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Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

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Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby Fantasy Football Sucker » Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:22 pm

I feel like I'm in a bind.

My league has not drafted yet, but I know I am going to be drafting #4 (it is reverse of last year's finishing order). In EVERY mock draft I've done (about 6 or 7) Aaron Rodgers has been available at #4 -- there is really no way to NOT take him. He can cover-up for a lot of shortcomings in other areas of the team, so I can't see myself not drafting him, IF available.

My question is, should I draft a RB or WR in round 2? The top 5 or 6 RB will definitely be off the board by my 2nd round pick (Foster, Rice, McCoy, Johnson, Matthews) -- in about 50% of my mocks, Forte and Lynch have been gone as well as Trent Richardson. I like what I'm hearing about Doug Martin -- I'd be comfortable with him if available.

Anybody have a reason to push more towards RB or WR for 2nd round pick? I've got basically everything mapped out as I can, other than what to do position wise in Rd 2.

My league is 12-team, standard scoring. I'm going to push for PPR with bonus over 100 yards rushing/receiving and 300 passing.

Any input would be greatly appreciated.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby murphysxm » Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:32 pm

If you take a QB at #4, I believe you almost have to take a RB in 2. WR is much deeper than RB. However, I wouldn't take Rodgers, I'd rather have Matthews, but you may already know that.....

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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby moochman » Tue Jul 31, 2012 7:20 pm

Agree with Murph, too early to take a QB. Take the best stud RB available and consider a QB with the second rnd if you feel the pressure. The drop off between the very best RBs and the others is far greater than the diff between Rodgers vs whoever you can get in the second or third rnd.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Tue Jul 31, 2012 7:52 pm

If a stud RB is available at #4, and there's no reason to think there won't be one, I can't say that taking the quarterback would be a sensible choice. Here's why:

If you take a running back early, and you think he's a stud who you can build your team around, you take him and grab a strong quarterback like Eli Manning or Matt Ryan in the later rounds. That will give you a strong RB and strong QB.

If you take an elite QB early, you're pretty much screwed at RB. On the way back in the 2nd round you'll have options to take guys like Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson or Michael Turner - but all of those players have major question marks (e.g. Turner & Jackson are 30+, Lynch could face a suspension, etc...) At that point, you'd almost be better off taking a stud WR or TE and waiting on a RB til later.

The real issue, in a nutshell, is that the dropoff at RB is far more severe than the dropoff at QB when picking in the subsequent rounds. It's much easier to guess who will be a top scorer at QB when picking in the 4th than it is to guess who will be a productive running back at that point in the draft.

Take the running back and don't look back.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby Sex Panther » Wed Aug 01, 2012 3:34 pm

No way I'd take Rodgers at 4 myself.

Foster/McCoy/Rice/Mathews all make more sense in a non PPR.

I would imagine RB will be held in high esteem, so as many as 9 may go in the 1st round...

The afore mentioned 4 + MJD (depending on his hold out), CJ2K, McFadden, Forte, Richardson.

Slim pickings in terms of stud RB on the way back to you.

WR will take a slight hit w/ no PPR, that fine IMO - only 1 guy makes sense to take in the first anyways - Megatron.

Somebody will take Rodgers, just don't let it be you.

WR is retardedly deep.

Mediocre RBBC RB are all over the place.

QB is insanely deep...

I would much rather start my squad w/ a top 4 RB and build around him than grab a top tier QB @ 4 and try and piec e a roster around him.

Nothing would suck worse on draft day if you take Rodgers at 1.04 & when 2.09 comes around there's Tom Brady or Drew Brees starring you in the face.

Even if that doesn't happen, at some point in the draft you will come across some QB somewhere you're going to like a whole lot more than what you have to pick from at other postions...

Grabbing Rodgers at 1.04 and seeing Romo or Rivers there at 5.04 or Ryan there at 7.04 will really get frustrating.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby chchelse » Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:51 pm

Sex Panther wrote:No way I'd take Rodgers at 4 myself.

Foster/McCoy/Rice/Mathews all make more sense in a non PPR.

I would imagine RB will be held in high esteem, so as many as 9 may go in the 1st round...

The afore mentioned 4 + MJD (depending on his hold out), CJ2K, McFadden, Forte, Richardson.

Slim pickings in terms of stud RB on the way back to you.

WR will take a slight hit w/ no PPR, that fine IMO - only 1 guy makes sense to take in the first anyways - Megatron.

