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Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

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Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby tat2matt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:46 pm

12 team PPR/IDP league, 1st year of doing keepers. 2 offense, 1 IDP. Keeper loses same round as drafted last year.

I have the first overall pick in a serpentine draft. I am keeping MJD because he was taken in the 2nd last year, and because I have the last pick of the 2nd, I figure he is value there even with the threat of a hold-out. I am also keeping Reggie Bush because he only costs me a 17th round pick. I didn't have any other offensive players that were better value, last year was rough.

Here's my situation with #1: Foster, McCoy, and Rodgers are kept. My obvious choices are Ray Rice, Brees, and Megatron. Given that I am taking a chance on MJD, do I solidify my RB spot with Rice? Or do I pass on Rice, pick up Jennings as a handcuff later on and hope MJD plays and Bush stays healthy (and produces as he did last year)?

Do I take Brees, knowing that I won't have a shot at any other top-tier QB? Or do I settle for someone like Rivers or Romo who could potentially have a decent QB season at the beginning of 3 or end of 4?

Or, do I take Johnson, knowing that he has some massive games, then maybe take another top-end WR at the beginning of 3 and build a solid WR core?

Or, do I just say "screw it", draft Peyton #1 because I am a Broncos homer and then laugh my way to the title?

Any suggestions are welcome.
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby sabercats » Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:54 pm

I will take Ray Rice and MJD, Brees and Megatron.
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby Jason497 » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:05 pm

tat2matt wrote:Or, do I just say "screw it", draft Peyton #1 because I am a Broncos homer and then laugh my way to the title?

Any suggestions are welcome.


Image


Take Ray Rice.
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby yualreadyknow » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:06 pm

Wow, that's a lot. LOL

Safe choice is go with either Brees, Megatron, or Rice for your first pick.
If I heard you right, you only have 2 offensive keepers and you already kept MJD. That situation scares me as he might actually hold out due to the team's RB situation and his concern about how he is being paid while being NFL leading rusher.

What you have on your roster is what will make all the difference in answering this.

If you have decent RB and WR help now, get Brees (whom you can have for the next 4 or 5 years) and expect better than decent production out of him. He spreads the ball around and that's PPR-sweet for you. Plus they don't run as much as other teams.

Mega will get you TDs regardless of double teams and having Young and Burleson running interference on the other side. He should see a lot of targets and it will be extremely hard to find a WR of his caliber. Locking him in now would be wise.

Rice is a stud and if you are playing both he and MJD, you can't lose. Worst case scenario, you can spin either for a blockbuster trade at some point.

Without seeing your roster, I would say:
Mega 45%
Brees 35%
Rice 20%
Choose Mega!
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby tat2matt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:41 pm

Jason497 wrote:
tat2matt wrote:Or, do I just say "screw it", draft Peyton #1 because I am a Broncos homer and then laugh my way to the title?

Any suggestions are welcome.


Image


Take Ray Rice.


HA. I will be drinking, but not that much...
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby tat2matt » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:43 pm

yualreadyknow wrote:Wow, that's a lot. LOL

Safe choice is go with either Brees, Megatron, or Rice for your first pick.
If I heard you right, you only have 2 offensive keepers and you already kept MJD. That situation scares me as he might actually hold out due to the team's RB situation and his concern about how he is being paid while being NFL leading rusher.

What you have on your roster is what will make all the difference in answering this.

If you have decent RB and WR help now, get Brees (whom you can have for the next 4 or 5 years) and expect better than decent production out of him. He spreads the ball around and that's PPR-sweet for you. Plus they don't run as much as other teams.

Mega will get you TDs regardless of double teams and having Young and Burleson running interference on the other side. He should see a lot of targets and it will be extremely hard to find a WR of his caliber. Locking him in now would be wise.

Rice is a stud and if you are playing both he and MJD, you can't lose. Worst case scenario, you can spin either for a blockbuster trade at some point.

Without seeing your roster, I would say:
Mega 45%
Brees 35%
Rice 20%
Choose Mega!


I don't have any true top tier WR to keep. I'm keeping MJD and Bush because both get a lot of touches as the focus of their offense, and are good value. Being PPR, I know Rice or Megatron are safe bets, I'm just not sure if I should stack RB or WR. I like Megatron as a home-run hitter, but Rice might be more reliable...
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby yualreadyknow » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:49 pm

Rice is more reliable but MJD is not a guarantee to sit out the entire season. IF that was the case, then I would take Rice too. I guess seeing the rest of the roster might help a little. I don't know what you have at RB and WR.
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby Mizou » Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:52 am

My thought here would be to keep Rice. Whether or not MJD holds out, Rice is a great pick here. Think of MJD showing up as a bonus that makes your RB crew completely rock solid. If he doesn't, you have Rice, Bush, and later picks.

I'd be tempted with Brees, so that you could have Brees MJD/Bush, then the rest of your draft, but you'd be pretty murky at WR and RB. If you choose Rice, your RB squad is strong enough to overcome the WR murk.

I don't think I'd choose Megatron at all in this situation.

So.. my answer is to take Rice, continue with your keepers, then in the 3/4 turn take WRs, or WR/QB (Romo type). There should be enough decent WRs left in your pool at your 3/4 picks to make this a solid enough roster.
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby murphysxm » Tue Jul 31, 2012 8:10 am

You take Ray Rice everytime. You will have strength at RB and be able to grab WR and QB value while everybody else is reaching for RB's in the middle rounds. You are thinking too much. Ray Rice should be your choice.
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Re: Interesting First Pick Situation (WHIR)

Postby srlarson » Tue Jul 31, 2012 8:39 am

Take Rice, the RB's are the weakest group i have seen in 20+ years of ffl.....so to get two of the top 5, lock it down.....still get Jennings earlier than anyone else thinks to protect yourself. Easiest way to trade is from strength in a weak position.

Good Luck!!
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