Sex Panther wrote:
Wood Chipper wrote:Jimmy Graham is going in the 3rd round in a lot of mocks I am doing which is worth it in my eyes.
Not sure where you are mocking or size of league.
In the Mocks I've done (and I've done a whole helluva lot) 12 team format on Yahoo (Yahoo sucks I know this), I have seen him go as high as 7th overall and never has he or Gronk made it out of the 2nd round.
Yahoo has his ADP at 16.1
FFcalculator has it at 1.12 in 12 team PPR http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php
FFtoolbox has him at 11 (14.15 ave pick) http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/adp.cfm
Fatasypros has him at 21 (21.8 ave) http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php
Getting him in the 3rd is an absolutely obnoxious value and is completely unrealistic come draft day IMO.
That's about on par with thinking you would land Rodgers mid way through the 2nd round.
Graham was 6th in the NFL in targets last season (150, 9.4/game), 3rd in cathes (99, 6.2/game), 7th in yardage (1310), tied for 4th in TD rec (11), 7th in YPG (81.9).
Graham was the target of Drew Brees more than 25% of the time (25.3%).
The Saints lost Meachem - 60 targets/40 rec/620/6 in 2011
Adrian Arrington is in line to replace him (Meachem). Arrington is in 2008 7th round pick with a total of 9 career receptions.
IMO, witout Payton there to call plays, the Saints are going to lean on their "big dogs" even more than in the past.
Brees has always been TE friendly (Gates in SD, trio of Shockey/Thomas/Graham in 2010 & Shockey/Thomas in 2009)
Prior to Graham going nuts last year, the Saints trio (Shockey/Thomas/Graham) put up a line of 102/983/10 in 2010.
Assuming Graham stays healthy his floor is in the neighborhood of 85/1100/10.
His ceiling is astronomical IMO. He is basically the WR1 (worst case co-WR1 w/ Colston) on a team that throws the ball 39 times a game on average since Brees has been in New Orleans.
If Graham remains the focal point of the Saints passing game (and there are absolutely no indications to say other wise), and gets 25%+ of the looks from Brees - 9.8+ targets per game.
Brees completes 65.9% of his passes for his career. That translates to roughly 26 completions a game. Graham caught exactly 66% of his targets last year - right @ Brees's career comp%, that translates to 6.45 catches per game - 103+ on the season.
Grahams career YPC is 12.8, 6.45 catch/game @ 12.8 YPC = 82.6 YPG, 16 games = 1321.6 yards.
For his career, in the regular season, 12.3 % of his catches go for TD's - 103 catches @ a 12.3% TD rate = 12.7 TD.
103/1322/13 is not a crazy or unattainable line for Graham, that's what he arcing towards. IMO, that isn't his ceiling either.
Another thing that can't be ignored is where they play - in a dome (9 of their 16 games fantasy games this year are in domes, only 2 on the road - Dallas week 16 & Atlanta week 13, their 8th home game is week 17 vs Carolina).
And who they play - the NFC South figures to be a pretty high scoring division.
Couple that with who else they have on their schedule... WAS, KC, GB, SD, DEN, PHI, OAK, SF, NYG, DAL... there's what appears to be a whole lot of scoring going on and 2 (maybe) negative matchups there (2 being NYG & SF, Graham put up 5/103/2 vs SF in the NFC playoffs).
The only game where weather has a reasonable chance at being truly bad is @ NYG Dec 9th (week 14).
IMO, a 120/1500/15 kind of season is not out of the question. Unlikey, but not unreasonable. The benefits of being the favorite target of one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. Also doesn't hurt that he's 6'7", 265, runs a 4.56 40, and has a 38.5 vertical - he is pretty much uncoverable.