Somebody will take Rodgers, just don't let it be you.

WR is retardedly deep.

Mediocre RBBC RB are all over the place.

QB is insanely deep...

I would much rather start my squad w/ a top 4 RB and build around him than grab a top tier QB @ 4 and try and piec e a roster around him.

Nothing would suck worse on draft day if you take Rodgers at 1.04 & when 2.09 comes around there's Tom Brady or Drew Brees starring you in the face.

Even if that doesn't happen, at some point in the draft you will come across some QB somewhere you're going to like a whole lot more than what you have to pick from at other postions...

Grabbing Rodgers at 1.04 and seeing Romo or Rivers there at 5.04 or Ryan there at 7.04 will really get frustrating.


I totally agree wth this post except possibly the bolded sentence. There are 12 QB I can live with and possibly 2-3 other QB's that could move into the QB1 category. By current ADP's you could get P. Manning at 5.09, Ryan at 6.10 or Roethlisberger at 7.06. There are anywhere from 30-40 WR that I would want on my team. In the 3rd round you could grab J Jones, AJ Green, H. Nicks, V Cruz, M Wallace, B Marshall or Roddy White. In the 4th one could grab M Colston, P Harvin, M Austin, J Nelson, S Smith, D Thomas or Dez Bryant. In the 5th S Johnson, V Jackson, J Maclin and D Bowe ae available. 6th round Desean Jackson, A Brown, B Lloyd. 7th or later you can grab Decker T. Smith, D. Moore, R Wayne P. Garcon, and any others that could put up solid WR2 numbers.

Thus, I believe that the ridiculously large amounts of quality WR's decreases Calvin Johnson's value considerably. Would you rather have Megatron at 5 and whatever dreck is left at RB with your 20th pick (think A Bradshaw, R Bush, F. Jackson, S Green) and even worse RB options later in the draft, or would you rather take a chance with C Johnson or D McFadden at 5 then grab Jennings in the 2nd, Marshall in the 3rd and Colston in the 4th (we start 3 WR).

I think RB are at a greater premium than ever this year and even though almost all of them have question marks after the top 3, I will still be grabbing them early and often. The teams that get 2-3 solid RB's this year will be the teams to beat, IMO.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby Sex Panther » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:03 pm

That's what I was sayin, only WR worth a 1st rounder, and IMO only after the 1st 4 RB are gone (and then only consideration IMO, not a done deal.

Foster/Rice/McCoy/Mathews should be the 1st 4 off the board IMO.

Then you can start making the arguement for Calvin.

MJD is holding out
CJ2K is coming off a bad year (and reports out of TEN are saying he could see less touches in their new offense)
DMC is made of glass
Forte doesn't score enough and no PPR he takes a hit
Richardson is a rookie (I think he'll be fantastic, but no track record at this level)

Megatron has 20 TD upside, in a non PPR, I wouldn't take him at 5, but the arguement can be made, and he will surely be drafted in the 1st round.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby murphysxm » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:11 pm

I agree with both Panther and chchelse. There is zero argument that Megatron is a stud and it's fairly safe to say worst case he finishes top 5 in his position. Knowing you are getting almost guaranteed production in round 1 is huge. I also agree that the WR crop is so deep that his value is diminished. I won't own him this year, because I don't take him until Foster, McCoy, Rice, Matthews, CJ1k, Rodgers and McFadden are off the board. That simply won't happen in any leagues, but I see the value he provides in 1, I just want him at the end of the round.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby Wood Chipper » Thu Aug 02, 2012 7:54 pm

In all honesty I would go with Rodgers or Calvin Johnson if you want a guaranteed stud. If you really are gonna grab a RB then get Mathews or CJ2K.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers at #4 -- then what?

Postby Pack Fan in HTown » Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:22 pm

In back to back mocks I did over the weekend I saw Rodgers go #1. Dont be so quick to assume he will be there. But... That being said given the flux in RBs every year if you can't get a top 3 RB at hat spot then you want a consistent point scorer and that is where you will find great value for Rodgers. If he is there at 4 I am tacking him... But that's just me.

Whoever you choose In round one needs to be someone you can rely on over the season so base your pick on that.

It seems to me every year you can find a surprise RB in the middle rounds and the draft strategy to take a QB early will allow you to pick up another value QB really late while focusing on the WR and RBs in those important middle rounds.

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