QB Strategy - after the "Big 4 +Cam"

[saemick]

I'll preface this with the fact I rarely to never draft a QB early, so I generally won't get the likes of Rodgers, Brady, Brees, or Stafford (this year) as they're too rich for my blood. And while I'm a fan of Cam; he's going too early for me to feel comfortable as well.

I've seen posts on the later QB's and the top ones, but not so much on the ones falling in between.

Which brings me to my question/ topic:

What are your strategies / takes on the next tier(s) of QB's?

I'm generally targeting 1-2 RB's in rounds 1-3 as well as my top 1-2 WR's there. That being said, I'm typically seeing:

Vick / Romo there in the 4th round (sometimes 5th depending on site rankings)
Manning(s) / Rivers in the 5-6th rounds
and then the Ryan, Cutler, Big Ben, etc...

When thinking of a QB strategy, I find myself really tempted to grab Vick in the 4th and backing him up with a RGIII, Schaub, Cutler, Palmer in the later rounds. And if he's not there, I typically try to see who falls to the 6th round (from Mannings, Rivers, sometimes Romo) or wait and target Ryan around the 7th or 8th round.

Considering you'll have your top 2 RB's (ideally) and your top WR/ Gronk/Grahm (and WR is pretty deep this year), is it wise to go for one of the Vick/Romo types in the 4th, Manning(s)/RIvers in the 5th - 6th ...or simply wait and fill the rest of your spots?

I'm curious to hear other peoples thoughts

[petedog9]

I have two options of course depending on how a draft plays out and who is available when I pick. I never have a set course of action as a draft is a fluid event that can change a gameplan from pick to pick.

You either use 1st or early 2nd on Brees or Rodgers etc. if they are the best available when it's your turn ...

OR :

Sit tight and wait until late to grab a QB and stock up at other positions. I see an easy 12-14 servicable starting QBS this year. If I wait late to grab one, I probably grab two of them and play matchups throughout the year. I often see a few really decent QBS fall way later then they should because guys have already drafted a QB and are playing catchup at other posisions. Some great values can be had this way.

My current QB rankings... * = guys I like

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (late 1st or early second)
Drew Brees, Saints

Tom Brady, Patriots (round 3-4_
Matthew Stafford, Lions *
Cam Newton, Panthers


Philip Rivers, Chargers (Round 5-7)
Eli Manning, Giants *
Mike Vick, Eagles

Matt Ryan, Falcons * (round 7 and beyond)
Jay Cutler, Bears
Tony Romo, Cowboys
Peyton Manning, Broncos *
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers *
RGIII
Matt Schaub, Texans

[benb18a]

Anybody in that bottom tier is capable of putting up; 4500/30 this year IMHO. The absolute last thing I'm doing this year is taking a second tier quarterback, as they're simply not on the same level as the Big Three who are extremely consistent...and are breaking records left and right. Chances are you get the same production out of the second tier as you do with your 7th round QB. They just have a slightly higher ceiling, and some of them even have a low floor (Rivers' 20 picks and Vick's putrid 2011) and you're paying twice as much for them. I wouldn't touch them with a 39.5' pole

[Wood Chipper]

Well I would aim for Eli or Romo. Eli will not get injured and Romo has scored 22.4 to 22.6 ppg for the past 4 years in standard scoring.

[m16a]

Since I've played fantasy for long enough, I still have a lot of trouble bringing myself to draft a QB in the first round. That said, my drafting this year just hasn't put me in a position to take either Rodgers or Brees in the first round. Taking a look at Calc's ADPs in PPR scoring, I really like the value of Rivers, Ryan, and Cutler. Rivers is going on average 74th overall (7.03), Ryan is going 79th (7.08) and Cutler is going 97th (9.01). All three of those guys have the chance to put up great numbers. Rivers will always pass and pass and pass and pass. Just how things are. MattyIce has all the tools for the breakout (aging RB, two excellent WRs, a legendary TE who will want to go out with a bang), and I like the Cutler/Marshall reunion, not to mention a decent shot of having Jeffrey contribute, as well as one of the best pass catching backs in the league in Forte. If I go Cutler, I probably shoot a little sooner for a back of the likes of Dalton or Fitzpatrick, just to make sure he doesn't go and injure himself or be terrible again.

Anybody in that bottom tier is capable of putting up; 4500/30 this year IMHO. The absolute last thing I'm doing this year is taking a second tier quarterback, as they're simply not on the same level as the Big Three who are extremely consistent...and are breaking records left and right. Chances are you get the same production out of the second tier as you do with your 7th round QB. They just have a slightly higher ceiling, and some of them even have a low floor (Rivers' 20 picks and Vick's putrid 2011) and you're paying twice as much for them. I wouldn't touch them with a 39.5' pole

This is also a good point. I tend to agree with what Ben is saying here in addition to my thoughts.

