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Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

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Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby jackarmani » Thu Aug 02, 2012 3:56 pm

I'm in a league now for the 4th year running. All the players are the same so i'm wondering is it possible to guess what positions guys will take in the draft (at least in the first few rounds)?

The league is standard scoring (6 points rush/rec TD, 3 points pass TD): Start 1qb,2rb,2wr,1te,1d

The reason I ask is that I really like Jimmy Graham this year but i don't know whether to wait till the 3rd round to take him?

I have the 9th pick out of 12 teams, so my 2nd round pick is number 16 and my 3rd round pick is 33.


Looking at the last 2 years 0TE's have ever been taken in the first 2 rounds and only 1TE each year has been taken in round 3 (antonio gates twice). Is that enough to hold off to pick up Larry Fitzgerald/Roddy White/Ryan Matthews in the 2nd?
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby Jason497 » Thu Aug 02, 2012 4:09 pm

There's no way Jimmy Graham is making it to your 3rd round pick, so if you want him that bad you gotta hope he falls to 16.

The fact that you start only 2 WRs with no flex makes it even more likely he gets picked early.
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby dagnuk » Thu Aug 02, 2012 4:15 pm

No, you aren't going to be able to predict the drafting patterns of the other 11 owners. People are unpredictable. For example, for the past 2-3 years, I have drafted WR/WR with my first 2 picks when drafting at the end of round 1. In the same position for this season, I am leaning at qb/rb or rb/rb.

And then, you have to factor in that Gronkowski and Graham are being projected as 2nd round picks on a lot of websites. This alone makes your landing either with the 9th pick in the 3rd round a long-shot.

Good luck.
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby kcwins » Thu Aug 02, 2012 4:17 pm

I wouldn't draft him with your second round pick. You'll have too many other needed to spend a pick on a TE here. IF he's there in the 3rd round I'd consider it. Also, Ryan Matthews will be gone by the time you draft in the 2nd round. I believe he'll go between 8-11 overall depending on your starting line up composition. Is this a keeper league by chance?
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby Mizou » Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:50 pm

I don't think you can predict accurately who drafts what, but you can get the general idea if you've been around them that long.

That being said, as others have mentioned, there's pretty much no chance Graham or Gronk get to your 3rd round pick. If you want him that bad, you're going to have to take him with your 2nd. If you're really unsure, and there's nobody you like in the 1st, you might just take him there and get it done with, then take whoever remains of the group you liked in the 2nd. As Jason mentioned, your league's setup might raise the value on the elite TEs, and one of the guys in 10-12 might have the same idea as you and take him in picks 13-15.
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby murphysxm » Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:59 pm

you'll have to jump on him in the 2nd if you want him. If you go that route, I'd take a RB in 1
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby Pack Fan in HTown » Thu Aug 02, 2012 7:26 pm

I am with these guys here.... I have mock drafting pretty regular about 20 so far and he and gronk are gone in round 2.
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby BurritoBoy » Fri Aug 03, 2012 12:40 am

Gronk and Graham have been going rd2 in almost all of my 10 team mocks, and all of my 12s. You'd have to take him rd 2, unless people just totally overlook him. And nobody picked a TE until rd3 cuz we've never had a TE produce crazy numbers like Gronk and Graham have, let alone 2 TEs...If one falls to you in rd 3 thats a great value especially in a 12 teamer. But I don't think it's worth taking a TE in rd 2
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Re: Trying to guess the draft - when to take Jimmy Graham?

Postby TorMenT » Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:02 am

I agree with everyone else I do not see him falling to the 3rd round. Take him in 2 if you want him that bad, or pray for a miracle in round 3.
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