When I put out the update to my 2012 rankings, I did something a little crazy, putting Matt Ryan ahead of Cam Newton. According to Fantasy Football Calculator as of Aug. 5, 2012, Newton has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 2.09, while Ryan’s ADP rests at 7.01. Obviously, I have some ’splainin’ to do. Newton [...]
Interesting. I think it will probably be fairly close either way, but Newton definitely has some regression to the mean coming for his rushing TD totals, which were really his bread and butter last year. He also has given defenses a full year of tape now to figure out how to stop him, Steve Smith is a year older, etc.
A bit risky - but looking ahead - Cam's rushing TDs most likely will drop - repeating 14 will be downright ridiculous. Cam also tends to throw his portion of INTs. One thing Matty Ice has always been good at is consistency.
I have Cam's numbers this year at 9 rushing TDs, with 25 throwing TDs, and 15 INTs. For Matty Ice: I am predicting Matt to have 29 total tds, 13 INTS.
Cam's rushing yards are what make him the difference - I project Newton to end the season with a total of 367 points, averaging 22.9/game.
Matty Ice comes in with a projected total of 320, averaging 20/game.
While it may not be a flashy move - there isn't much of a dropoff when waiting after the top 4 QB (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford) - grabbing a few key position players and sneaking Ryan 2 rounds later. You are only losing 3 points a game. However - the key thing you are giving up: we know what Ryan's ceiling is - he has reached it the past three years. We aren't sure what we will get out of Cam this year.
Fantasyfballchamps wrote:A bit risky - but looking ahead - Cam's rushing TDs most likely will drop - repeating 14 will be downright ridiculous. Cam also tends to throw his portion of INTs. One thing Matty Ice has always been good at is consistency.
I have Cam's numbers this year at 9 rushing TDs, with 25 throwing TDs, and 15 INTs. For Matty Ice: I am predicting Matt to have 29 total tds, 13 INTS.
Cam's rushing yards are what make him the difference - I project Newton to end the season with a total of 367 points, averaging 22.9/game.
Matty Ice comes in with a projected total of 320, averaging 20/game.
While it may not be a flashy move - there isn't much of a dropoff when waiting after the top 4 QB (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford) - grabbing a few key position players and sneaking Ryan 2 rounds later. You are only losing 3 points a game. However - the key thing you are giving up: we know what Ryan's ceiling is - he has reached it the past three years. We aren't sure what we will get out of Cam this year.
gotta disagree with the last couple sentences. i don't think we've seen matt ryan reach his ceiling. falcons will be very pass heavy this year to save turner for the playoffs and julio and roddy are among the best WR duos in football. i love ryan this year and don't really understand his low ADP.
Yeah the Falcons have already stated they want to give Turner less carries, and I think the drafting of Julio Jones goes to show they also want to convert to a more pass heavy offense that is all the rage in today's NFL.
Look at the Jaguars last year, MJD led the league in rushing and they finished 6th in total defense and they still finished 5-11. You have to pass in today's league to win and I'm sure the Falcons' coaches and every other coach is understanding of that now.
I like Matt Ryan as a bit of a sleeper this year just because of the Falcons easy schedule down the stretch. I don't know if I could put him above Newton just because I think that Cam still will be scoring and as asked to throw a lot. I do agree that Cam's numbers will go down becuase defenses now have 16 game tapes and a full off season to get ready for him. They will force him into making the thorws that hes isn't comfotable with so he'll have to continue to develop in order to keep his numbers where they were in his rookie season. I was listening to this podcast called Fantasy Football Auctioneer on iTunes and they were ranking their QB's and they brought up some good points on Matt Ryan. Atlanta is looking to throw more and like I said they have an easy schedule as far as matchups for the offense. THey also mentioned that if Jacquizz Rodgers gets more burn then that could mean a lot more screen passes and potentially more point for Ryan. The biggest things will be the play calling must improve and Ryan has to be more accurate on his deeper passes. In my auction I have no problem waiting a little later and getting someone like Ryan at QB becuase I feel like that allows me to load up at other positions and I have confidence I can win a pool with Ryan.
I am much lower on Ryan than most people. I think we had these same conversations about him next year and there was no major progression. To me his production has reached his ability. He's good, but not elite and I don't see a new level achieved this year. I'll take him on my team, but I don't expect his numbers to be any better than his 2011 season.
SI's Peter King says 5,000 passing yards for Matt Ryan is "very realistic." As King notes, "the handcuffs are off" Ryan in Dirk Koetter's offense. The Falcons have shifted to an up-tempo, aggressive, vertical offense that will ride or die with their quarterback. Ryan shouldn't have a problem blowing past his previous season-high of 4,177 passing yards, set last season. In Julio Jones, Roddy White, Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has an elite set of weapons. Source: SI.com Aug 13 - 9:56 AM
Ryan seems to be in sync with his new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter:
As soon as league rules allowed coaches and players to get together in the offseason, Ryan and Koetter began meeting regularly and discussing what the playbook should look like.
“There are a lot of things we’ve done well over the last few years, and the first thing Dirk asked me was what I liked and what I felt most comfortable with,’’ Ryan said. “Then, we took the things I said and looked at our production in those situations and some of it was surprising because we didn’t have as much success as I would have thought in some of the things I said I was most comfortable with, and we had some pretty good success with some of the things I didn’t necessarily think I liked.
"We also watched a lot of film of Jacksonville (where Koetter was offensive coordinator last year), and we talked a lot about why they did certain things at certain times. There was a lot of very good give-and-take. He’s extremely open to input, which is great for players, and I know he sat down and did the same thing with some other guys. But he also has his own opinions and is firm on his own opinions, and I like that about him.’’
The Falcons have been very public about some of the ways their offense will change. They said they don’t want Turner having to endure a 300-carry season. They said they want to use the screen pass more, after almost completely ignoring it in recent years. And they’ve made it very clear that they want to improve their downfield passing game.
What the actual playbook looks like is likely to be a combination of what both Koetter and the Falcons have done in the past.
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by WebHamster » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:10 am 
