Jimmy Graham

[Mizou]

Agreed. Gronkowski, despite his insane numbers last year, was also a bit up-and-down. There were some weeks that he just put out stinkers for me. Graham was Brees' favorite target- and that isn't likely to change.

[ooRAIXoo]

Jimmy Graham is going in the 3rd round in a lot of mocks I am doing which is worth it in my eyes.

Not sure where you are mocking or size of league.

In the Mocks I've done (and I've done a whole helluva lot) 12 team format on Yahoo (Yahoo sucks I know this), I have seen him go as high as 7th overall and never has he or Gronk made it out of the 2nd round.

Yahoo has his ADP at 16.1

FFcalculator has it at 1.12 in 12 team PPR http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php

FFtoolbox has him at 11 (14.15 ave pick) http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/adp.cfm

Fatasypros has him at 21 (21.8 ave) http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

Getting him in the 3rd is an absolutely obnoxious value and is completely unrealistic come draft day IMO.

That's about on par with thinking you would land Rodgers mid way through the 2nd round.

Graham was 6th in the NFL in targets last season (150, 9.4/game), 3rd in cathes (99, 6.2/game), 7th in yardage (1310), tied for 4th in TD rec (11), 7th in YPG (81.9).

Graham was the target of Drew Brees more than 25% of the time (25.3%).

The Saints lost Meachem - 60 targets/40 rec/620/6 in 2011

Adrian Arrington is in line to replace him (Meachem). Arrington is in 2008 7th round pick with a total of 9 career receptions.

IMO, witout Payton there to call plays, the Saints are going to lean on their "big dogs" even more than in the past.

Brees has always been TE friendly (Gates in SD, trio of Shockey/Thomas/Graham in 2010 & Shockey/Thomas in 2009)

Prior to Graham going nuts last year, the Saints trio (Shockey/Thomas/Graham) put up a line of 102/983/10 in 2010.

Assuming Graham stays healthy his floor is in the neighborhood of 85/1100/10.

His ceiling is astronomical IMO. He is basically the WR1 (worst case co-WR1 w/ Colston) on a team that throws the ball 39 times a game on average since Brees has been in New Orleans.

If Graham remains the focal point of the Saints passing game (and there are absolutely no indications to say other wise), and gets 25%+ of the looks from Brees - 9.8+ targets per game.

Brees completes 65.9% of his passes for his career. That translates to roughly 26 completions a game. Graham caught exactly 66% of his targets last year - right @ Brees's career comp%, that translates to 6.45 catches per game - 103+ on the season.

Grahams career YPC is 12.8, 6.45 catch/game @ 12.8 YPC = 82.6 YPG, 16 games = 1321.6 yards.

For his career, in the regular season, 12.3 % of his catches go for TD's - 103 catches @ a 12.3% TD rate = 12.7 TD.

103/1322/13 is not a crazy or unattainable line for Graham, that's what he arcing towards. IMO, that isn't his ceiling either.

Another thing that can't be ignored is where they play - in a dome (9 of their 16 games fantasy games this year are in domes, only 2 on the road - Dallas week 16 & Atlanta week 13, their 8th home game is week 17 vs Carolina).

And who they play - the NFC South figures to be a pretty high scoring division.

Couple that with who else they have on their schedule... WAS, KC, GB, SD, DEN, PHI, OAK, SF, NYG, DAL... there's what appears to be a whole lot of scoring going on and 2 (maybe) negative matchups there (2 being NYG & SF, Graham put up 5/103/2 vs SF in the NFC playoffs).

The only game where weather has a reasonable chance at being truly bad is @ NYG Dec 9th (week 14).

IMO, a 120/1500/15 kind of season is not out of the question. Unlikey, but not unreasonable. The benefits of being the favorite target of one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. Also doesn't hurt that he's 6'7", 265, runs a 4.56 40, and has a 38.5 vertical - he is pretty much uncoverable.

That is Legit! Thank you! Great post! This made me feel a lot better for keeping Brees and Graham in my keeper league and letting go of some studs. Best thing is I picked up Graham undrafted last year and only lose a 12th round pick for him. Sweet! I am definately following your posts from now on.. Bear Down..

[Dirt McGirt]

While this was a great post, rather than telling you nice post (which it was) like the rest I want to put a different spin on this.

1. In 12 man leagues Id be willing to bet that ATLEAST 1 out of every 3 owners is thinking about graham or gronk at the turn. Whichever one isnt picked at the turn will be off the board by pick 16 IMO.

Someone asked earlier in the thread where these guys would fall vs all pass catchers.
1. Calvin

2. Fitz
3. Graham
4. Gronk
5. Andre
6. Jennings
7. Welker
8. Julio
9. AJ Green
10. Nicks
...
...
...
15+ COLSTON

Which brings me to my spin, and you touched on this in your original thread saying that they will be "leaning on their big dogs" as you worded it it I believe. Last year was my first year ever as a Colston owner and I enjoyed the ride. Towards the end of the year when teams finally started game planning around trying to hold jimmy graham down here is what Colston did...

