (or another "elite" WR) is tempting, but IMO, the value at WR is going to slide to the 3/4 turn - same can't be said w/ the TE & RB position.

IMO, RB and TE are very top heavy going into 2012 whereas QB and WR are both extraordinarily deep.

Chances are you miss out on that first group of Fitz, Roddy, Andre, Jennings, Welker, Nicks, Cruz, Marshall, Wallace, Green, Julio at 3/4, but there is a chance one of these guys slides (in mocks I've done Nicks is the most common guy, but Julio and Wallace are some times available).

3 guys I'm very high on are Colston, Harvin, and Bryant - all 3 of them are basically always available at the 3/4 turn.

So, my plan going into drafts where I'm at the end is to land Graham + a pass catching back that is going to get his touches at the 1/2 turn. I lock up my RB1 spot and basically plug in an elite WR1 in my TE slot. At round 2 I want to come away with 2 WR's with legit shots at top 10 WR finishes (if I were drafting today, those 2 who I know would be there and who I would take are Harvin and Colston).
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Cuffs » Thu Jul 26, 2012 10:39 pm

Sex Panther wrote:Thanks for the kind words.

In regards to Fitzgerald...

If given the choice at the end of round 1 (12 team PPR), I would go Graham over Fitz.

Reason(s) being:

I think Graham is going to score more fantasy points when all is said and done.

I think Graham is going to catch more passes and I think he's going to score more TD's, Fitz will probably have more yardage.

Fitz will probably (and deservedly so) be the 2nd WR off the board, however, that 2nd tier of guys behind Megatron (and it's a huge gap IMO) is quite large.

Calvin's precieved ceiling is so much higher than any other WR it doesn't make sense to me to be the guy who takes the 2nd WR off the board when there are literally like 10-15 guys who could finish as the 2nd ranked WR come year end.

Fitz, Roddy, Andre, Jennings, Welker, Nicks, Cruz, Marshall, Wallace, Green, Julio... IMO within that group of guys, an arguement can be made for each that they will end up as the number 2 guy come years end.

In addition to that group you have guys like - Austin, Dez, Bowe, Colston, Harvin, Maclin, Nelson, Steve Smith, VJax, DJax, Steve Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Lloyd, Antonio Brown, Meachem, etc... all in line for good seasons and all with legit shots to put up top 10 PPR (or better) WR numbers.

If I'm drafting at the end of round 1 in a PPR, I'm hoping I come away with Graham & a RB (right now Forte, McFadden, Richardson, MJD & CJ - if the last 2 slide) are what I'm hoping to come away with.

Fitz (or another "elite" WR) is tempting, but IMO, the value at WR is going to slide to the 3/4 turn - same can't be said w/ the TE & RB position.

IMO, RB and TE are very top heavy going into 2012 whereas QB and WR are both extraordinarily deep.

Chances are you miss out on that first group of Fitz, Roddy, Andre, Jennings, Welker, Nicks, Cruz, Marshall, Wallace, Green, Julio at 3/4, but there is a chance one of these guys slides (in mocks I've done Nicks is the most common guy, but Julio and Wallace are some times available).

3 guys I'm very high on are Colston, Harvin, and Bryant - all 3 of them are basically always available at the 3/4 turn.

So, my plan going into drafts where I'm at the end is to land Graham + a pass catching back that is going to get his touches at the 1/2 turn. I lock up my RB1 spot and basically plug in an elite WR1 in my TE slot. At round 2 I want to come away with 2 WR's with legit shots at top 10 WR finishes (if I were drafting today, those 2 who I know would be there and who I would take are Harvin and Colston).


$h**, you pretty much wrote out my draft strategy for me here. Thanks for that.
Last edited by m16a on Thu Jul 26, 2012 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby RamMan81 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 11:41 am

Gronk or Graham... Hardest decision for me this year.
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Fri Jul 27, 2012 11:45 am

RamMan81 wrote:Gronk or Graham... Hardest decision for me this year.


Flip a coin. I'd be stoked to get either one of them in the 2nd round.
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Mr.Joshua » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:05 pm

I would put Graham 1st, only because he has less competition than Gronk. Plus he has a better verticle game.
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Re: Jimmy Graham

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:07 pm

Mr.Joshua wrote:I would put Graham 1st, only because he has less competition thank Gronk. Plus he has a better verticle game.


Agree with this, New England added pieces to their offense in the offseason. New Orleans lost one of their major contributors in Meachem.
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