First, when looking at ADP values, how do people generally adjust them for keeper leagues. I am in a league where you keep a player in the round they were drafted in the previous year. 10 teams, 30 max keepers.
So, if I have a player listed on a couple websites with an ADP value of 33, or round 4, pick 3, How should I inperpret that ADP value for my keeper league?
Second question. My league also allows each team to pick their draft spot, last place picks first. Basically, I have the option of picking the 4th overall pick, or the 7th overall pick. However, I am keeping Ray Rice as my first round pick, and Wes Welker as my 4th round pick. I am leaning toward the 4th overall pick, as it will improve my 5th round spot, where flipping the 2nd and 3rd round spots I dont think will really make much difference.
Usually when you have three keepers using redraft ADPs are fine. I would rate a couple players higher/lower because of their age or situation. I agree with you that the 4th slot is better for you team.
I agree, picking 4 would be better, you'd lose a little value at round 2, but you would move up in round 3. Your round 4 would be late, but you are using a keeper at that spot, and your round 5 will be better. Overall, I think it helps you out better.
As far as the ADP thing, its hard to say because it all depends who is kept, as not all of those "top 30" guys are going to be kept once you account for value and such. I think you have to wait to see who all is kept, and then make your rankings based off who is left. Just cuz a guy is valued at 33 and 30 guys are kept, that doesn't mean he will be the 3rd best player there.
nightfox422 wrote:Does this make sense? Here is my thinking.
Take a guy like Darren McFadden. His ADP in PPR is about 10 overall. Of the 30 keepers, 4 of them have a higher ADP, but are being kept in rounds after the 1.10 pick. So I adjust his ADP to 6 overall
Basically, what I am saying, is take any player, figure out how many of the keepers have a higher ADP but are being kept in a later round than said players, ADP, and subtract that from the ADP.
Yup that's basically right.
The only thing that can skew this is positional need. If someone drafting before you is keeping 2 running backs, they wouldn't' necessarily be in the market for DMC. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.