Week 14: 7/105/2
Week 15: 8/91/0
Week 16: 7/81/1
Week 17: 7/145/2
Playoffs
WC: 7/120/0
Div: 9/136/1

I think teams are going to game plan around Jimmy Graham this year much the way teams did towards the end of last year/playoffs. Take a good look at those numbers Colston put up and ask yourself this. Would I be better off picking jimmy graham picks 12-16 or wait until the 4th round and scoop up colston?

(obviously i understand the position clash there and the adv in having a tight end who can do those things but just based on potential output vs ADP I believe Colston has as much value as anyone in the draft this year.)

[benb18a]

I would put Graham above Fitz right now TBH. He has higher potential especially for TDs in that offense IMHO. Right now he is the leader of that second tier with Fitz and then Gronk leads the third tier.

[Sex Panther]

While this was a great post, rather than telling you nice post (which it was) like the rest I want to put a different spin on this.

1. In 12 man leagues Id be willing to bet that ATLEAST 1 out of every 3 owners is thinking about graham or gronk at the turn. Whichever one isnt picked at the turn will be off the board by pick 16 IMO.

Someone asked earlier in the thread where these guys would fall vs all pass catchers.
1. Calvin

2. Fitz
3. Graham
4. Gronk
5. Andre
6. Jennings
7. Welker
8. Julio
9. AJ Green
10. Nicks
...
...
...
15+ COLSTON

Which brings me to my spin, and you touched on this in your original thread saying that they will be "leaning on their big dogs" as you worded it it I believe. Last year was my first year ever as a Colston owner and I enjoyed the ride. Towards the end of the year when teams finally started game planning around trying to hold jimmy graham down here is what Colston did...

Week 14: 7/105/2
Week 15: 8/91/0
Week 16: 7/81/1
Week 17: 7/145/2
Playoffs
WC: 7/120/0
Div: 9/136/1

I think teams are going to game plan around Jimmy Graham this year much the way teams did towards the end of last year/playoffs. Take a good look at those numbers Colston put up and ask yourself this. Would I be better off picking jimmy graham picks 12-16 or wait until the 4th round and scoop up colston?

(obviously i understand the position clash there and the adv in having a tight end who can do those things but just based on potential output vs ADP I believe Colston has as much value as anyone in the draft this year.)

I'm pretty high on Colston myslef.

That said, I have absolutely no problem drafting both (which I've done twice thus far).

IMO, Those 2 are going to account for 50% or better of the Saints rec. numbers - somewhere around 2400ish yards, 18ish TD, 200ish receptions (all but recpetions on the low end) - assuming of course Brees doesn't regress from his 4 year averages of 4888 yards, 423 completions, 36 TD.

For his career, Colston has averaged 5.2 catches, 72.6 yards, .6 TD a game - 83/1161/10 extrapolated over a 16 game schedule.

Colston IMO is in line for a 90 catch/1200 yard/10 TD season in his own right (and represents a tremendous value in draft atm).

I've always been a believer in drafting guys from what appear to be elite offenses, so I have no problem owning multiple guys from the same team, others aren't a big fan of this.

[Dawinner127]

This is my predicament with Graham. After the top 5 are off the board (Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Calvin), is it crazy to go after Graham in the 6th position? I can't imagine taking Brees or Brady at 6 because of the depth at QB in the later rounds, but I also don't trust the MJD situation in Jax and Chris Johnson is a huge ? mark. Who are you going to get? CJ1k or CJ2k?

[ravendan]

how about if you have a league where there is no TE designation, it is a 3 WR and a WR/TE Flex position. Where do you put Graham on his own compared to the other WR's? i think I have him somewhere around 6 overall without the positon advantage.

[Dirt McGirt]

how about if you have a league where there is no TE designation, it is a 3 WR and a WR/TE Flex position. Where do you put Graham on his own compared to the other WR's? i think I have him somewhere around 6 overall without the positon advantage.

Who are your 5 pass catchers you have above graham?

[Sex Panther]

how about if you have a league where there is no TE designation, it is a 3 WR and a WR/TE Flex position. Where do you put Graham on his own compared to the other WR's? i think I have him somewhere around 6 overall without the positon advantage.

I'd honestly put him at 2, behind Megatron and Megatron only.

[ravendan]

In the league where all pass-catchers are equal i would go... Calvin, Larry, marshall, Welker, Roddy (I seem to be in the minority on where i have him ranked WELL ahead of Julio and the other guys), then Graham...then the nicks, Cruz,Colston, Green etc...