[saemick]

While I agree that Rodgers/Brees/Brady are huge assets and extremely safe picks, they're always taken too early for me, so I don't even count on them.

that being said here's a few thoughts:

Guys I'm not 100% sold on:

Stafford = taken way too early for me and is still a little injury prone IMO
Rivers = seems to be going earlier than he should & loss of VJax *** as mentioned above, if he's there in the 7th round, then I'd reconsider my stand
Big Ben = no Wallace yet & who knows how bad this rotator cuff really is
Peyton = people seem to be drafting him earlier & earlier. If I can get him in like the 8th, sure, but earlier than that I'm nervous about his neck)
Schaub = Injusy risk / AJ = getting older

Vick
While having a disappointing 2011, he's now got a full training camp to get into shape, has one of the best RB's in the game to take the heat off him (who can also catch out of the backfield), and some very good WR's...not to mention he still has his legs. People were touting him as a 1st round talent last year, b/c of that, I feel people have soured on him. If he can come close to his 2010 #'s, I think he's a value in the 4th.

Eli
I like Eli. If I can grab him in the 6th-7th round, I think I'd do that, but he had a career year last year and still had some bad games, mistakes, and I feel he's in line for a slight regression from 2011

Later QB's:

Cutler - I'm in Chicago, so there's always a chance he goes a little earlier than I'd take him, but withthe addition of Marshall & Jeffery, no more 7-step drops, I think he could have a very good year and can be a good QB1

Ryan - I think he's my main target for QB's after round 6. He's got 2 great WR's, still a good RB (who's in line for less touches) and I 'm on the hype train for this being a potential breakout year for him.

RGIII - Love his "Cam-potential", but with him being a rookie, there's always that option to bust. Not sold on him being my QB1 unless I have a good backup to pair with him

[Dr. Duran Duran]

Since I've played fantasy for long enough, I still have a lot of trouble bringing myself to draft a QB in the first round. That said, my drafting this year just hasn't put me in a position to take either Rodgers or Brees in the first round. Taking a look at Calc's ADPs in PPR scoring, I really like the value of Rivers, Ryan, and Cutler. Rivers is going on average 74th overall (7.03), Ryan is going 79th (7.08) and Cutler is going 97th (9.01). All three of those guys have the chance to put up great numbers. Rivers will always pass and pass and pass and pass. Just how things are. MattyIce has all the tools for the breakout (aging RB, two excellent WRs, a legendary TE who will want to go out with a bang), and I like the Cutler/Marshall reunion, not to mention a decent shot of having Jeffrey contribute, as well as one of the best pass catching backs in the league in Forte. If I go Cutler, I probably shoot a little sooner for a back of the likes of Dalton or Fitzpatrick, just to make sure he doesn't go and injure himself or be terrible again.

Anybody in that bottom tier is capable of putting up; 4500/30 this year IMHO. The absolute last thing I'm doing this year is taking a second tier quarterback, as they're simply not on the same level as the Big Three who are extremely consistent...and are breaking records left and right. Chances are you get the same production out of the second tier as you do with your 7th round QB. They just have a slightly higher ceiling, and some of them even have a low floor (Rivers' 20 picks and Vick's putrid 2011) and you're paying twice as much for them. I wouldn't touch them with a 39.5' pole

This is also a good point. I tend to agree with what Ben is saying here in addition to my thoughts.

I 100 percent agree with both posts here. Why reach early for a guy like Cam Newton or Michael Vick when the guys at the next level (Rivers, Ryan, Eli, Cutler, etc...) are all good bets to throw for 4,000+ and 30 scores? It makes no sense at all. I think people who take Newton early are taking the "sexy" pick simply because he's a hot name right now. Does he have a high ceiling? Sure. But I can't see the point in taking a second round pick and using it on a guy who's probably only marginally better than the players who can be grabbed several rounds later. I'll take a stud TE (Graham or Gronk) or a top flight WR (Roddy, Hakeem, Fitz, Jennings, etc...) in the 2nd before I take a guy like Cam Newton.

[2ksports]

I agree with the Cutler projection. Barring injury, he has the weapons around him to convert throws in the redzone, and he's always had the yards. I'll wait on my QB this year, just like every year.

[moochman]

I actually like Big Ben's value this season. Sure there is risk with his shoulder, but he played with it and has had oof season to let what I assume is a light tear, heal. The Stillers continue to try and shore up the Oline, but have some real issues at RB. Mendanhall has a long way to go yet, and Redman isn't a game-breaking threat. Could be that the Stillers are going to have to air it out a lot this year.
I would want to be sure to get a backup that won't kill you if Ben fails.
If Ryan falls far enough, his potential is arguably top 5. lots of weapons. Great value.

[TorMenT]

I actually like Big Ben's value this season. Sure there is risk with his shoulder, but he played with it and has had oof season to let what I assume is a light tear, heal. The Stillers continue to try and shore up the Oline, but have some real issues at RB. Mendanhall has a long way to go yet, and Redman isn't a game-breaking threat. Could be that the Stillers are going to have to air it out a lot this year.
I would want to be sure to get a backup that won't kill you if Ben fails.
If Ryan falls far enough, his potential is arguably top 5. lots of weapons. Great value.

I avoid Roethlisberger at all costs. He is an injury machine and he just sprained his ankle yesterday in practice so that's one more injury for the old guy.